Economic Outlook

Canada’s employment engine shifts into lower gear

Canada’s labor market continued to heal in October as retail businesses ramped up hiring, though the pace of gains has begun to cool.

The economy added 31,200 jobs last month, Statistics Canada said Friday in Ottawa, missing expectations for a gain of 41,600 in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The unemployment rate fell to 6.7 per cent from 6.9 per cent in September, and total hours worked rose 1 per cent.

The report signals the economic rebound is intact, with companies finding workers as COVID-19 restrictions vanish. Yet, the data also illustrate how future job gains will return to more normal levels — which averaged 23,000 per month in the two years prior to the pandemic — as labor slack diminishes.

“Underlying indicators of limited labor market slack are starting to flash,” Simon Harvey, senior FX market analyst at Monex Europe Ltd., said by email.

Canada’s currency was little changed after the report, trading at about $1.2445 per U.S. dollar at 9:32 in Toronto trading. Bond reaction was also muted, with the yield on Canada’s two-year benchmark falling one basis point to 0.97 per cent…read more.

Green Jobs Are a Cost, not a Benefit

The International Energy Agency recently reported that shifting to clean energy will create between 13 and 26 million jobs by 2030. They present this as a benefit, but that’s misleading; jobs are not a benefit but a cost.

That might sound counterintuitive, but it’s easy to understand. Say you need to do repairs on your home, and you can’t or don’t want to do them yourself. That means you have to pay for both materials and labor. But imagine that the materials would magically assemble themselves into the needed repair work all on their own. Then you would only have to pay for materials, and you would save the cost of hiring someone.

This is true for any business as well. Suppose the elements of their business could magically assemble themselves into the finished product or service. The business owner could then avoid spending on employees and pass some of that savings on to customers. That’s why automation has replaced so many laborious tasks over time, from agriculture to washing clothes to taking orders at fast-food restaurants.

Can you save the cost of labor by doing your own repair work on your home? No, because your time has value. The time and energy spent doing the home repair can’t be spent on something else, whether that something else is a money-making activity or just leisure. That’s the opportunity cost of your labor, the lost opportunity to do the next most valuable thing with your time, whether for you that’s doing something that makes money or just enjoying some leisure time. Even if you find working on your home pleasurable, there’s still an opportunity cost. If that cost is high, then it’s worth hiring someone else. If it’s low, it may make sense to do the work yourself. But either way, there’s a cost.

But aren’t jobs a benefit to the person who has the job? No. They are no more a benefit than your labor on your own home is a benefit. The income is the benefit, and the job is the cost you pay to get the income. That’s easy to see if you imagine getting the same income without having to work for it. Consider why nobody talks about what job they’ll have in heaven. Our standard picture of heaven is that we have all our needs taken care of without doing any work. All our time is leisure time. That vision implicitly recognizes that having a job is a cost. It may be a necessary cost here on earth, but it is nonetheless a cost.

Which brings us back to green jobs. The International Energy Agency suggests that creating millions of jobs in clean energy is a benefit, but now you should see that these jobs are really a cost. You can see this more clearly by thinking about who pays that cost. After all, someone has to pay for all that labor. And that someone is the public. Imagine how much cheaper the transition to clean energy would be if it required fewer jobs, so the public didn’t have to pay for as much labor. Then the clean energy policies would have even more net value.

And if such a loss of jobs in the energy sector were to occur, it would not mean a net loss of jobs. Instead, those workers would become available for employers in other sectors of the economy to hire. Then for the same amount of labor, we would get both green power and whatever other goods and services those workers would end up providing for us. So if government wanted to craft a truly economically beneficial clean energy policy, it would devise one that requires fewer workers in the energy industry.

Government is not needed to create jobs. The private sector does that on its own and does it best when government stays out of the way. Consider that the U.S. population has tripled in the past century while at the same time automation has eliminated countless jobs. Yet, in the years just before the Covid-19 pandemic, the unemployment rate was historically low. Or consider automated checkout in grocery stores that has reduced the number of cashiers. Naively one would expect a reduction in grocery store employment. Instead, those workers have shifted to tasks like shopping for customers who then come to the store just long enough to pick up their order. Freeing up labor from one job makes them available for new tasks that nobody could do for us in the past.

Government policies that “create” jobs – green or any other color – are not adding to the total number of jobs. They are only shifting them away from other economic sectors. And they can only do so by offering higher wages, which are paid for by us members of the public. So once again, those jobs are a cost of the policy, not a benefit.

This isn’t an argument against clean energy. This is an argument that jobs are not a reason to favor clean energy. If we have decided to transition to clean energy for environmental reasons, then we should hope for clean energy that requires fewer jobs. That would be a real benefit…read more.

Federal deficit hits $57B nearing halfway of fiscal year

The federal government ran a deficit of more than $57 billion over the first five months of its fiscal year, about $114 billion less than the treasury pumped out during the same stretch one year earlier.

The Finance Department’s regular fiscal monitor says the budgetary deficit between April and August was $57.2 billion, down from the $170.5 billion recorded over the same months in 2020 when COVID-19 first struck.

Friday’s report says the deficit now reflects current economic challenges caused by COVID-19, including ongoing public health restrictions.

Program spending, excluding net actuarial losses, between April and August was $190 billion, a decline of about $64.1 billion, or 25.2 per cent drop, from the $254.1 billion in the same period one year earlier.

The fiscal monitor says the decline largely reflects lower amounts paid in emergency benefits to individuals and businesses…read more.

U.S. economic growth rate slows to 2% on a sharp slowdown in consumer spending

U.S. economic growth slowed more than expected in the third quarter to the softest pace of the pandemic recovery period as snarled supply chains and a surge in COVID-19 cases throttled spending and investment.

Gross domestic product, a sum of all the goods and services produced, grew at a 2.0% annualized pace in the third quarter, according to the department’s first estimate released Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 2.8% reading.

That marked the slowest GDP gain since the 31.2% plunge in the second quarter of 2020, which encompassed the period during which Covid-19 morphed into a global pandemic that resulted in a severe economic shutdown that sent tens of millions to the unemployment lines and put a chokehold on activity across the country…read more.

BMO: The Bank Of Canada Has No Justification To Continue Extreme Stimulus

It’s time to take off the training wheels for Canada’s economy, which is now looking overstimulated. That’s the take from BMO‘s Douglas Porter, who sees stimulus coming to an end as early as this week. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is increasingly looking out of touch with reality. BMO, amongst others, now sees no justification for the level of stimulus the central bank is using.

The Bank Of Canada Is Out Of Step With Housing And The Economy

The Canadian economy hasn’t recovered to its pre-pandemic glory, but it’s not far off either. While it needs help to grow, it doesn’t need this much help from the central bank. Canada’s outlook doesn’t look nearly as bad as it did at the beginning of the pandemic. However, little has changed in terms of the stimulus it’s receiving.

Programs like quantitative easing (QE) are still used to suppress borrowing rates. The overnight rate is already next to zero (0.25%), but the central bank is driving borrowing costs even lower. By driving down rates, they’re hoping to stimulate even more demand for goods. If demand for goods runs too high, the stimulus becomes inflationary. No one wins when inflation is elevated, since it consumes extra income, but not more goods.

It’s tough to argue for more stimulus with record home and stock prices, and high inflation. Promoting more stimulus would be arguing for higher inflation at this point.

“… [the BoC’s] current ultra-stimulative policies look far out of step with red-hot housing, record equity markets, decades-high inflation, and employment back at pre-pandemic levels,” said Porter.