“Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.”
Winston Churchill
Summary
- Japan’s success is far from certain; it is a catch-22
- If success is predicated on a rising current account surplus, it could spark turmoil elsewhere
- Global turmoil likely means another safe-haven flow back to the yen
As you know, I am big fan of Professor Michael Pettis; he of Beijing University fame. He is an expert on global macro and often shares many out-of-the-box insights. Mr. Pettis seems very concerned about Prime Minister Abe’s chances for success. The odds of failure appear high. Let’s take a look at a few key points.
