Economic Outlook

Is Colorado the Next Zero-Income Tax State?

The effort to chisel away at the state income tax has gained steam in the Centennial State. Can voters and Governor Polis pull it off?

When an interviewer recently asked Colorado’s Democratic governor Jared Polis what the state’s income-tax rate should be, he answered without hesitation: “It should be zero.”

For many Coloradans, this came as no surprise: The effort to chisel away at the income tax has already gained steam in the state. Last year, voters reduced the tax with Proposition 116 — a ballot initiative that brought the rate from 4.63 percent to 4.55 percent. The Denver-based Independence Institute, where I work, led last year’s rate-reduction campaign, through its issue committee, and plans to advocate another tax cut next year. Yet, for reasons discussed in further detail below, those eying complete elimination of the income tax may have to take another approach.

The Value of Zero Income Tax

If Colorado were to adopt the governor’s recommendation, it would join eight other states with no income tax and become the third blue state boasting the status, alongside Washington and Nevada.

Eliminating the tax would provide an enormous direct windfall to Colorado households. In 2017, the average Colorado family paid $2,850 to the state in income tax. But the indirect benefits of economic growth and opportunity for residents should not be understated…read more.

Employment numbers show bureaucrats benefit while private sector struggles

Statistics Canada’s employment numbers released today show Canadians working outside government have struggled while the bureaucracy continues to grow.

“There’s been a tale of two pandemics in Canada: one full of private sector pain, the other full of politicians and bureaucrat financial gain,” said Franco Terrazzano, Federal Director with the CTF. “It’s not fair to make struggling taxpayers pay for more bureaucrats and bigger bureaucrat salaries during the pandemic.”

Statistics Canada’s job report shows the burden of the pandemic downturn has been felt disproportionately by workers outside of government.

There’s been 257,400 government jobs added during the pandemic, including an extra 107,700 “public administration” employees added since February 2020.

There are 256,500 fewer jobs outside of government (private sector plus self-employed) than pre-pandemic…read more.

CFIB urges feds to tighten recovery benefit, extend other aid

With some key federal COVID-19 support programs set to expire in less than two weeks, the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) is urging the federal government to extend and adjust its aid.

The CFIB represents almost 100,000 small and medium-sized businesses across Canada, many of whom, it said, continue to rely on federal support programs.

“Businesses need certainty as so many are still dodging constant curveballs with a slow pick-up in revenues, labour shortages, and wariness around ongoing restrictions in the months ahead,” said Corrine Pohlmann, senior vice-president of national affairs at CFIB, in a release Tuesday.

“No business owner expects government support forever, but they need to know they have something to rely on until all restrictions are lifted, and they can fully operate their business once again. They can’t afford for the government to dawdle until the last minute.”…read more.

Canada returns to pre-pandemic employment levels

Canada has recovered all of the roughly three million jobs lost to COVID-19.

The country’s economy added 157,100 jobs in September, returning the labor market to pre-pandemic levels, Statistics Canada said Friday in Ottawa. That compares with economists’ expectation of 60,000 new jobs, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

The unemployment rate fell to 6.9 per cent from 7.1 per cent in August. Hours worked were up 1.1 per cent in the month but remain 1.5 per cent below their pre-pandemic level.

The Canadian dollar spiked, rising to $1.2494 per U.S. dollar as of 9:25 a.m. in Toronto. That’s the highest level since Aug. 5.

Bonds sold off, with the two-year benchmark yield at 0.651 per cent, the highest level since March 2020.

The robust numbers are a welcome sign for the nation’s economy. They suggest that companies are willing and able to hire workers as virus restrictions ease and as high vaccination rates boost optimism among consumers and businesses…read more.

Recession ‘virtually guaranteed’ amid energy squeeze: David Rosenberg

David Rosenberg said its growing increasingly likely Canada will fall into a period of recession in the near-term as the headwinds against the economy continue to stack up.

“Compounding all the other issues on the supply side globally is this energy squeeze we’re seeing,” said Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Rosenberg Research, in an interview.

“This is a huge margin squeeze for most producers, and it’s a huge hit to the purchasing power for the 70 per cent of the economy, otherwise known as the consumer.”

Those other issues he’s referring to include global supply chain disruptions, concerns about inflation running too hot, and labour shortages, not to mention the still present threat of COVID-19 outbreaks and business restrictions.

His comments come amid a volatile week for energy prices, amid more robust than expected oil inventories in the U.S., and as Russia offered to help ease Europe’s natural gas crisis…read more.