Gold & Precious Metals
Fed Frets Over High Mortgage Rates, ‘Low’ Inflation Level
The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday the economy continues to recover but is still in need of support, offering no indication that it is planning to reduce its bond-buying stimulus at its next meeting in September.
The central bank said after a two-day meeting that it would keep buying $85 billion in mortgage and Treasury securities per month in its effort to strengthen an economy that it said was still challenged by federal budget-tightening. It also pointed to a recent run up in mortgage rates.
In a post-meeting statement, policymakers described economic activity as having expanded at a “modest” pace in the first half of the year. They had called the recovery “moderate” after their last meeting in June.
In another departure, the Fed’s policy-setting committee signaled some concern about the low level of inflation.
…..read more HERE
The July FOMC Statement – A Brief Comment
Keeping the Kremlinologists Busy
Amazingly, this month’s FOMC statement incorporates altogether six changes from the previous statement. Can we still call it a carbon copy? Yes, we can. We can, because that’s what it essentially is. Readers can see all the alterations at a glance via the WSJ’s handy ‘Fed statement tracker‘.
Still, with six words, respectively half-sentences changed, Kremlinologists will be very busy parsing this statement and attempting to extract its meaning. The main question will be: will they keep printing? It actually appears that the irrational ‘taper fears’ can now be laid to rest. We have maintained throughout the debate that the idea that the Fed would ‘tighten policy’ in any way, shape or form, was essentially a media hoax from the beginning. Most likely, the whole artificial debate was a ‘trial balloon’, to see how the markets would react. In addition, the Fed is always eager to maintain that its policy of rapid inflation is actually not inflationary, which is to say it attempts to ‘manage inflation expectations’. ‘Tapering’ and ‘exit’ talk are simply part of its propaganda arsenal to that effect.
We think Peter Schiff had it exactly right when he said that the mythical ‘exit’ is akin to doing the old table-cloth trick, but amounts to an attempt to pull out the whole table, not just the cloth, while hoping that the glasses and plates will continue to levitate on their own. The Fed won’t have much opportunity to practice to make sure that the magic trick will ‘work’.
So what is there to say about the changes in the statement?
….read more HERE
The CRB Index Monthly Chart
Greg does not believe we have seen the end of the Commodity Supercycle, but merely a large correction, which he believes is finished.
Greg also mentions that the “hot money” has exited the commodity sector and moved on. Since Bernanke’s latest pronouncements, both the dollar and Chinese Yuan have fallen, which is bullish for commodities. Greg believes Fed policy has pushed money out of safer assets like bonds and into riskier assets. He sees the bond market as the real battleground looking ahead.
Ed Note: you can listen to Greg talk briefly (about a minute) to his interviewer Jim Pupluva HERE, but to listen to the full interview with Greg you would have to subscribe for either a $15 monthly subscription or an annual $120 subscription HERE
Elliott Management’s 22-page letter to investors has something for everyone as Paul Singer ascribes his uniquely independent wisdom. From the fragility of the financial system to the hubris of academic pretenders; from inflation’s various devious impacts on assets and reality to the floundering of the world’s bankers; from America’s “cooked data” to the pending social unrest in Europe and the perils of centralized power, Singers stresses “the temptation to debase fiat currencies… means owning claims on paper money is an act of either faith or denial.” Recent market movements, Singer warns “indicate a world on life-support,” and “for every day, month and year that policymakers try to substitute failed, inappropriate and risky QE policies for pro-growth policies, the debt mounts, as does resentment among middle-income families that their situation is not improving.” The fact of the matter is that “no government has ever reached fiscal ‘nirvana,’ yet our central bank (and its peers) continues to push the envelope of risk, confidence and inflation.” Despite the confident and brave words in which they are wrapped, central bank actions currently seem underscored by quiet panic.
….read a summary on recent market volatility, the Un-Taper after any Taper, inflation, The Global Economy Turning Up?, ‘Fiat currencies’ and much more HERE