“Intermediate a sell – Long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan” – From “The Bottom Line” below

Todd Market Forecast for Wednesday November 13, 2013

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW                                       + 71 on 900 net advances

NASDAQ COMP                          + 46 on 850 net advances

SHORT TERM TREND                  Bullish (change)

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND       Bearish

  STOCKS:   In the early going, very early, the Dow dropped sharply being down 78. But, within 5 minutes the bottom was seen and the averages surged for the remainder of the day.

The initial weakness emanated from declines in Europe on concerns about the limits of the ECB.

But, on our side of the Atlantic, traders seemed to be fixated on the confirmation hearings for Janet Yellen tomorrow. She is the most dovish member of the FOMC and it is anticipated that she will talk about the need for even more money printing in spite of the fact that QE has been a miserable failure. Just look at where our economy is after 5 years of providing a sugar high for the stock market.

GOLD:  Gold was up $2. It’s very oversold.  

CHART:  We’ve had weak breadth and an excess of exuberance. I didn’t think the S&P 500 would only give us a sideways correction, but it seems to have done just that.

It broke out of a congestion range today (top arrow) and the McClellan Oscillator has curled up from an oversold condition (bottom arrow). I’m concerned about the euphoria, but I don’t like fighting the tape.

TORONTO EXCHANGE:     Toronto was up 45.                       

S&P\TSX Venture Comp: The Venture Comp was flat.                                                          

BONDS:                        Bonds curled up from an oversold condition.                                                                                                    

THE REST:                    The dollar moved lower. Silver was lower. Crude oil was higher and copper got murdered.                                                          

BOTTOM LINE:  

Our intermediate term systems are on a sell signal. We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.

Ed Note: For subscribers there are 8 Buy and Sell recommendations as follows:

We’re moving back to a buy for bonds as of today November 13.                   

We’re moving back to a sell for the dollar and a buy for the euro as of today November 13.                             

We’re on a buy for gold as of October 24.    

We’re on a buy for silver as of October 24.           

We’re on a sell for crude oil as of November 5.             

We’re on a sell for copper as of August 29.                  

We’re on a buy for the Toronto Stock Exchange as of October 17.          

We are on a buy for the S&P\TSX Venture Comp. as of August 16.

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: 

There were no important releases on Wednesday. On Thursday we get the trade deficit and jobless claims. 

Since everyone is talking about stock market crashes this week, let’s add some context here…

Since the invention of the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the turn of the last century, there have been eleven instances in which stocks declined by more than 35% from peak to trough, or what you would term a market crash. We’ll talk about how the Dow Jones Industrial Average behaved during these crashes as it is ouR oldest index; there was no such thing as the S&P 500 until 1957 and the Nasdaq didn’t come along until later.

The most benign of these eleven crashes took place between January of 2000 and October of 2002. It lasted for 999 days and lopped off 37.8% of the Dow’s price, ending that fall at around 7286. The damage in the tech-heavy Nasdaq was obviously much worse but, unless you had abandoned all of your blue chips to chase dot com stocks exclusively, it wasn’t the end of the world. It should be noted that the tech crash was augmented by the uncovering of massive frauds at both Enron and WorldCom and punctuated with the September 11th attacks.

….read more HERE