Economic Outlook

The Road to Canada’s COVID-19 Border Failure

When the COVID-19 crises first hit in late January, Ottawa MPs of all political stripes weren’t satisfied with the federal government’s assurances that Canada had the problem under control.

For the next two months — until major changes were made at last to our border policy in late March — the Liberal, Bloc, NDP and Conservative MPs dug into that border policy, asking numerous probing questions, examining the motives and reasons behind the initial and unyielding federal response in those two months.

Here is a detailed timeline of the questions those MPs asked and the answers they got in the House of Commons and at Parliamentary health committee meetings.

Also included in the timeline — as a contrast to the approach taken by the Canadian federal government — are the actions taken by the government in Taiwan (compiled byDr. Jason Wang et al), a nation that has so far successfully slowed the spread of the virus, despite close travel and economic ties to China, and despite being expected to have the second biggest outbreak of the virus… CLICK for the complete article

New US Jobless Claims Hit Record 3.28M As Coronavirus Strikes Economy

Initial jobless claims in the week ending March 20 reached 3.283 million, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday. The number is more than triple the estimate of 1 million new claims.

The prior week’s figure was 281,000. The number reported Thursday far exceeds the prior initial jobless claims record of 695,000 in 1982, Bloomberg reported.

U.S. continuing claims for March 13 were at 1.803 million. The prior reading was revised from an initial 1.701 million to 1.702 million.

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The spread of the coronavirus means more than 1 million Americans are forecast to have filed for unemployment benefits last week, according to The Wall Street Journal…CLICK for complete article

The Best And Worse Case Scenario For The U.S. Stock Market

As the carnage continues with stocks now ignoring anything the Fed throws at them — and the Fed has pretty well thrown everything it has used in the past and is now moving into bailout mode — where is the US stock market crash likely to to stop falling? So far, it’s been limit-down all the way.

My best case scenario for the US Stock Market Crash

I am completely convinced it won’t end better than this, and I think it is only likely to be a resting platform unless the Fed leaps into strategies I’ve been talking about in Patron Posts that are currently illegal.

This level is based on the zone where the bull stopped running for two years and churned sideways as a place it hung out when the Fed stopped QE. That was back when I said the market would crash because of the end of QE, and it didn’t quite do exactly but, but the bull was broken. The market stalled for two years, so not really a bull in my books — at best a bull in a coma).

With the Dow ignoring the Fed’s kitchen-sink solutions again today and ending down more than an unlucky 1300 (at 1,3338, having touched again on 2,000 down intraday), it looks like we’ll enter the market’s old hang out in the rectangular safety zone sometime this week….CLICK for complete article

32 Million Americans Could Be Out Of A Job Soon

A new poll shows nearly 19% of Americans have been laid off from their jobs or have experienced a reduction in their work hours as a result of measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak.

The survey, conducted by The Marist Poll, found that the proportion affected grew for lower-income households, with 25% of those making less than $50,000 a year reporting that they had been let go or had been scheduled for reduced hours.  The same poll found that about 56% of Americans still consider the coronavirus outbreak a “real threat”, while 38% said it was “blown out of proportion”.

Travel and hospitality industries have been hit the most.

Severe drops in demand, quarantine measures and various other travel restrictions are expected to spread across virtually the entire economy. So far, though, restaurants, bars, hotels and airlines are among the hardest-hit sectors.

In the travel industry alone, a report by the U.S. Travel Association is projecting 4.6 million jobs lost this year….CLICK for complete article

03-17-20 Coronavirus

Symptoms include panic buying and hoarding toilet paper.