Daily Updates

Dirt Cheap

One ounce of gold now buys a huge 62 ounces of silver. Silver is dirt cheap compared with gold. Dec. silver closed up .0225 to 17.40

RR1105

A brief excerpt of the lengthy daily internet comment by Richard Russell of Dow theory Letters a man who has made his subriber’s fortunes (at least those that follow his advice). One of the best values anywhere in the financial world at only a $300 subscription to get his report daily for a year. HERE to subscribe.


 

 

AH PERFECTION: Strange, but the most popular, the most widely-requested, and the most widely quoted piece I’ve ever written was not about the stock market — it was about business, and specifically about what I called the theoretical “ideal business.” I first published this piece in the early-1970s. I repeated it in Letter 881 and then again in Letter 982. I’ve added a few thoughts in each successive edition.

I once asked a friend, a prominent New York corporate attorney, “Dave, in all your years of experience, what was the single best business you’ve ever come across?” Without hesitation, Dave answered, “I have a client whose sole business is manufacturing a chemical that is critical in making synthetic rubber. This chemical is used in very small quantities in synthetic rubber manufacturing, but it is absolutely essential and can be used in only super-refined form.

“My client is the only one who manufactures this chemical. He therefore owns a virtual monopoly since this chemical is extremely difficult to manufacture and not enough of it is used to warrant another company competing with him. Furthermore, since the rubber companies need only small quantities of this chemical, they don’t particularly care what they pay for it — as long as it meets their very demanding specifications. My client is a millionaire many times over, and his business is the best I’ve ever come across.” I was fascinated by the lawyer’s story, and I never forgot it.

When I was a young man and just out of college my father gave me a few words of advice. Dad had loads of experience; he had been in the paper manufacturing business; he had been assistant to Mr. Sam Bloomingdale (of Bloomingdale’s Department store); he had been in construction (he was a civil engineer); and he was also an expert in real estate management.

Here’s what my dad told me: “Richard, stay out of the retail business. The hours are too long, and you’re dealing with every darn variable under the sun. Stay out of real estate; when hard times arrive real estate comes to a dead stop and then it collapses. Furthermore, real estate is illiquid. When the collapse comes, you can’t unload. Get into manufacturing; make something people can use. And make something that you can sell to the world. But Richard, my boy, if you’re really serious about making money, get into the money business. It’s clean, you can use your brains, you can get rid of your inventory and your mistakes in 30 seconds, and your product, money, never goes out of fashion.”

So much for my father’s wisdom (which was obviously tainted by the Great Depression). But Dad was a very wise man. For my own part, I’ve been in a number of businesses — from textile designing to advertising to book publishing to owning a night club to the investment advisory business.

It’s said that every business needs (1) a dreamer, (2) a businessman, and (3) a son-of-a-bitch (S.O.B.). Well, I don’t know about number 3, but most successful businesses do have a number 3 or all too often they seem to have a combined number 2 and number 3.

One warning — many a successful business owner has felt really pumped-up about his success. He then goes into another business (often a restaurant) which he knows nothing about and loses his shirt. Therefore, stay in an area you know and don’t try to swallow the world. Most mergers and takeovers don’t work. Remember, Time-Warner and American on line. What a disaster!

How does Warren Buffett do it? He finds a profitable business that he likes and understands. He always trusts and likes the people who are running the business. Then Buffett buys the whole business, but he doesn’t try to run it; he let’s the people who made the business successful run it, and always without Buffett’s interference.

Bill Gates is known as “America’s richest man.” Bully for Billy. But do you know what Gates’ biggest coup was? When Gates was dealing with IBM, Big Blue needed an operating system for their computer. Gates didn’t have one, but he knew where to find one. A little outfit in Seattle had one. Gates bought the system for a mere $50,000 and presented it to IBM. That was the beginning of Microsoft’s rise to power. Lesson: It’s not enough to have the product, you have to know and understand your market. Gates didn’t have the product, but he knew the market — and he knew where to acquire the product.

Apple had by far the best product in the Mac. But Apple made a monumental mistake. They refused to license ALL PC manufacturers to use the Mac operating system. If they had done that, Apple today could be Microsoft, and Gates would still be trying to come up with something useful (the fact is Microsoft has been a follower and a great marketer, but never an innovator). “Find a need and fill it,” runs the old adage. Maybe today they should change that to, “Dream up a need and fill it.” That’s what has happened in the world of computers. And it will happen again and again. People didn’t know they needed computers until computers were invented. The same goes for cell phones.

All right, let’s return to that wonderful world of perfection. I spent a lot of time and thought in working up the criteria for what I’ve termed the IDEAL BUSINESS. Now, obviously, the ideal business doesn’t exist and probably never will. But if you’re about to start a business or join someone else’s business or if you want to buy a business, the following list should help you. The more of these criteria that you can apply to your new business or new job, the better off you’ll be.

(1) The ideal business sells the world, rather than a single neighborhood or even a single city or state. In other words, it has an unlimited global market (and today this is more important than ever, since world markets have now opened up to an extent unparalleled in my lifetime). By the way, how many times have you seen a retail store that has been doing well for years — then another bigger and better retail store moves nearby, and it’s kaput for the first store.
(2) The ideal business offers a product which enjoys an “inelastic” demand. Inelastic refers to a product that people need or desire — almost regardless of price. Many special drugs fit this description.

(3) The ideal business sells a product which cannot be easily substituted or copied. This means that the product is an original or at least it’s something that can not be copyrighted or patented.

(4) The ideal business has minimal labor requirements (the fewer personnel, the better). Today’s example of this is the much-talked about “virtual corporation.” The virtual corporation may consist of an office with three employees, where literally all manufacturing and services are farmed out to other companies.

(5) The ideal business enjoys low overhead. It does not need an expensive location; it does not need large amounts of electricity, advertising, legal advice, high-priced employees, large inventory, etc.

(6) The ideal business does not require big cash outlays or major investments in equipment. In other words, it does not tie up your capital (incidentally, one of the major reasons for new-business failure is under-capitalization).

(7) The ideal business enjoys cash billings. In other words, it does not tie up your capital with lengthy or complex credit terms.

(8) The ideal business is relatively free of all kinds of government and industry regulations and strictures (and if you’re now in your own business, you most definitely know what I mean with this one).

(9) The ideal business is portable or easily moveable. This means that you can take your business (and yourself) anywhere you want — Nevada, Florida, Texas, Washington, South Dakota (none have state income taxes) or hey, maybe even Monte Carlo or Switzerland or the south of France.

(10) Here’s a crucial one that’s often overlooked; the ideal business satisfies your intellectual (and often emotional) needs. There’s nothing like being fascinated with what you’re doing. When that happens, you’re not working, you’re having fun.

(11) The ideal business leaves you with free time. In other words, it doesn’t require your labor and attention 12, 16 or 18 hours a day (my lawyer wife, who leaves the house at 6:30 AM and comes home at 6:30 PM and often later, has been well aware of this one).

(12) Super-important; the ideal business is one in which your income is not limited by your personal output (lawyers and doctors have this problem). No, in the ideal business you can sell 10,000 customers as easily as you sell one (publishing is an example).

Gold, Silver, Oil and Nat Gas Going Wild!

Precious Metals ETF have gone wild the past 2 weeks. Last week we saw gold and silver prices drop sharply as it shook out short term trader’s stop orders before breaking out and moving higher. Also there is a disconnect between the gold and the dollar.

Energy commodities like natural gas and crude oil are moving in opposite directions and look to be picking up speed. Natural gas is losing pressure and oil is on fire.

GLD ETF Trading – Pivot Trading Low

Last week we had our pivot trading low generate another buy signal for gold. Trading pivot lows is a simple trading strategy. I call them low risk setups and take advantage of buying a stock, commodity or currency after a pullback to support and when a reversal candle is formed. This chart clearly shows when you are trading with the trend buying on the dips is generally a low risk play with great up side potential.

1GoldBullMarket

Precious Metals ETF Trading – Gold Bullion Takes Control

This is a chart which shows the performance of gold stocks (red), silver bullion (blue) and gold bullion (green). As you can see the past 2 weeks while the market has been selling down precious metals stocks have been hit harder than silver and gold.

Because of the heavy selling in stocks recently the smart money had been going into commodities especially gold bullion. Gold stocks are a great play but this is telling us investors feel safer in physical bullion than stocks.

Gold is the most known precious metal and safe haven which is why it’s holding value better than silver and stocks. This week we are seeing gold become more valuable in several major currencies which means gold is actually making a real move higher.

2GoldSilverStocks

USO ETF Trading – Breakout & Bull Flag
Crude oil has had some great breakouts this year and it looks like we are about to get another buy signal shortly. We had a breakout in Oct from the large pennant and are now flagging which is very bullish. We could see USO reach $50 in the next month or two.

3CrudeOilBullMarket

UNG ETF Trading – Pivot Low or Waterfall Sell Off?
Natural gas is at a crucial level for a higher low bounce or another massive panic sell off. Trading right now with UNG is a 50/50 shot so we will just have to wait and let things unfold more before taking any action

4NaturalGasPivotLow

The Stock Markets, Precious Metals & Energy Trading Conclusion:
The market is starting to feel a little squirmy as it tries to find support. Small cap stocks continue to get crushed while blue chip (large cap) stocks are holding more of their value. Gold has broken higher this week while silver and precious metal stocks under perform their big sister Yellow Gold.

Crude oil is holding up nicely forming a 3 week bull flag and showing signs of life while natural gas continues to get hammered.

The market has been jumpy the past 2 weeks because market participants are very uneasy about the future direction of the US dollar.

If you would like to receive these free trading reports go HERE.

header_03

Chris Vermeulen is the founder of TheGoldAndOilGuy newsletter. I provide you with unparalleled trading newsletter with charts, signals and email support. Unlike other investing newsletters, I’m a one man show. That’s because I don’t want some hired hand giving you advice while I take it easy on a beach somewhere. You ALWAYS get precise, valuable information DIRECTLY from ME.

Friday is Key

Short Update

Friday’s employment number is almost certainly IMHO the key to what the U.S. stock market does for the balance of the year. Any real indication that unemployment is easing should give the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd the ammunition to resume it’s march towards DJIA 10,500+. On the other hand (I never like to hedge but it’s the right choice at the moment), a surprise bump up in unemployment should remove whatever hot air remains under the market and lead to a sharper decline. Friday is key!

The floor I spoke of in gold at four digits is now in. Numerous so-called experts, money managers, investors, etc., were either outright bearish, turned bearish or became weak knee and looked for a correction when gold was around $1,000. They never got a chance to get back in and now the market has gotten away from them. The natural tendency is to try and talk the gold price back so you can justify not chasing to get back in but that has not been a worthy approach for years in gold. The bears have a gigantic problem. Sorry but I won’t lose any sleep over the anti-gold getting their just dessert.

PG1104

The U.S. Dollar continue to be long on anticipation of a bear market rally but way short on delivering on it. Again, it needs to get above 78 on the U.S. Dollar Index before we change even our short-term outlook.

PG11041

I still hope to see oil at $85+ in hopes of getting short again.

PG11044

Natural gas is ho-hum.

PG11042

I continue to like shorting U.S. Treasuries 10 and 30-yr maturities.

PG11043

I updated model portfolio recommendations. Please note I extended the buy zone on Continental Minerals. The trading pattern continues to suggest heavy accumulation. We now have two business competitors who appear not to like each other and both apparently need what KMK has. I think a $3+ share price is what it would take to get management’s support of a friendly bid. Stay tuned!

The more I look at metal prices and Bisha, the more I love Nevsun Resources. Given what metal prices have done of late, I think $3 or under is relatively cheap for NSU shares. Great Basin Gold remains quite cheap given the big bump up in gold prices.

Company Alert

In previous articles I have told you about the leverage that you will get from emerging producers.  Gold hit an all time high today of $1089. Timmins Gold is so close to pouring gold you can taste it.

A story that I have written about before is Timmins Gold and its San Francisco mine in Mexico. Timmins Gold is ramping up in hopes of full production before the end of 2009.  The company has begun the leach process and now has gold in the leach fluids. The next step will be to extract the gold using the gold plant on site.  This is planned for the next few weeks. Next year Timmins Gold can be producing between 80,000 and 100,000 ounces of gold at a cash cost of approximately $400 per ounce. The company has been drilling around the current pit and should also have some exploration results before the end of this year.

Timmins’ expansion plan consists of expanding the current reserve and lifespan of the San Francisco Mine, advance its other exploration projects and to make strategic acquisitions all utilizing future cash flow and not by dilution. The recent deal with Sprott was a watershed event IMHO. I’m of course bias due to my working relationship but I feel with the fundamentals finally firing on all cylinders, gold’s big break-out, and the chart on TMM suggesting a close above $.88 could be a break out for the stock, most speculators need to consider the company ASAP.

big.chart

 

 

To HERE Peter speak and others speak on Trading go HERE:
allstar2

Off to Toronto for BNN tomorrow then Montreal Investment Conference.

 

On Major Moves, Grandich has been very right and not only saved many investors fortunes, but expanded them dramatically. On November 3, 2007 at the MoneyTalks Survival Conference, Peter Grandich of the Grandich Letter warned that “an unprecedented economic tsunami will hit American beginning in 2008”.   Peter advised publicly to short the US market two days from the top in October, 2007 and stayed short until the last week of October, 2008. He began to buy stocks in March 7th,  2009. He also bought oil and oil related investments near the lows after the dive from $147.
….go to visit Peter’s Website.

 

Oil – $20 a Barrel or $200?

OIL_adjusted

If the U.S. dollar strengthens and the global economy weakens as government stimulus runs dry, oil could plummet in a massive “head-fake” to $20/barrel.

….read more HERE.

test-php-789