Timing & trends

The new edition of the “In GOLD We TRUST” report is out. In his 7th report precious metals analyst Ronald Stoeferle takes an holistic view on the latest developments in the gold market. Mr. Stoeferle has set up his own gold fund recently at Incrementum Liechtenstein AG.

This edition of the report is characterized by a focus on the monetary aspect(s) of gold, a subject which remains highly underexposed in almost every report of major financial institutions. Because of the unprecedented global monetary policy experiments the need for monetary insurance has never been greater. The consensus could be convinced that the gold bull market has ended but In GOLD we Trust 2013 points to the fundamental arguments why the gold bull market remains intact.

Furthermore, this edition is the first which contains a quantitative model of the gold price. The model justifies a considerable risk premium to current price levels, even if small probabilities of occurrence of extreme scenarios are modeled. Based on conservative assumptions, the long-term price target is $2,230.

……read report and view charts HERE

Grandich: “the” bottom in gold is within 48 hours or so!

Posted by Peter Grandich - Grandich.com

on Thursday, 27 June 2013 6:16

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To anyone still favoring gold you may feel as I do; totally beaten up, defeated and like 12 years went out the window. Congratulations!!!

The parties who were behind what will go down in history as one of the greatest take downs of any market that began in earnest back in April, have pretty much now achieved everything they wanted. Gold and silver are bruised, battered and in shambles. One either feels its a loss cause and/or will not see the highs of 2011 again in their lifetime. The bandwagon calling gold dead, a relic and never to shine again is overloaded and busting at the seams (even though most on that bandwagon missed most if not all the ride up and will miss the next leg as well).

As much as all the members of the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd that litters the offices of the financial services industry and much of the spineless, gutless financial journalists who are lapdogs to the Talking Heads that lead the “happy” crowd around by their noses would like you now to believe (that the useless, non-interest paying relic known as gold is down and out), it is not over for gold. Most of the reasons to own it remain and thanks to what has happened (starting with the take down) have given new reasons to own gold.

Reasoning at this moment is basically useless as emotions of fear are fully entrenched. But in this dark, spinning out of control moment, I’m going to leave you with a movie clip and hopefully like me, there’s no surrender in your belly and as hard as it will be – join me and get back in this war.

…..read Peter’s Canada’s Top 10 HERE

Jim Rogers: China: What I Plan To Do

Posted by Jim Rogers via Hard Assets Investor

on Thursday, 27 June 2013 0:23

china 2924 600x450“In the 19th century, America had a horrible Civil War. We had several depressions, very little rule of law, very few human rights. And yet we became a pretty successful country in the 20th century. So China is going to have plenty of problems. What I plan to do is, when I see serious problems in China again, I hope I’m smart enough to pick up the phone and buy more China.” – in Index Universe

Related ETFs: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI)

….other thoughts by Jim Rogers. He was interviewed by Tekoa Da Silva this morning who said: 

“It was an especially powerful interview, as Jim spoke towards the relentless downward pressure on gold, the upward explosion in interest rates, central bank money printing, and how to protect yourself ahead of the disastrous times he sees coming”

When asked if we’re seeing forced liquidation leading the smash down in gold this morning, Jim said, “We certainly are. There are a lot of leveraged players who are now being forced to sell. Usually when you have this kind of forced liquidation, you’re getting closer to a bottom, maybe not the final bottom, but certainly close to a bottom. I even bought a little bit [today].”

…..read more on Bonds, the Fed, the riots in Brazil HERE

 

 

What The Gold Price is Telling Us

Posted by Michael J. Kosares: USA Gold

on Wednesday, 26 June 2013 8:05

Is the gold price trying to tell us something? 
Is another 2008 lurking in the shadows?

monthlygoldchart6-2013

This monthly gold chart is drawn on the logarithmic scale in order to remove some of the melodrama to the latest correction. Linear charts emphasize nominal price movement while a log chart emphasizes the percentage movement. By reviewing gold’s latest correction on a percentage basis, we can put things into a little bit better perspective. The 2008 correction was 26%; the current correct thus far has been 30%. In short, we’ve been here before though you wouldn’t know it from all the catterwauling at our favorite financial cable network and other media outlets (not to mention Wall Street itself). Granted we might not, as yet, have reached bottom, but then again, we could be close.

In preparing this chart, I couldn’t help but look for similarities between 2008 and the present.

…….read it all HERE

Timing is Everything

Posted by Mark Leibovit via Michael Campbell

on Tuesday, 25 June 2013 14:21

PerfectTimingPics001After the smashups in the markets last week, the timing was perfect to have the opinion of a guest, Mark Leibovit, who has proven himself as Timer’s Digest Timer of the Decade, Timer of the Year and Gold Market Timer of the Year. 
 
In the interview below, Mike not only gets Mark’s opinion on which direction he thinks each market is going, but also what condition he thinks each market is in sentiment wise. Perhaps more importantly, Mike gets Mark to reveal what specific target levels he sees as important. Levels, that if touched or breached are places to either commit cash, or liquidate existing positions. 
 
The interview is far more detailed and it is strongly recommended to take the 24 minutes to listen to both Mark’s and Mike’s opinion of the markets:
 
{mp3}mtjune22hourml2{/mp3}

 
Here is the short version of what Mark sees coming:
 
Stocks: 
 
Last week’s 2.5% drop in North American Stock Markets re-confirmed Mark’s view since May 22nd that we are in a downtrend.  (comment on the audio from 0:00 to 11:15)
 
That said, Mark doesn’t think the Fed under Bernanke, or the even more aggressive upcoming Yellen is going to let the Stock Market enter a Bear Market. In short, Mark would remain bearish short to near term until he get’s a buy signal. For parameters, we can drop another 500-1000 points in the Dow without violating the long term uptrend and Bull Market. 
 
Mark doesn’t see any signal yet from the Markets or from the actions of the Fed that there has been a change in the Fed policy that has been driving the markets for the last 4 years. The Fed moves to bail out the market and the market responds to the upside. Simply put, unless and until there is some signal of change expressed by the markets, it is best to expect the very same scenario that has been unfolding since Quantitive Easing began to occur again. 
 
Bonds: 
 
Mark has been bearish on Bonds, saying that we have seen the low in interest rates (the high in Bond prices). He has not changed his opinion, although he thinks we have gotten a little extended, and the big drop in 30 year Bond pricing has met some of the downside targets for the moment. (comment on the audio from 11:15 – 14:55)
 
The Big Picture? The 40 year trend in declining long term Bond rates has come to an end. In Mark’s opinion over the next 4 or 5 years the trend is going to be in the opposite direction to that of the 40 year trend of rates coming down. 
 
Gold: 
 
At the May 23rd Money Talks Emergency Gold Summit Mark said he was not confident in the Gold market, and that he thought that some new lows were coming in prices. We got those new lows last thursday June 20th when spot gold closed at the 1280. While Mark’s lower downside targets are still in play he is personally doing some nibbling here. (comment on the audio from 14:55 – 17:51)
 
Bottom line: Mark thinks we are going so much higher in coming years. 
 
Silver: We approached his target number of 19, striking 19:31 last Friday. Bottom line, Mark would rather see a bottoming formation on the charts before getting in so that he has the wind at his back, instead of trying to pick the low and taking significantly more risk. If after a bounce the 19 level doesn’t hold the next target below is 14!
 
Oil: Looks to him like we have a small top at the 98 – 99 level, and much lower levels to come. The only Wild Card being a War in the Middle East. 
 
US Dollar: Bullish and higher targets from here. 
 
Canadian Dollar: Bearish, lower targets from here. 
 
Euro: Very Bearish