Stocks & Equities

Tesla Discloses US Revenues Collapsed 39%

This is a holy-cow moment.

This morning, Tesla filed its Form 10-Q quarterly earnings report with the SEC, a moment when no one was supposed to pay attention after the surprise quarterly profit that had caused such a hullabaloo last week. The 10-Q provides a pile of additional detail that Tesla is not required to disclose in its promo-laden earnings report that was primarily designed to downplay its first year-over-year revenue decline since the Financial Crisis.

But that revenue decline is a lot more nerve-wracking than what it looks like on the surface…CLICK for complete article

Technically Speaking: 4-Risks To The Bullish View

When I was growing up, my father, probably much like yours, had pearls of wisdom that he would drop along the way. It wasn’t until much later in life that I learned that such knowledge did not come from books but through experience. One of my favorite pieces of “wisdom” was:

“A sure-fire ‘no lose’ proposition is doing exactly the opposite of whatever ‘no lose’ proposition is being proposed.”

Of course, back then, he was mostly giving me “life advice” about not following along with my stupid-ass friends who were always up elbows deep in mischief.

However, that advice also holds true with the financial markets currently. As I have noted over the last couple of weeks (read this and this) the “bulls” certainly seem to regained control of the markets as new highs were reached on Monday. As I stated, between the Fed cutting rates, reigniting “not-QE,” and the President following our script of putting the “trade war” to rest, “what is there NOT to love if you are a bull.”

While we have begun to opportunistically increase our the equity exposures in our portfolios, we are cognizant there are currently several warning signs investors should consider before buying into the “bullish view.”

Here are four to consider….CLICK for complete article

Tesla’s Tipping Point: Breaking Into China

Tesla chief Elon Musk believes China be the tipping point that will lead to his company’s global domination of the electric vehicle stage, but it’s become a very tough sell.

China has had close to two-thirds of the booming global EV sales market so far this year — 61.8 percent with 872,000 units sold through September 30. Tesla’s US home market only made for 236,067 EVs sold this year — 16.7 percent of the total.

But the stakes are quite high for this to become a win-win for Musk. Tesla’s new Shanghai plant started selling its first Model 3s on Friday, but the small electric sedans were given a starting price of Rmb 355,800 ($50,320). That’s roughly 3 percent less than the cost of the same model imported from the US with import tariffs sitting at 15 percent…CLICK for complete article

Louis Vuitton Maker Is Looking to Buy Tiffany

LVMH offered about $14.5 billion in cash for U.S. jeweler Tiffany & Co. in what would be the biggest purchase by the French owner of Louis Vuitton, according to people familiar with the matter.

LVMH’s all-cash bid values Tiffany at about $120 a share, one of the people said. That’s almost 22% more than the closing price of $98.55 on Oct. 25. The luxury group approached Tiffany with a takeover proposal earlier this month, said the people, who asked not to be identified because discussions are private. Tiffany is currently evaluating the bid and there’s no guarantee an agreement will be reached, they said.

Tiffany shares are worth $12 billion after advancing about 22% this year. Paris-based LVMH has risen 49%, giving it a market capitalization of about $215 billion….CLICK for complete article

Most Millennial Traders Weren’t Even Born When Nokia Crashed This Hard

Nokia shares plunged 25% on Thursday after management warned its 2019/2020 profits would be disastrous after a delay in earnings from 5G networks, reported Bloomberg. As a result of the abrupt revision in outlook, the Finnish telecom network equipment maker cut its 2020 forecast and suspended a dividend to investors.

Nokia says 2019 EPS is around 0.18 to 0.24 euros for 2019 and will be around 0.20 to 0.30 euros in 2020. Earlier this year, the telecom maker was expecting EPS to be about 0.25 to 0.29 euros for 2019, and 2020 EPS of 0.37 to 0.42 euros, a dramatic revision lower, which is what spooked investors to panic sell the stock into one of the worst declines in the company’s history in nearly three decades. The last time Nokia puked this hard, most millennial traders weren’t even born….CLICK for complete article

The Bandwagon Effect: A World Series Lesson For Investors

Opening day is a glorious time for baseball fans. Warmer temperatures and blooming shrubbery are on their way, and more importantly, their favorite teams will begin a stretch of 162 games that culminates with a best-of-seven battle between the American and National League champions.

With leaves falling and colder temperatures upon us, most baseball fans are left out in the cold. However, here in Washington D.C., and no doubt in Houston, everyone is a diehard fan cheering their team on to a World Series crown.

Curly W’s, the logo of the Washington Nationals (Nats) baseball team, litter the streets, schools, and even office buildings of D.C. Everyone is on board the Nationals train, yet in August you could have spent a paltry $20 for a decent seat and shown up to a half-empty stadium to see the same Nationals play. Today, standing room only tickets for the World Series are said to be fetching $1000.

As the Nationals and Astros begin the World Series, the baseball gods are teaching us a valuable lesson that applies to investing as much as it does sports.

Bandwagon Bias

Within the last month or so, the Nationals and Astros have attracted a huge following of “bandwagon” fans. People who were casual fans or not even fans at all are gripped by a desire and the camaraderie of being with a winner.

Trina Ulrich, a friend of ours and sports psychology professor at American University, was recently interviewed by radio station WAMU to talk about the psychology behind bandwagon fans. The interview and article can be found HERE. Stay tuned as The Lance Roberts Podcast will be interviewing Trina in November.

Trina Ulrich defines the bandwagon effect as follows: “[It’s] essentially a psychological phenomenon that happens when people are doing something because others are doing it already.” Sound familiar?

We have written many articles describing and warning about the dangers of market bandwagons, in particular, investor conformity and the so-called herding effect. These biases are widespread in today’s market place and are extremely important to grasp….CLICK for complete article