Economic Outlook

25% Of US Restaurants Will Never Reopen: Opentable

A quarter of US restaurants will go out of business due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a forecast by OpenTable, which reported that total restaurant reservations and walk-in customers have fallen 95% over the previous year ending May 13.

At the state-level, Florida showed the greatest statewide gain, with foot traffic only down 83% y/y after launching a phased reopening May 4 during which restaurants were allowed to operate at one-quarter capacity.

Indiana, which is now in phase two – allowing restaurants to operate at 50% of capacity – has come in second. The state is planning on a full reopening by the Fourth of July.

“Restaurants are complicated beasts,” said Steve Hafner, CEO of OpenTable parent company, Booking Holdings. “You have to order food and supplies. You have to make sure you’ve prepped the kitchen and service areas to be easily disinfected.”

According to Hafner, state unemployment benefits with the federal booster is one reason why restaurants have struggled to hire help. “A lot of people are making $1,200 a week doing nothing. That’s good pay.”

Meanwhile, restaurateur Danny Meyer – who shut down all of his 19 New York restaurants on March 13, says his dining rooms will stay closed for the foreseeable future, according to BloombergCLICK for complete article

“Insured unemployment rate” in California spiked to 27.7%, “continued claims” hit 4.8 million. In terms of “initial claims,” Georgia & Florida move into 1st and 2nd, ahead of California.

State unemployment offices have processed 2.98 million “initial claims” for unemployment  insurance in the week ended May 9, according to the US Department of Labor this morning. This brings the total number of initial claims processed over the past 8 reporting weeks since mid-March to a gut-wrenching 36.84 million (seasonally adjusted). Today’s claims were over four times the magnitude of the prior spikes in the unemployment crises in 1982 and 2009.

While the weekly explosion of initial claims has slowed from prior weeks, the number of people still filing for unemployment insurance in the week ended May 9 was still at a catastrophic level: CLICK for complete article

Start Paying Attention to Junior Miners – Before It’s Too Late

Palisade Radio welcomes back past guest Jim Paterson who is Chairman and CEO of ValOre Metals Corp. He says, “It’s time for people to get serious about the gold space and focus on projects that are advancing as those companies will get rewarded.” Click below to listen. ~ Ed

Pandemic Buying Opportunities in Metals & Mining

Brien Lundin, editor of The Gold Newsletter is hosting a live Q&A on Thursday May 7th @ 11:00am Pacific time with some of our good friends from The Discovery Group. You are welcome to join in and hear from Discovery Group founder John Robins, Jim Paterson CEO of ValOre Metals, Chris Taylor CEO of Great Bear Resources & David Terry CEO of Genesis Metals. ~Ed

CLICK HERE to register

China Warns Of Possible Armed Conflict With US Over Coronavirus Backlash

An internal report presented to Chinese President Xi Jinping and other top leaders concludes that global anti-China sentiment is at a level not seen since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, and recommends preparing for a worst-case scenario of armed conflict with the United States, according to Reuters, citing people familiar with the content of the document.

The report, created by the China Institutes of Contemporary Internal Relations (CICIR) – which is affiliated with the Ministry of State Security – suggests that the wave of anti-China sentiment is led by the United States, which sees China’s rise as a global superpower as a threat to Western democracies. CLICK for complete article

C.D. Howe’s Business Cycle Council says country has entered a recession

Canada has officially entered a recession due to the economic devastation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declared Friday.

The council, which acts as an arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada, said the economy peaked in February before the steps taken to slow the spread of the coronavirus brought the economy to a standstill.

“Members agreed that by applying the council’s methodology to the preliminary data available, Canada entered a recession in the first quarter of 2020,” the council said in statement.

There are no hard and fast rules for determining a recession, though a commonly used definition is two consecutive quarters of negative quarter-over-quarter economic growth.

However, the C.D. Howe council defines a recession as a pronounced, persistent, and pervasive decline…Click for full article.