Timing & trends

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said the economy continued to expand at the same “modest to moderate pace” it has seen over most of the past year, though the details of the latest so-called Beige Book report show plenty of positive news with scarcely any negative developments.

According to the report, manufacturing continued to expand and plant managers were optimistic about the near term.

See external link to the Beige Book report.

Read summary at Marketwatch

Will Japan Succeed?

Posted by Jack Crooks - Black Swan Capital

on Wednesday, 4 December 2013 19:23

black swan“Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.”

Winston Churchill

Summary

  • Japan’s success is far from certain; it is a catch-22
  • If success is predicated on a rising current account surplus, it could spark turmoil elsewhere
  • Global turmoil likely means another safe-haven flow back to the yen

As you know, I am big fan of Professor Michael Pettis; he of Beijing University fame.  He is an expert on global macro and often shares many out-of-the-box insights.  Mr. Pettis seems very concerned about Prime Minister Abe’s chances for success.  The odds of failure appear high.  Let’s take a look at a few key points. 

 

 

Analyzing Last 3 Times Gold Fell By More Than 20%

Posted by Hard Assets Investor

on Wednesday, 4 December 2013 17:52

History may provide insight on where gold goes from here.

Gold and silver hit fresh five-month lows this week as Fed taper concerns continued to weigh on the markets. The central bank could act as soon as this month when it makes its next monetary policy decision on Dec. 18. Gold bulls must defend the $1,180 cycle low from July to prevent a sharper decline to $1,000 in 2014.

goldtechnicalchart12032013

SILVER (YTD)

silvertechnicalchart12032013

That said, as 2013 draws to a close, it’s a good idea to put this year’s gold decline in perspective. As of today, the yellow metal is down 27.1 percent since the start of the year.

That’s among the worst annual performances on record, but not the worst. Since the end of the gold standard and fixed gold prices in 1971, the yellow metal has put in an annual loss of more than 20 percent on three separate occasions, excluding this year.

The first was in 1975, shortly after the dismantling of the Bretton Woods system, which was the last vestige of the gold standard. That year, prices fell by nearly 24 percent. But that decline came after a surge of 73 percent in the previous year. 

Gold (1975–1980)

gold1975to198112032013

….read page 2 HERE

 

 

 

OTTAWA–After 21 consecutive monthly trade deficits, Canada recorded a small surplus in October as imports declined at a steeper pace than exports, Statistics Canada said Wednesday.

Canada posted a trade surplus in October of 75 million Canadian dollars ($70.4 million), whereas market expectations called for a deficit of C$770 million, according to economists at Royal Bank of Canada. The last time Canada recorded a trade surplus was in December, 2011.

Write to Paul Vieira at paul.vieira@wsj.com

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent.

The warning that I see in the statement today was,

“Meanwhile, inflation has moved further below the Bank’s 2 per cent target. Core inflation is being held down by significant excess supply and by the effects of heightened competition in the retail sector, which look to be more persistent than anticipated. In addition, total CPI inflation has been pushed down by lower gasoline prices.”

The Bank of Canada runs on a single mandate of inflation, therefore that will be a key number to watch.

After the realease the Canadain Dollar futures are ate 93.55 down 0.30 on the day.

 

Drew Zimmerman

Investment & Commodities/Futures Advisor

604-664-2842 – Direct

604 664 2900 – Main

604 664 2666 – Fax

800 810 7022 – Toll Free

dzimmerman@pifinancial.com