Stocks & Equities

Is Cell Therapy the ‘Future of Medicine’?

Screen Shot 2013-07-25 at 10.51.25 AMThe pricey evolutionary tradeoff for walking on two legs is the curse of lower back pain. Jason Kolbert of the Maxim Group understands the power of stem cells as disease-modifying therapies for degenerative disc disease of the spine, a leading-edge, multibillion-dollar indication. Kolbert explores the opportunities that cell therapies offer investors in this interview with The Life Sciences Report, and puts a personal spin on their regenerative promise.

The Life Sciences Report: Jason, I wanted to ask you some questions about degenerative disc disease (DDD) and the use of cell therapy to manage the problem. Some people have said that the spine is a hostile environment. Why is it hostile?

Jason Kolbert: It is a unique environment versus other areas of the body because of the relative dearth of vasculature. In critical limb ischemia (CLI), congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke and other diseases there is a significant amount of blood flow and a lot of metabolic movement to the affected areas. The spine is hostile because it does not have the same level of blood flow and metabolic activity as other tissues.

TLSR: Could that minimal amount of metabolic processing in the disc space mean that cells have a longer time to work if placed directly into lesions?

JK: It’s the opposite of that. When we inject cells into the intervertebral space, we want those living cells to be enriched with a good blood supply because they must react to the local environment. It is important for the cells to survive long enough in the diseased space to exert their therapeutic effects. In the hostile spinal environment, one could argue that cells either have to be more robust or that they must exert their effects in a shorter period of time because of their shorter life expectancy. That’s been one of the problems in using cell therapy in the spine.

TLSR: Briefly, tell me about DDD.

JK: The intervertebral space contains a cartilaginous disc that, under normal and healthy conditions, cushions two neighboring vertebrae and enables normal, pain-free articulation of the spine in the upright human. However, with advancing age there is a progressive loss of the proteoglycan material that confers these stress-mitigating properties on the disc.

Let me address two types of treatment, and I don’t want them to be confused. In dealing with herniated, bulging and generally degenerated discs, we want to stop the pain by stopping the inflammation and hopefully, in a best-case situation, healing the diseased tissue. In a spinal fusion, a direct connection between two vertebrae is made, stopping their ability to move and rub against each other, and thus stopping the potential for nerve encroachment and pain. The two are often linked—that is, disc disease often precedes a fusion (especially if the fusion is not accident- or cancer-related).

TLSR: Endpoints are how we measure efficacy. What is an acceptable endpoint for degenerative disc disease? Clearly, we want the patient to be pain-free, but is that enough?

JK: We, as analysts, are asked that question a lot. Pain can be a subjective endpoint, so whenever we don’t have to use it—and can use a qualitative endpoint instead—we prefer to avoid it. That said, from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA’s) point of view, reduction of pain is an acceptable endpoint and does represent the standard by which it has and will likely continue to approve drugs for DDD.

Secondary endpoints are important as well, and evidence of those may be observed via MRI or radiographic imaging. This is where we get into a lot of nuance. Mesoblast Ltd. (MSB:ASE; MBLTY:OTCPK) ran preclinical studies with its human mesenchymal precursor cells (MPCs) in ovine (sheep) models. Sheep are quadrupeds, resting and walking on four legs. Gravity does not exert the same vertical or upright force on a quadruped as it does on a bipedal mammal like a human. In Mesoblast’s ovine studies there was beautiful radiographic evidence of restoration of vertebral height.

Now researchers want to know if restoration of vertical height should or could be a primary endpoint for Mesoblast’s DDD trial in humans. We don’t think it should because of the inherent differences between two-legged and four-legged mammals. It simply doesn’t make sense to use radiographic imaging of vertical height a primary endpoint, but it could be a secondary endpoint. We also think it may take more time to show radiographic changes versus changes in pain patterns. In terms of a clinical trial and product development strategy, it makes more sense to use pain as the primary endpoint. That is what we expect Mesoblast, and other companies that follow them, to do.

TLSR: Lack of–or diminished–pain is certainly going to be enough from a patient’s perspective. But obviously researchers want to be able to tie in radiographic and/or MRI changes in the same way imaging evidence is used in cancer drug development. Correct?

JK: I would stop you right there. I would not mix cancer and DDD trials. They’re very different. For cancer, the gold standard is to delay mortality—to increase overall survival. In degenerative disc disease, the primary endpoint that the FDA will use is reduction in pain. However, if pain reduction in a specified period of time is supported by qualitative data such as improvement shown in radiographic imaging evidence, that would be the Holy Grail of spinal disease.

TLSR: I’ve dwelled on imaging evidence because pain is very subjective. In the management of chronic or intractable pain, clinicians might give patients a written test every three months to measure their pain-reaction threshold.

JK: That is a great point. As I previously mentioned, as an analyst, I am nervous when pain is a primary endpoint because I want to know how pain was measured and how the trials were run. Were they double-blinded? Were they placebo-controlled? Trial design has to be scrutinized.

CEO Silvio Itescu Describes Mesoblast Ltd.’s Work in the Degenerative Disc Disease Space

However, the reality is that in a disease like DDD, pain reduction is the standard primary endpoint. Can you take someone who’s had degenerative disc disease over a period of 15 to 40 years and reverse the damage? That would be asking cells to do a lot. A trial should not fail if a patient becomes pain-free but doesn’t demonstrate the imaging changes we’d love to see. The reality is, if you can alleviate the suffering from degenerative disc disease and avoid the progression to spinal fusion, then the value you bring to the patient–and the reduction in costs to the system–are huge.

TLSR: One more question about trial design in DDD: In cancer trials we are bound, in most instances, to begin with standard of care—older, approved treatments—before progressing to an experimental drug. In the meantime, patients have become more resistant to any therapy. Can you relate that to Mesoblast’s human studies?

JK: Yes. Mesoblast did something very interesting in its phase 2 human clinical trial for DDD. It recruited steroid-refractory patients—people who had already failed steroids for their pain. Therefore, the fact that cells showed a good result in these patients is very significant. We think the long-term use of steroids does nothing toward healing disc disease. Cell therapy opens up an entire new treatment paradigm in back pain.

TLSR: Does cell therapy have to be superior to current therapies, steroids in particular? Isn’t it enough that cells won’t cause steroid necrosis in the spine?

JK: Mesoblast went around the current therapy issue entirely by enrolling steroid-refractory patients in its trial. If it can demonstrate that cell therapy works in patients who have failed steroids, the company is dealing in a niche market, essentially an unmet medical need. That’s huge.

Going forward, once Mesoblast has FDA approval, how would it extend the label for frontline usage? That’s the question. Would it have to run a control arm against steroids and show noninferiority? That’s more likely than being required to show superiority, particularly if it occurs in a sequence where it has already shown utility in steroid-refractory patients. That is the brilliance of the Mesoblast strategy.

“Delivering the cells is relatively simple and quick, not too dissimilar to an epidural steroid injection.” —Silvio Itescu of Mesoblast Ltd.

Provided a pivotal trial replicates the phase 2 data I would expect to see NeoFuse (immunoselected, culture-expanded, nucleated, allogeneic MPCs), Mesoblast’s spinal fusion cell therapy, approved and on the market as early as 2016. NeoFuse represents a highly cost-effective alternative to open spinal surgery for patients, and would target patients whose discs have degenerated too far for any hope of repair, where fusion is the only viable option to eliminate pain. In other words, cell therapy creates a new alternative for treating DDD patients. Surgery is always an option and is reserved for when less-invasive options have failed.

TLSR: Let’s go to how the cells work. Is engraftment of cells necessary for therapeutic effect?

JK: This is misunderstood by most people in the space, who believe engraftment relates to autologous cells (derived from the same patient to which they will be administered) versus allogeneic cells (from a same-species donor). The fact is that engraftment is not occurring with Mesoblast’s allogeneic cells, but neither is engraftment occurring with most autologous cell therapies.

When we talk about indications in which cell therapies might be useful, such as degenerative disc disease, cardiovascular disease or critical limb ischemia, we’re talking about cells acting like microfactories, producing therapeutic proteins or cytokines for a period of time before going away. It’s not a question of autologous or allogeneic. This is a key point. We don’t believe that engraftment is part of the cell therapy paradigm for the most part. It’s a question of the cell’s ability to react with potency to the local environment, and not a question of one cell type versus another.

TLSR: You are, in essence, saying that there is a paracrine or druglike effect with these microfactories, and then the cells leave. That implies that retreatment will be necessary in the future. In my mind, that could be a limiting factor in the use of allogeneic materials, such as Mesoblast’s cells. I find it interesting that these DDD studies involve a single administration of cells, not multiple doses over time. Is there still an overhang of potential danger in the readministration of these allogeneic cells? The immune system could mount a huge immune response or defense against their reintroduction into a patient.

JK: The answer is no. We have seen no tangible evidence that the readministration of allogeneic cells puts you at risk for any type of anaphylaxis.

We spent a lot of time with Mesoblast and Athersys Inc. (ATHX:NASDAQ) looking at the historical examples and the number of treated patients. We found zero evidence of immune response. We’re aware of the recent events with Pluristem Therapeutics Inc. (PSTI:NASDAQ), which uses full-term maternal placenta-derived adherent stromal cells. The FDA placed a hold on the company’s 74-patient phase 2 study for intermittent claudication/peripheral artery disease due to a serious allergic response that required hospitalization of one patient in the trial. We believe that is a Pluristem-specific issue.

Let’s delve into the immune reaction topic because it is also key. Manufacturing is critical. What are you actually doing to the cells? After they are harvested from the body, do you purify them? Do you enrich them? Do you expand them? Even autologous cell companies are manipulating cells in some way. They may qualify as minimally manipulated, but they’re still manipulated, whether an allogeneic cell or an autologous cell. Therein lies the opportunity to create the basis for an immune reaction. If a cell has been exposed to a particular serum or a contaminant in the manufacturing process, or if it has been roughly treated or exposed to turbulent flow, that contaminant or process may impact cell vitality and create an immune reaction.

You were at the Alliance for Regenerative Medicine Investor Day conference back in April. I was a panelist, and Maxim Group was one of the co-hosts. When NeoStem Inc. (NBS:NYSE.MKT) was finishing up its presentation, it suggested that autologous cells were safe. By inference the company suggested that allogeneic cells were not. We believe that is an example of misdirection, because reality tells us that it’s a question of manufacturing.

The questions are: Does a company have a robust manufacturing process with proper controls? Does the company know, in fact, that the process is safe? In its animal work, Mesoblast went so far as to manufacture both autologous and allogeneic cells to see if there was any difference in immune response. If there were a difference, it could be clearly traced back to the cell itself. And the company found no difference—no immunotoxicity. Mesoblast was validating the robustness of its manufacturing process. So long as a company has that, it will be OK. No one should use Pluristem’s hiccup and the FDA’s clinical hold as evidence that allogeneic is not safe.

TLSR: In other words, an immune reaction might be attributed to an artifact introduced into the patient, not the cells themselves.

JK: Correct. It may be an artifact introduced by the manufacturing process that Pluristem has to track down and correct.

We believe that other autologous companies face the same risks in their manufacturing processes. If we look at Baxter International Inc. (BAX:NYSE), with its autologous CD34+ mesenchymal stem cells from peripheral blood, or at NeoStem with its CD34+ bone marrow-derived autologous cells, these companies are enriching the cells using columns in the manufacturing process. The cells are separated, sorted and flow through the column. They interact with the column and the resulting fraction is enriched for a specific cell marker. The cell product, as such, has been manipulated. Each step is an opportunity for something to go wrong, such as the introduction of a contaminant. Starting with an autologous cell does not mean that the final product is safe.

I will grant that there are probably fewer manufacturing steps in an autologous setting, but the individualized handling, lack of automation and quality control are all limited by comparison to the advantages of a well-defined allogeneic process. If there is any manipulation whatsoever, the risk of anaphylaxis exists.

TLSR: I’d like to talk about administration of cells. Is each company developing its own methods and cannula systems to administer the cells, or will there be an all-purpose device to administer cells for intervertebral disc disease?

JK: I believe companies will develop their own devices. In fact, BioRestorative Therapies Inc. (BRTX:OTCBB) has developed a very interesting cannula that seems to work extremely well and is very unique. Companies are trying not to change the traditional methodology of the pain treatment paradigm for disc disease. So cells will be introduced in the same way that steroids are introduced. However, cells are not steroids, and it makes sense that a specialized cannula is needed.

One of the things that caught my eye is that BioRestorative Therapies is doing work with cells from brown fat. It’s an interesting argument, and a different cell source than Mesoblast’s. But the company has developed a lot of anecdotal data in humans that suggests its cells are like Mesoblast cells—robust and with potential therapeutic value in bulging and herniated disc disease.

TLSR: What is your impression of BioRestorative versus Mesoblast?

JK: BioRestorative is an interesting little company with mountains of anecdotal data that suggest its cells and delivery device may actually work. Having looked at Mesoblast’s data in DDD and in spinal fusion, it looks like it works too. The question is: If BioRestorative follows Mesoblast, where will that leave it if Mesoblast is the first mover? Only the management teams are in the position to answer.

“We believe we can effectively and safely treat patients using a nonsurgical, minimally invasive procedure that can be performed routinely in a physician’s office.” —Mark Weinreb of BioRestorative Therapies Inc.

Suffice to say that 5–10 years from now, I believe there will be competing cell therapies for disc disease. There will be an optimum cell type and delivery methodology for each disease or situation. But that thinking is too sophisticated for where the industry is today. It comes down to this: Right now the outlook for cell therapy is binary—either it works or it doesn’t work. I believe the evidence is clear—cell therapy can work, in the right indication, at the right “dose,” with the right cell type and in the right trial. Mesoblast has the resources in place to address these issues and will, I believe, end up with a positive outcome. Once the market accepts the reality—once we have an approved blockbuster cell therapy—the natural next question will be how we make the therapy better. My bet is that there will be multiple competing products, each with respective pros and cons.

TLSR: The anesthesiologists, the interventional neurologists and the neurosurgeons who treat spinal disease are already injecting drugs like steroids into intervertebral spaces. Are payers going to look at these cell therapies as just another drug going into a patient’s intervertebral space and ultimately want to pay on that basis?

JK: That’s exactly the right question. The payers are going to ask why should they pay for cell therapy at, let’s assume, the $10,000 per dose level if that will give the patient the same level of pain relief that could be achieved with a steroid at $100 per dose. That is going to be an issue. It’s going to be important for companies like Mesoblast and BioRestorative Therapies to generate data suggesting not only that cell therapy works, but also that it works in patients where steroids don’t—and that cell therapy does what steroids can’t, which is to arrest disease progression. Steroids treat the symptoms and not the underlying problem, and there is good reason to believe that cell therapy can not only alleviate pain, but also help arrest disease progression. The value of that is huge.

As far as the cost of spinal fusion. . .now we’re talking tens of thousands of dollars, and fusion often doesn’t even stop the pain. Sometimes a fusion of two vertebrae creates problems in adjacent vertebrae. Most clinicians and patients see fusion as a last resort. Clearly the treatment armamentarium needs a new resource. To the extent that a company like Mesoblast or BioRestorative can show data that changes the paradigm, payers will see value.

TLSR: Jason, you have addressed the issue that companies like Mesoblast and BioRestorative Therapies are trying not to change the way clinicians perform procedures. Clearly, administration of cells is not technique-sensitive relative to what clinicians are already doing. Uptake should be pretty rapid if these therapies are proven efficacious, shouldn’t it?

JK: You’ve hit the nail on the head. If you ask the neurosurgeon or the pain specialist to learn a new modality or technique for administration of an agent, you’re talking about a steeper learning curve, and a longer time to penetrate the marketplace. If clinicians don’t have to change their procedures in any way, shape or form, you’re talking rapid uptake.

CEO Mark Weinreb Describes BioRestorative Therapies Inc.’s Therapy for Bulging and Herniated Disc Disease

I think the latter will be the case with cell therapies in degenerative disc disease and even spinal fusion, which might also be accomplished with cells. In fact, in the case of spinal fusion, cell therapy may actually make the orthopedic surgeon’s life easier because a step is eliminated. The surgeon is not performing an autologous bone graft from the hip, which can be very painful for the patient. If you can keep the paradigm identical—or even eliminate a step—we think there is a huge win for the patient, the clinician and the product developers.

Eliminating a step is where we believe allogeneic therapy wins. First, it tends to have lower cost of goods versus autologous, and second, it is patient friendly. You don’t have to harvest cells or tissues from the patients—not from their bone marrow, not from their fat, not from their peripheral blood. An allogeneic therapy is off-the-shelf and ready to use. That’s true even when we look at CHF or STEMI (ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction)-based CHF treatment, where Athersys is working.

For instance, in the catheterization laboratory, when a stent is being placed, allogeneic therapy would be readily available without harvesting anything from the sick patient, and the patient would not have to return for a second procedure. You want to limit the number of interventions you make to a patient who has heart disease. As investors scrutinize companies, it’s very important to recognize which score best on the standard SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

TLSR: Have we seen response related to dose of cells?

JK: The answer is yes, but the reasons are not obvious. When we look at small molecules, we expect to see a linear response. You give dose one at 5 mg, dose two at 10 mg, dose three at 15 mg and dose four at 20 mg, and expect to see increasing efficacy and maybe increasing adverse events until a maximum tolerated dose and efficacy plateau is reached.

Cell therapy, on the other hand, doesn’t follow a linear curve. You have to put in enough cells to hit critical mass, but you could use too many cells, with the result being lower efficacy. Let me explain. Let’s say there are three doses of cells, 5 million (5M), 10M and 20M. It may be that 5M cells are not enough to exert the therapeutic benefit because we did not reach critical mass. But it could be that 20M cells are ineffective because too many cells end up competing for resources in a confined space and/or in a hostile environment. You could overload that space, with the result being that the cells don’t survive long enough to exert a therapeutic effect. You could ultimately determine that 10M cells are optimal. By the time researchers get to phase 3, they should have a really good handle on the right dose for a given indication.

TLSR: Jason, these cell therapy companies have not moved like biotech companies over the past year. Why are they not participating in what has been a broader biotech rally?

JK: There is inefficiency in the micro-cap space. Not only is there inefficiency, but there aren’t many analysts who follow cell therapy. Most analysts don’t really understand it.

When we look at the larger-cap companies that are heavily followed by institutions on both the buyside (institutional money management) and sellside (investment bank-driven research), there is much greater efficiency in the trading of shares. I’ll give you a great example. At Maxim we recently launched coverage of Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA:NASDAQ). When I was at the Teva research and development conference, I counted about 400 analysts in the room. Most of them were on the buyside. As for the sellside, I don’t believe we’ve ever seen an analyst who covers Teva write extensively about its partnership with Mesoblast. It’s very clear that there is a very large inefficiency in the marketplace.

The challenge for many stem cell companies is how good data will change the company. Mesoblast is moving into pivotal trials for spinal fusion and degenerative disc disease, and also into a large, 1,700-patient trial in CHF that is being paid for by Teva—to the tune of $130M. I think it’s very important that investors step back and ask themselves what is real and what’s not real.

TLSR: Teva owns 20% of Mesoblast, and that equity is now worth $300–350M to Teva. Even with Teva’s sponsorship, Mesoblast is down 18% over the past 52 weeks.

JK: Let me add a few things. Mesoblast is primarily domiciled in Australia, and its shares are very thinly traded in the U.S. Even with a $1.8B market cap and $330M in cash on its balance sheet, it is not well followed.

We’re not going to get real institutional ownership in cell therapy stocks until they have data and proof of concept. If you’re a fund manager with $10 billion ($10B) under management, you can’t afford to buy a micro-cap company or even a big-cap company that is thinly traded in the U.S. Companies like Mesoblast need to establish a more significant U.S presence that will lead to better share liquidity, which will then allow institutional ownership. Then I believe institutions will say, “OK, if I own Mesoblast, what else might work?” They will start scouring the landscape to find companies like Osiris Therapeutics Inc. (OSIR:NASDAQ), Athersys or Pluristem, which are allogeneic counterparts to Mesoblast. The fund managers can then ask, “Are these stocks cheaper alternatives?”

TLSR: By the way, how is your ankle?

JK: Thank you for asking. I’m not just an analyst; I’m also a patient of Dr. Steven Victor, founder and CEO of IntelliCell BioSciences Inc. (SVFC:OTCPK). As you remember, I rotated my ankle this past winter with extensive damage to the ligaments. I was evaluated at the emergency room and had an orthopedic specialist follow up. The original prognosis was 3–6 months of recovery with minimal physical stress, such as running. Dr. Victor treated my ankle and for me, an n=1, the results were amazing.

Truly, the treatment was as close to minimally manipulated cell therapy as one can get. A stromal vascular fraction was extracted from my belly fat. The harvest was 750M cells; 50M were injected locally into my ankle, with 700M administered systemically. Dr. Victor believes that the systemic administration of cells in conjunction with the local administration creates two modalities of repair. The local repair process accelerates and is supported by the systemic impact, which address generalized inflammation.

I will tell you, my ankle was close to 100% within 10 days of treatment. I had a fantastic season of skiing this past winter, and have been water skiing all summer long. Ankle strength is critical in water skiing.

Clearly, I personally believe cell therapy works. I believe it’s viable. I know that from my personal experience, and while I’m only one patient, the results were dramatic. I think cell therapy represents the future of medicine.

TLSR: The therapy that you had administered did not have to be approved by the FDA. There is anexemption for minimally manipulated biological tissues. No premarket approval (PMA) or even 510(k) clearance is necessary. Correct?

JK: That is exactly correct. In the case of IntelliCell BioSciences, cells are extracted from adipose tissue, but there is no collagenase (collagen enzyme) added to digest it. The company essentially appliessonification (ultrasound) and separates out the stem cells. Within an hour it reintroduces the cells to the patient. Because cells are so minimally manipulated and because the entire process is done onsite, in the room adjacent to the patient, it likely qualifies under the FDA exemption that allows physicians to treat patients at their discretion as a “practice of medicine” issue.

Plastic surgery centers around the world are discarding patients’ fat. But we would say that there is gold—your stem cells—in that fat. I know that Dr. Victor has treated more than 300 patients, and he’s had some amazing successes. These are not FDA-controlled trials. They’re not blinded. They’re not randomized. He is one of many clinicians finding ways to harvest stem cells and treat patients with them, with amazing results. But I want to be very clear: I’m not promoting the use of stem cells without clinical trials. Clinical trials are the only pathway for the industry to commercialize the value of this technology. That said, the evidence is building that our bodies possess the ability to heal with a little bit of coaxing from good science.

TLSR: I have one last question. What’s to stop an anesthesiologist or neurosurgeon or orthopedist who treats back pain from extracting a stromal vascular fraction and treating their patients? How is that going to affect Mesoblast and others who have gone the long route with the great expense of clinical trials?

JK: There is nothing to stop people from doing that. But the caveat is that once a product is approved and has a label, things change. Imagine that two patients are treated, one with the Mesoblast product and one with the do-it-yourselfer. Let’s say something goes wrong with the do-it-yourselfer, and that patient’s pain is not ameliorated. It gets worse, and a fusion is required. The patient calls a lawyer, and the lawyer sues the doctor. The lawyer asks the doctor why he used an “unapproved do-in-yourself” therapy versus the FDA-approved product. That’s not a position I would want to be in as a treating clinician.

Once there is an approved therapeutic project, the do-it-yourselfers tend to go away. Therefore, we don’t see these as a fundamental threat to companies like Mesoblast or Cytori Therapeutics Inc. (CYTX:NASDAQ) because once clinical trials are completed and the product is approved, clinicians will use it.

TLSR: As always, it’s a pleasure speaking with you.

JK: It’s a pleasure to talk with you. Thank you.

Jason Kolbert has worked extensively in the healthcare sector as product manager for a leading pharmaceutical company, a fund manager and as an equity analyst. Prior to joining Maxim Group, where he is managing director, Kolbert spent seven years at Susquehanna International Group, where he managed a healthcare fund and founded SIG’s biotechnology team. Previously, Kolbert served as the healthcare strategist for Salomon Smith Barney. He is often quoted in the media and is a sought-out expert in the biotechnology field Prior to beginning his Wall Street career, Kolbert served as a product manager for Schering-Plough in Osaka, Japan. He received a bachelor’s degree in chemistry from State University of New York, New Paltz, and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of New Haven.

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DISCLOSURE: 
1) George S. Mack conducted this interview for The Life Sciences Report and provides services to The Life Sciences Report as an independent contractor. He or his family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of The Life Sciences Report:Athersys Inc., NeoStem Inc., BioRestorative Therapies Inc. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for its services or as sponsorship payment. 
3) Jason Kolbert: I or my family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: NeoStem Inc. I personally am or my family is paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I was not paid by Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressed are my own comments and opinions. I had the opportunity to review the interview for accuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of the interview. 
4) The following companies are investment banking clients of Maxim Group: Athersys Inc., Cytori Therapeutics Inc. Maxim Group or its affiliates have received compensation from the following companies in the past 12 months: Mesoblast Ltd., Athersys Inc., Pluristem Therapeutics Inc., Cytori Therapeutics Inc.
5) Interviews are edited for clarity. Streetwise Reports does not make editorial comments or change experts’ statements without their consent. 
6) The interview does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer.
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The Launch Pad: 1,700 in sight for the S&P, Europe reacts positively to PMI data

24 hour chart

Today

market data newIs the European recession over?  Some are placing their bets that it is.  Quarterly GDP will not be released for another 3 weeks, but we are seeing predictions that the streak of economic contraction, which has lasted the past 6 quarters, will come to an end.  Business Insider’s Joe Weisenthal has put together a few of the arguments.

It is notable that the Euro Stoxx index has risen 22% since the December 2011, when the streak of negative GDP started, and was down 20% for the period of Sept 2009 through Dec 2011 when GDP was positive.  Leading indicator indeed…

Today, Euro shares are powering forward to the tune of 1.2% today following a flat session in the A-Pac region.  Gains are broad based across the zone and led by the banks with 3% days for SocGen and BNP Paribas.  Bond yields are pushing higher as well – particularly in Germany where the 10 year is higher by 6 basis points.  With the German 10 year still only yielding 1.61%, it remains as one of the few sovereigns that hasn’t had a significant correction this summer.

Manufacturing data was strong in Europe and soft in China, say what?  Yes, the HSBC preliminary PMI data for China came in at 47.7 which was below estimates and last month’s reading of 48.2.  A reading below 50 is contraction.  Meanwhile in Europe, PMI came in at 50.3 which was better than the 49.2 estimate and better than last month’s 48.6.  An interesting turn of events.  Germany, as usual led the way in Europe, but other nations had surprising survey results as well.  One of the main drivers is that vehicle demand is on the rise, especially the luxury variety. Bloomberg has more.

The wave of bank preferred share resets continues.  First BNS, then TD, and now BMO is joining the fray as the BMO series 16 preferred shares (BMO.PR.M) are being reset on August 26th to 165 basis points over the 5 year bond (if that was today, the new rate would be 3.40%) for the next 5 years.  This is a significant haircut from the 5.20% dividend it now carries.

Remember, holders have the choice to convert to a series which floats at 165 basis points over the 3 month treasury bill (for a current 2.65%), resetting every quarter.

No surprise here – we are currently using 200 basis points as the line below which banks will extend vs. call in the fixed resets.

Believe in the US housing recovery?  Recent data shows California foreclosures are down 55% year-over-year.  DataQuick provides the hard data city by city on the numbers (sourced, as usual, via Calculated Risk – McBride’s quote: ”It looks like this will be the lowest year for foreclosure starts since 2005, and also below the levels in 1997 through 1999 when prices were rising following the much smaller housing bubble / bust in California”)

We should probably expect more lawsuits like this one surrounding the LIBOR price fixing scandal is coming forth.  The city of Houston is suing a group of banks, citing specific instances where manipulation of LIBOR negatively affected municipal finances.  Bloomberg has more.

The tech sector looks especially strong today thanks to Apple, beating estimates.  Some analysts still can’t shake their doubts about the depth of the current rally, Market watch has even gone so far as to call it the zombie market.  

Remember the two big worries at the beginning of the year;  the fiscal cliff followed by the sequester.  Each of these represented the next big crisis for the markets and both seem to have faded into distant memories as U.S, markets continue to make record highs.  The Washington post took a look at the real effects of the sequester, and of course there is both good and bad news.

The latest MBA Mortgage Applications results are in and it looks like mortgage application have decreases slightly as mortgage rates have been creeping higher. Here are some excerpts from the Latest Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index decreased 1 percent from the previous week driven by a 12 percent drop in the Government Refinance index while the Conventional Refinance index rose by 2 percent. The Refinance Index is at the lowest level since July 2011. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier.

The refinance share of mortgage activity remained unchanged at 63 percent of total applications.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 4.58 percent from 4.68 percent, with points decreasing to 0.40 from 0.42 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

The long awaited saga of the Dell buyout should reach its conclusion today.  The story has been mostly between iconic businessmen Michael Dell and Carl Icahn.  There have been endless headlines detailing the public spat with each trying to influence the public opinion in their favour to gain a few extra percentage points in the vote. Just as political elections are determined by precisely who comes out to vote, so it may be with Michael Dell’s proposed $24.4 billion buyout of the computer maker he founded 29 years ago. The investor participation and the know parties against the move to have Dell go private don’t’ bode well for having the deal approved.

Diversion:

Never having seen a forest fire, this video is a rely eye opener as to how fast they can move.

The Speed of Fire

Company News

There is tons of company news this morning.  Let’s begin with the biggie.  Apple reported $7.47 in earnings for Q3 which was better than the $7.30 estimate.  This was down from the same quarter last year but given the lineup of older products, the expectations were pretty low.  Shares are up almost 5% in the pre-market.  Sticking with good news, lots of other tech names are higher this morning.  VMWare is up a whopping 13% after Q2 beat on both earnings and sales plus the company that helps manage server loads, raised their year end view.  EMC is up 4% on solid earnings.  Beyond technology, Eli Lilly posted Q2 of $1.16 above the $1.01 consensus and raised full year guidance range by about 15 cents.  Shares are up 3%.  Boeing reported $1.67 above the $1.58 estimate and reported a record backlog of $410 billion.    Ford reported Q2 of $0.45 which was better than the $0.37 estimates.  The company also raised its pretax profit guidance for 2013. 

There is some bad news, Broadcom is down 9% after reporting a miss on revenue.  Caterpillaris down 2% after reporting $1.45 which was below the $1.68 consensus.  The company also cut its earnings forecast for the year. 

Canadian Pacific reported roughly inline revenue at $1.5B but earnings of $1.43 was below the $1.50 estimate.  Floods appeared to be a problem.  Canadian Natural Resources is buying $223m worth of energy assets from Barrick Gold.   Cenovus Energy reported earnings of $0.34 which appears light with consensus sitting at $0.49.  Rogers reported $0.96 which is a penny below estimates, while subscriber growth was much stronger at 98k vs. 74k estimates.  Encanareported $0.34 compared to estimates of $0.17 and sees year end cash flow at the high end of previous guidance. 

Commodities

Commodities are down a bit this morning with oil off $0.50 and gold down $8.    We will see some US inventories later today at 10:30, expectations are for a 2.8m draw in crude.  Gold has put together a number of decent days yet we still see daily net selling of gold ETFs.

Fixed income and economics

Treasury yields continue their grind higher for a consecutive day, buoyed mostly on risk taking from stronger PMI readings out of Europe. Both German (+50.3) and French (+49.8) purchasing manager index readings improved in July to bring aggregate Eurozone PMI to +50.1 this month. The renewed prospects for an economic turnaround in the beleaguered region are helping markets shrug off a Chinese manufacturing update overnight that reported a drop in their index to 47.7 — a second straight month of contractionary signals. Risk aversion is being pushed to the wayside with stronger corporate earnings out of Apple and Ford as well, with 10 and 30 year Treasury benchmark returns up by nearly 8 basis points (to 2.57% and 3.64%) since the close last Friday. Note the lack of a steepening move in the latter part of the yield curve with the 10-30 spread actually narrowing by 4 basis points over this period. We noted last month that there appeared to be some exhaustion in the long bond with inconclusive Fed tapering talk acting as a ceiling on yield movement (an assertion on low inflation expectations also acted as a barrier). Markets instead moved up the curve and turned the 10 year benchmark into a tug of war with volatility in middle duration Treasuries nearly outpacing their 30 year counterparts. In fact, if you go back just two weeks we’ve seen a yield boundary of more than 25 bps in 10’s versus just 16 bps in the long bond. Expect this to continue until we get more clarity on timing from the Fed’s buyback program.

A quiet session north of the border thus far today with Canada bond benchmarks underperforming Treasury markets slightly. Yields on the US 10 year have not relinquished their lead from late June that saw their returns surge past our domestic benchmark, and despite trading patterns that have more or less remained in lockstep since, we continue to see a lower yield despite higher overnight rates. The lack of steepening in our curve has been notable these past few months as markets are clearly gearing expectations for a more bullish US economy. A $3.3B two year Canada bond auction will be taking place at noon today, but results are likely to be overshadowed by the US $35B 5 year sale at 1PM. We’ll be hoping for a result in our sale that is as strong as the US Treasury department’s from yesterday — the $35B in 2 year notes managed a 3.08 bid to cover with a high yield draw of just 0.336% (both stronger metrics from prior).

Chart of the day

chart o day

Quote of the day

“One of the painful things aboutour time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision”

– Bertrand Russell (1951)

 

© 2013 Macquarie Private Wealth Inc.

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Chart of the Day

For some perspective on the post-financial crisis rally, today’s chart illustrates how much of the downturn that occurred as a result of the financial crisis has been retraced by each of the five major US stock market indexes. For example, the S&P 500 peaked at 1,565.15 back in October 9, 2007 and troughed at 676.53 back on March 9, 2009. The most recent close for the S&P 500 is 1,692.39 — it has retraced 114.3% of its financial crisis bear market decline. As today’s chart illustrates, each of these five major stock market indices has recouped all losses incurred during the financial crisis (i.e. all are above 100% on today’s chart). However, it has been the often overlooked S&P 400 (mid-cap stocks) that has been the star performer. The S&P 400 has recouped over 160% of its financial crisis decline — a very impressive performance.

Notes:
Where should you invest? The answer may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive & Barron’s recommended charts of Chart of the Day Plus.

20130724

Quote of the Day
“What is past is prologue.” – Shakespeare

Events of the Day
August 05, 2013 – PGA Championship begins (ends August 11th)

Stocks of the Day
— Find out which stocks investors are focused on with the most active stocks today.
— Which stocks are making big money? Find out with the biggest stock gainers today.
— What are the largest companies? Find out with the largest companies by market cap.
— Which stocks are the biggest dividend payers? Find out with the highest dividend paying stocks.
— You can also quickly review the performance, dividend yield and market capitalization for each of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Companies as well as for each of the S&P 500 Companies.

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YOUR TICKET TO SUBSTANTIAL PROFITS AHEAD

The majority of gold and silver miners are on the ropes, big time. Downgrades by credit-rating agencies are imminent. So they’re scrambling to cut costs, dump assets, and beef up their balance sheets.

That’s what happens when the price of your underlying product plunges, like gold and silver have over the past two years. A call I made way back in September 2011.

And now, the average mining share has lost about 63 percent of its market value. The average junior miner even more, a whopping 78 percent.

According to BMO Capital Markets, 55 gold and silver companies the firm analyzed increased their net debt, or debt minus cash, from less than $2 billion 10 years ago to a record $21 billion today.

Most of that debt was borrowed at extremely low interest rates. Now that rates are rising, many mining companies will get absolutely killed by the additional debt payments.

Screen Shot 2013-07-24 at 10.53.18 AMConsider gold mining giant Barrick Gold (ABX). In 2008, Barrick had $4.5 billion in outstanding debt. It now has $14.8 billion of debt, after borrowing heavily to pay for its $7.65 billion takeover of Equinox Minerals Ltd. in 2011.

That deal was Barrick’s way of diversifying into copper. That wasn’t a smart move since the company borrowed billions and bought a copper company at the top of the copper market.

So in addition to the higher interest rates that Barrick will have to pay on its debt now, it’s also losing money hand over fist on its copper.

As a result, Barrick is postponing its flagship Pascua-Lama mine, whose cost estimate has gone up to $8.5 billion from around $5 billion. It’s also writing off as much as $5.5 billion of debt it thinks will go bad.

There’s more: Due to the rising costs of mining, it costs Barrick roughly $1,800 to get an ounce of gold out of the ground. So with gold at $1,300, Barrick is losing about $500 on every ounce of gold it mines, in addition to its copper losses.

Put another way, gold would have to rally well past $1,800 an ounce for Barrick to make even a few percentage points of profit on its gold. Copper would have to get back to well above $4, up about $1 from its current price. And interest rates would have to come down and stay down for Barrick to survive its debt burden.

A pretty picture? Hardly. But Barrick isn’t alone. It’s the same story for dozens of mining companies out there, small and large.

But quite frankly, it’s also music to my ears.

Why? Because I love buying mining shares when they are beaten up, not when they’re rocketing higher and at the top of a major run.

That’s what my subscribers did way back in the 2000 when I told them to buy gold and mining shares.

If you had heeded my major “buy” and “sell” signals on the yellow metal since then — and you acted on my signals to buy and sell some of the top gold mining shares — you could have grabbed substantial long-term profits. Profits like:

• A 150.6 percent gain in AuRico Gold …

• A 288.8 percent gain in Harmony Gold …

• A 301.5 percent gain in AngloGold Ashanti …

• A 415.4 percent gain in Newmont Mining …

• A 541.1 percent gain in International Minerals Corp. …

• A 554.8 percent gain in Gold Fields Ltd, and …

• A 750.1 percent gain in IAMGOLD Corp. — enough to turn every $1,000 invested into more than $85,000.

And believe it or not, these are not even close to the biggest gainers you could have jumped on:

• Agnico Eagle Mines jumped 850.2 percent …

• Kinross Gold Corp. jumped 877.8 percent …

• Newcrest Mining jumped 1,059.4 percent …

• Goldcorp jumped 1,248 percent, and …

• Royal Gold, one of my favorites, jumped an amazing 2,957.9 percent.

That gain in Royal Gold alone would have been enough to turn every $10,000 you invested into $305,790 … and a $40,000 investment into more than $1.2 million.

Unfortunately, it’s impossible to travel back in time and grab these entire moves. Nobody can. But that’s ok because — as I’ve been warning you recently — gold and silver are bottoming and so are mining shares.

To grab your share of this huge new profit potential,

take these critical steps IMMEDIATELY.

FIRST, make sure you have plenty of cash on hand. If you’ve been following my signals for the last two years — to stay out of or refrain from buying more precious metals and mining shares and to build your hoard of cash instead — please make sure that cash is ready to be deployed on a moment’s notice.

If for some reason you didn’t follow my signals and did not build up your cash hoard, be sure to do so immediately. The best way: Dump any bond investments you own.

As interest rates continue to rise, believe me, those are going down the tubes. Even municipal bonds are a disaster. Just consider Detroit’s bankruptcy last week and how much money bondholders stand to lose there.

SECOND, make sure you have a brokerage account set up and ready to trade mining shares and mining ETFs and leveraged ETFs.

It’s all up to you and what you can afford. But my recommendation is to commit at least $25,000 to trading the next bull market in the precious metals.

THIRD, never forget the biggest profits come from buying assets that the majority are bearish on … from buying companies and investments when they have been beaten down.

But you also can’t just run out and willy-nilly buy any beaten down mining company. For instance, though I liked Barrick before, it’s now off my buy list. In fact, it’s on my list of 10 mining shares to dump right now.

Best wishes,

Larry

 

The Strongest Bull Market In 65 Years

This unkillable stock market rally seems to get no respect. U.S. stocks have been snubbed by investors this year.

strongest-bull