Real Estate

Greater Vancouver Condo Market Update

A divergent trend has begun to establish itself in the Greater Vancouver Condo Market. Beginning in June 2019 prices were at $643,471 which bounced off our technical line and began a minor uptrend that propelled the market higher peaking in September 2019 with prices reaching $673,220. The November data produced and average sales price of $670,811 indicating a lower high than the previous high in September. This trend will be resolved with a clear and concise winner, Eitel Insights anticipates seeing the Greater Vancouver Condo average sales prices take another leg lower in 2020 and beyond.

 

Overall the market is down 11% from the peak in 2018, and while year over year is only down 3% that is after this recent rally that began when prices were down close to 7% from the November 2018 sales price.

Sales numbers have been touted as a sign of strength by the Real Estate Board, however the chart above in our opinion does not share their sentiment. Yes, November sales are up 400 year over year. However they conveniently don’t mention that last year was one of the worst on record. Sales will not dissipate to nothing there is always a segment of demand in Greater Vancouver. Need based purchasers, however we anticipate the inventory will drastically jump higher over the upcoming two years and that will disarm any potential rebound believed to be occurring by optimists.

The inventory has seemingly taken the 4th quarter of 2019 off, after realizing an aggressive growth trend for the past 2 years. However the new monthly listed inventory is only lower by 300 properties on a year over year basis, and the overall inventory is lower by 800 properties. We attribute this to fatigue on part of sellers that haven’t been able to achieve a sales after remaining on the market for a lengthy period of time and simply removing the listing for the Holiday Season.

Eitel Insights sees a great imbalance currently taking hold in the Condo Market. As evidenced by the chart below which is the average days on market. Currently to achieve a property takes on average 44 days which is continually climbing higher. Indicating a real imbalance of “listed properties” versus “sellable properties”.

I will leave you with this analogy for the Greater Vancouver Condo market. Picking yourself up off the floor doesn’t mean you will win the fight. Again Real Estate cycles exist, we point out where we are in any given cycle across Canada. Here in Vancouver the market still needs to go lower before the cycle has been filled and the market can again see prices increase.  For an individual report please visit www.eitelinsights.com

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We’ve followed New Story’s efforts to create affordable 3D-printed homes for a while, including its first prototype model and ambitious plan to build a community in Latin America. That plan has now been put into action and the non-profit has revealed what it calls the world’s first 3D-printed community, which is currently under construction in…Click here for full article.

It’s a Wonderful Time of Year to Face Financial Ghosts.

What are your ghosts?

Ghosts of the past are notorious for creeping into the present, especially when holidays roll around.

If you’ve unpacked an ornament from 30 years ago or got lost in a memory while watching A Charlie Brown Christmas, then you understand.

The ghosts of Financial Mistakes Past are sometimes not so kind. In other words, they’re not mindful of seasons; they aren’t warm and fuzzy either. Rattling chains of the ghosts of financial mistakes can be uninvited guests for years to come.

December is the month to objectively review your financial history – expose the good and bad – then, outline tactics to sever ominous chains and sprout wings to the beneficial for 2020. Oh, watch for financial disciplines or lack of them that may conjure the ghosts of financial future.

Just because I partner with others on personal finance challenges doesn’t mean I don’t own my share of mistakes. Thankfully, my Ghosts of Financial Mistakes Past lose their power to frighten me, especially as I too assess my consistent progress to slay them. As a financial professional, let’s just say I remain ‘fiscally aware’ throughout the year. Hey, it’s my job.

This month, as you prepare your favorite meals from recipes that have been in the family for decades, watch a timeless film, (White Christmas is my favorite), and go through old photographs, take some time to unwrap financial gifts and pack away the mistakes.

Here are three ideas to get your started. CLICK for complete article

Welcoming some voices from the wilderness with this silver buy recommendation ~Brad Cooke. CPM Group today issued a silver buy recommendation for investors with an intermediate-term investment horizon, which CPM puts as a two- to three-year time horizon.

“The silver market is at a critical vertex at present,” CPM Group’s Vice President in charge of Research Rohit Savant said in announcing the buy recommendation. “Silver market fundamentals are precariously similar to the critically poor conditions that existed in 1989. Our expectations are that the market may avoid the long period of net investor silver selling and low prices that followed from that year, however. Prices seem more likely to rise in the years ahead rather that to decline. There are many external as well as internal factors behind our analysis. That said, super bulls will continue to be disappointed by silver.”

“CPM has waited until now for a variety of reasons known to our clients. For one, the market has not supported strongly higher prices over the past few years. As a result prices have not moved sharply off their 2015 – 2016 lows, as the attached chart shows,” CPM Managing Partner Jeffrey M. Christian said.

Make 5 Minutes to Read This – It’s Important

In September overnight borrowing rates jumped 500% in less than 4 hours. And nobody’s talking about why. Too bad because it’s a major warning.

but then again – so is the pension strike in France.

and – the civil violence in Hong Kong, Chile, Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia and Columbia.

plus – the fact that Deutsche Bank just sold $50 billion in distressed emerging market debt to Goldman Sachs.

Forgive me for getting right to it but the above is just a foreshadowing of the major trends that will dominate starting in January and going through 2022. The list is a long one – liquidity crisis, pension problems, social unrest, European banking problems and an emerging market debt crisis.

As Martin Armstrong wrote in July, “I have never witnessed such complete disruption to the world economy on a massive scale of this nature.” And it will impact currencies, stocks, interest rates, precious metals and commodity prices.

The volatility is going to be profound. That’s one of the lessons to take from the sharp increase in overnight lending rates on September 16th when borrowers went from paying 2% to 10% in a matter of hours. But what’s not being said publicly is – much like in 2008 with Lehman Brothers, AIG and Bear Sterns – banks didn’t want to lend to other financial institutions because they didn’t know what exposure borrowers had to Deutsche Bank’s problems.

The Federal Reserve was forced to step in and provide an average of $75 billion a day to keep the overnight lending market operational, but it won’t fix the underlying problem of declining confidence and liquidity. And the Fed is still injecting money with no end in sight.

Declining confidence and lack of liquidity is the recipe for a “no bid” market, which is what keeps me up at night because it won’t be the last time. (Let that sink in for a moment)

We are on the cusp of the next phase of the monetary crisis and the liquidity problem is just one aspect – and it’s not difficult to understand.

Quick question, would you lend your money to the government or a bank if they promised to give you less back in five or ten years? Probably not – and that’s the problem with negative yield bonds. Instead of buying them, individuals and pools of capital are choosing to put their US cash in safety deposit boxes or other safe keeping thereby removing liquidity from the system. Keep in mind that 70% of all US cash is held outside the US – and that’s creating a big problem.

The central banks aren’t talking about it because they don’t want to spook investors, because once confidence erodes you get a situation like the credit crisis in 2008.

I appreciate that you’re not reading or hearing about this in the mainstream media – and there is certainly no shortage of opinions, predictions and recommendations. The only way to evaluate and judge whether one approach or model is better than another is the examine the track record.

And on that score I don’t know a better one than what we’ve produced at the World Outlook Financial Conference. We unequivocally forecast the record bull market in US stocks since March 2009 and have not wavered. We recommended every dip in quality stocks as a buying opportunity. Our World Outlook Conference Small Cap Portfolio, done in conjunction with Keystone Financial, has never failed to return double digit profits. As I write today, the 2019 recommended portfolio is up 61%.

As we’ve been predicting on MoneyTalks since 2010, the European Union would come apart. Then, as predicted, Brexit went through alongside the rise of other anti-EU parties. And given the current protests in France over the attempt to adjust unaffordable public sector pensions – don’t be surprised if you start hearing rumblings in France about leaving the EU.

Our recognition that the problems in Europe would push hundreds of billions of dollars worth of euros into the US has been key in our recommendation to buy US dollars, stocks and bonds. Since the 2013 WOFC we’ve recommended putting 30% of your money in US dollar denominated assets and cash. We upped that to 50% in 2014. We first recommended playing the euro to go down when it was at 1.54 to the dollar – it’s now in the 1.10 range – and my bet is that there’s more money to be made on the downside.

The US dollar related recommendations illustrate the approach we take at the World Outlook Financial Conference and on MoneyTalks. You start by getting the big picture right and then devise strategies to take advantage of it.

At thi year’s conference we’ll talk about when that major, pivotal US dollar trend will reverse. You can’t afford to get this wrong.

My Point

Maybe we’ve been lucky that every year our specific recommendations have paid for the price of a ticket several times over. Although past performance is not a guarantee of future results, featuring analysts with exceptional track records like Martin Armstrong, Ryan Irvine and Mark Leibovit (who in September, Timers Digest named gold market and stock market Timer of the Year) – puts the odds in our favour.

No Surprise 

As you probably guessed, I want you to come to the World Outlook Financial Conference. Why? Because we’re living in a time of historic change and people who don’t understand what’s going on are going to be financial road kill. Of course, many people already are – but conference attendees who followed our past recommendations into the US dollar, US stocks, real estate in Vancouver, Phoenix, Montreal and Victoria, and have bought the World Outlook Small Cap Portfolio have done well.

But I also understand that not everyone is interested in their personal finances – and I respect that, but I’ll warn you that whether you’re interested or not – what’s coming starting in January through 2022 will have a dramatic impact on your financial well being

I hope to see you at the Conference.

All my best,

Mike

PS – The World Outlook Conference is Friday Feb 7th and Saturday, Feb. 8th at the Westin Bayshore in Vancouver. For tickets and other details CLICK HERE.

The Dramatic Rise and Fall of Cannabis Company Stocks

The Dramatic Rise and Fall of Cannabis Company Stocks

The unprecedented expansion of cannabis across North America took the investment world by storm, as investors raced to cash in on the “green rush”.

Yet, even as changing regulations unlock new opportunities, it seems as though the cannabis stock bubble has already burst — at least temporarily.

Today’s visualization dives into the roller coaster of cannabis company stock valuations over the past few years, and which companies remain standing in this hazy market.

A Wild Ride for Cannabis Stocks

The North American Marijuana Index tracks the equally-weighted stocks of leading companies operating in the legal cannabis industry in U.S. and Canada. Companies listed on the index must have at least 50% of their business strategy focused on the legal industry, including ancillary operations that support companies and consumers…CLICK for complete article