Timing & trends

One Of The Most Important Charts You Will Ever See

KWN Griffiths 10-30-2013

On the heels continued volatility in global markets, today one of the top strategists in the world sent King World News one of the most important charts investors will ever see.  Cazenove Capital is the appointed stockbroker to Her Majesty The Queen, and their acclaimed strategist, Robin Griffiths, also warned that the Chinese and others are now saying, “We don’t need anymore of your damn dollars.”  HERE is what Griffiths had to say in this timely and powerful interview. 

“It’s a Tremendous Opportunity”

I was there pounding the table when silver was at the lowest inflation adjusted price it had been at in recorded history. And nobody was paying attention. I shouldn’t say no one – Warren Buffet was paying attention – he had bought in that range, and Bill Gates, he bought a great stake in in Pan American Silver, and like him or not, George Soros started Apex Silver Mines – so you know the billionaires were buying, not the millionaires, the billionaires. But the general public was a big ho-hum – Silver had been under $5 in a 20 year bear market, why would I buy something that is at the lowest price it has ever been – which proves my point – people don’t buy bottoms. So it takes a unique, maverick type of thinking, outside the box type of thinking, even in the space we are in of contrarians – it takes a contrarian within the contrarians to do it.

I think it’s a tremendous opportunity, especially on the mining shares side – we’re at a level that is a once in a lifetime opportunity. Opportunity, but we need new people in the sector. How does that happen? I don’t know. But with the internet, the right interview, the right whatever- maybe when Yellen comes in office, I don’t know – there could be, could be, not would be, could be a triggering point that something happens in the administration, something happens on the war front, something happens at a major bank, something happens in the stock market or bond market, I mean all of these things are interconnected and tied together. And there could be a trigger event that has nothing really to do with the silver market- that frightens people or elates them, maybe it’s a new technology using silver in a battery – I don’t know – but all of a sudden the consciousness shifts quickly- and there’s a big move into it and once that momentum starts, once that spark is lit, especially in silver, NOTHING can move like the silver market, it will ignite and take off.

Now am I forecasting that to happen? No I’m not. I think we’re in a re-building process […] that ignition I just described, that WILL happen, probably at the end of the market. But there’s no reason to rule it out completely. Because if there is one thing that we know about capital markets and investing is, it’s human activity. And human activity CANNOT be predicted.”

….to read the entire interview with David Morgan go to Are we Seeing a Squeeze Now on Silver Supply? Vanessa Collette interviews the Silver Guru David Morgan at the 11th Annual Silver Summit

….to watch the interview go to:

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STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK

Stocks pushed higher on Tuesday as investors positioned portfolios ahead of the FOMC announcement on Wednesday.   Investors overwhelmingly expect no change to present stimulus measures as a result of recent lacklustre employment reports that were less than expected.   Despite the risk-on trading environment that would be implied by maintaining stimulus measures, consumer staples, a defensive sector, continues to dominate market performance.   Sectors that have lagged the market activity as of recent, such as the consumer staples and energy, outperformed the market on Tuesday in what may be construed as month-end positioning; cyclical sectors that have led the markets higher over recent weeks, such as industrials and materials, underperformed broad market benchmarks during the session.   The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index, the classic risk-on play, is also starting to show signs of lagging broad market performance.   Stocks remain significantly overbought and some sort of consolidation appears to be in order to rejuvenate upside momentum.

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The gains on the session pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a new closing high as the blue chip index attempts to join the other benchmarks in previously uncharted territory.   The Dow is presently testing the upper limit of an over 6 month trading range.   The Dow has significantly underperformed the S&P 500 since mid-April due to lagging performance in Exxon Mobil, IBM, and Caterpillar, each of which typically trend positive into the end of the year.

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….read more from EquityClock HERE & the full daily report including Interesting Charts from Don Vialoux’s Timing the Market HERE

 

 

Financial Markets: Negating the Laws of Gravity

StockMarketUsually what goes up normally ends up coming back down to Earth with a damn great thud. Well, that was long ago with good old Isaac Newton and the apple story. Apple might well be part of the story these days as an example of things that are going up but that have ascended so high for the moment that they have almost vanished from sight. But, there is simply no reason to defy the laws of Newton on Gravity. Negating the laws of gravity in such a way as to turn Newton on his own head is exactly what the stock market is doing right now. Antigravity might not exist in the real world but there is a theory that is refuted by the Gravity Establishment as to the means of blocking gravity effects on bodies. Have the stock markets and the financial wizards just put that into practice and is there some way of explaining why the stock market has increased yet again with no apparent reason?

….read more HERE

Silver’s Next Move

silver barsSilver’s role in a deflationary crash

Silver may be the good news metal, but it’s about to have a serious retest of its “bad news” capacity.

The 1970s

It’s been a long while since we’ve witnessed visible inflation.                     

The last time occurred after Bretton Woods was rescinded in 1971 and the U.S. dollar was allowed to float.  Essentially, this was yet another in a series of defaults. Inflation rates soared.

Stealth Inflation

One of the most effective perceptual tricks played on the mainstream has been the modification of consumer price inflation.

Obviously, the new adjustments have helped to overestimate GDP and reduce the amount the social security price increases. In addition, they have completely masked the perception of real inflation and the reduction of purchasing power.

Inflation is real for those who eat and purchase fuel for their automobiles.

According to the Intuit Spending Index, over the past two years expenses such as daycare, tuition, health care, and utilities are up by solid double digits — while CPI remains below 2%.

Stealth inflation involves the growing implementation of product redesign. It also involves mainly resizing or re-weighting across the board — from sugar to diapers.

The Next Visible Downturn

Any meaningful, sudden drop in equities would put immediate pressure on the Fed to further support the financial systems and, mainly, the banking sector.

Despite warnings from the Treasury Board Advisory Committee (TBAC) with regard to limited collateral available for the REPO market, political pressure could very likely result in a fully captured Federal Reserve.

Leftover Federal Reserve independence (if any) would be gone instantly, and this could be the final nail in the coffin for confidence. A treasury default or collateral-induced credit freeze would likely create a much larger crisis, one that could quickly spiral out of control in terms of interest rates.

Sovereign creditors will not likely sell dollar denominated assets by choice. Rather, they would respond in the same manner as their Western counterparts – via an act of aggression or reaction to a crisis.

The Fed would need to step up, stoking money velocity and sending commodity prices soaring.

There is an irony to the results of this series of events. While solid industrial demand competes with silver investment demand, the drop in nominal economic activity would light the fire under investment demand — effectively ending price manipulation.  

About the Author

Jeffrey Lewis

Jeffrey Lewis has been an advocate for silver purchasing for the past six years. He writes regularly about it at silver-coin-investor.com