Gold & Precious Metals

Gartman: Gold is going ‘several hundred dollars higher’

Screen Shot 2013-08-02 at 6.06.42 AM

Gold Chart Screenshot Above taken at 6:05 am PST

 

The sell off in gold has run its course, and the precious metal is set on an upward trajectory thinks Dennis Gartman. Gartman is a closely followed commodities trader and founder of The Gartman Letter.

The low that gold prices hit a month ago will stand as the bottom for “a fairly long period of time,” Gartman told CNBC on Friday (July 26th).

“I had been agnostic and modestly bearish of gold until about three and a half weeks ago,”  “Then I wrote what I call ‘a watershed commentary’ that gold was going to go several hundred dollars higher.”

Ed Note: Here is a quotation from Mark Leibovit’s August 1st VR Gold Letter concerning Dennis Gartman:

“Dennis Gartman insists that there are no conspiracies in gold

Wednesday’s “Talking Numbers” program by CNBC and Yahoo Finance concocted a silly pillow fight between two talking heads, commodity letter writer Dennis Gartman and UBS and CNBC analyst Art Cashin, over “gold conspiracy theories,” Cashin having remarked this week, if a bit incoherently, that something seems to be wrong in the gold market.

Gartman disagreed today, insisting that there are no conspiracies in gold. So apparently Gartman would have investors believe, just for starters:

1) The Federal Reserve has no secret gold swap arrangements with foreign banks, since such undertakings among two or more entities would define conspiracy, and Fed Governor Kevin M. Warsh was lying when he admitted such secret arrangements.

2) The Bank for International Settlements is not constantly and secretly trading gold, gold futures, gold options, and other gold-related derivatives on behalf of its members, which are exclusively central banks — again, action undertaken secretly in concert by two or more entities, or conspiracy — and that admissions of such trading, including the BIS’ own annual reports and Power Point presentations, are lies or forgeries.”

Six years after a recession that rocked the global financial system, there is no shortage of excitement. Especially during a season that is known as the “doldrums of summer,” it has been a week that has propelled equity markets to record levels. On Thursday of this past week, the NASDAQ touched levels not seen for the last twelve years, and the Standard and Poor’s 500 broke and closed above the physiological level of 1,700 for the first time in history.  The FOMC released their most recent policy announcement on Wednesday, and continued to distinguish for investors that tapering QE is independent of tightening credit conditions by raising interest rates. The other big news stories were the US Commerce Department’s initial estimates for second quarter GDP, followed by Weekly Jobless Claims report where the number of American’s filing for unemployment benefits drop to the lowest level in 5 and ½ years. And Friday, the marquee event is the always market consuming monthly labour survey or monthly unemployment report.

            So as an investor – is it time to be cautious?

            Let’s start with the FOMC. They really have no choice but to start tapering their asset purchases, and frankly this point has not been made clear enough. Currently, their monthly purchases of 85 billion break down between mortgage securities and long term treasuries in the amounts of 40 and 45 billion respectively. Annualized, that is 540 billion in treasury purchases. Many economists have estimated that the Fed is currently purchasing anywhere between 60 and 75 percent of the issued treasuries from auction in 2012. Moreover, as the Congressional Budget Office estimates the US Treasury to run smaller deficits in the upcoming years, the market does not require this much support. More to this though is that it exemplifies the role to which the US Fed plays in the treasuries market; Ben Bernanke and his board of governors have to be nervous about the long term consequences of this program, and thus will be looking to draw it down.

            According to the Commerce Department though, the US economy looks to be regaining its footing. Quarterly GDP reported on Wednesday of this week came in seven tenth of a percent greater than anticipated. This compensated for the miss in the first quarter of 2013, but the caveat is initial estimates for quarterly GDP have been revised lower on the last four occasions. It the reason the markets shrugged off the reading at first glance as it is still not all that convincing.  The other reason for caution, is historically nominal economic growth below 3% has preceded negative real growth and recession. Despite modest upticks in the Fed’s medium and long term outlooks for inflation, currently inflation is practically non-existent; therefore, the economy is more likely to underperform in months ahead.

            Good news can be taken from Thursdays jobless claims though as the fewest number of Americans filed for unemployment benefits in over 5 years, and this is a piece of the data that continues to illustrate the merely modest improvements being made in the labour market. And that is why Friday’s July survey becomes all that important. More than the jobless rate, the participation rate will illustrate whether discouraged workers are re-entering the labour force, and as well whether or not the private sector can continue to be the engine of job creation.

            This action packed week of what is supposed to be the summer slowdown will set the stage for financial markets going into fall. No question the debate around the Fed’s taper schedule will grow louder and louder, but as an investor the nominal amounts of their bond purchases is of miniscule significance. What is more important is this labour market needs to see gains in participation and quality full time jobs, and this economy requires enough steam to escape a period of disinflation. If not, don’t worry about the doldrums of summer; worry about the doldrums of the United States.

Click here for a link to the original article. 

 

Peter Schiff – Detroit Broke City

Screen Shot 2013-08-01 at 1.52.01 PMIt should come as no surprise that the lessons that should be learned from the bankruptcy of Detroit, a city that once stood as the shining example of America’s industrial might, are being ignored by the American political establishment and its allies in the docile press corps. While the death spiral of the Motor City may be extreme in relation to conditions throughout the country, it is a difference of degree rather than design. In truth, Detroit is our canary in the coal mine. It is succumbing to the same combination of productive decay, government mismanagement, and unmanageable debt that is crushing the rest of us. But as the most sub-prime of all major American cities, the symptoms that are infecting all of us have first become fatal in Detroit.

Proving that politicians want nothing more than to tell soothing lies to voters, Detroit mayoral candidate Tom Barrow has forcefully asserted that the city’s fiscal crisis is a fiction. In a recent TV interview he described a long term conspiracy by republican and private sector forces to steal assets from Detroit residents, bust the unions, and disenfranchise voters. Not to be outdone in absurdity, MSNBC host Ari Melber concluded that Detroit’s problems result from the libertarian movement to deny residents needed government services. He ignores the fact that Detroit’s government did not whither by choice, but by necessity. Thanks to years of excessive government the city lacks the resources to fund the basic services that even most libertarians support. Others claim that Detroit is just as deserving of federal bailouts as the Big Three or the communities wiped out by natural disasters such as Hurricane Sandy. But there is nothing “natural” about the fiscal disaster in Detroit, and the mistake of bailing out the auto companies should not be compounded on a municipal level.  

The real story of Detroit is that its problems are entirely man-made, and can be summed up in seven words. Private enterprise built it, government destroyed it. That is the screaming headline that is unfortunately absent from the media coverage.

In the first half of the 20th Century, Detroit offered good manufacturing jobs to nearly 200,000 workers. The booming labor market caused the City’s population to swell to 1.8 million by mid Century. But the jobs did not come from government programs or public “investments” in education and training. They were in fact created by the vibrancy of American capitalism, the vision of forward thinking industrialists, the strong work ethic of the labor force, and the relative non-interference from government or organized labor. (“The Big Three” auto companies did not begin to bargain collectively with the United Auto Workers until 1941).

Anyone who has ever had the pleasure of encountering a classic American car like a 1934 Oldsmobile 8 Convertible Coupe or a 1941 Chrysler Town & Country should get a sense of why Detroit prospered as it did. Not only were these cars stunning pieces of engineering and craftsmanship, but they were surprisingly affordable for many middle class Americans. The wealth generated by the makers of these cars, and the myriad of lesser manufacturers that serviced them, flowed to all classes of people in Detroit, allowing the city to build great buildings and civic spaces, establish world class arts institutions, and contributed greatly to the country’s cultural achievements. 

But as the city reached its zenith, organized labor and government at the state, federal and local levels combined to kill the goose that laid the golden eggs. Although Detroit continued to produce and prosper into the 1950s, the Vietnam era marked a turning point for the auto industry and the city it represented. While the bureaucratic structure and myopic hubris of the largely unchallenged American auto industry certainly contributed to its decline in the post war years, the real blame falls squarely on labor unions and government. Facing the unshakable power of a monopolized labor force backed by the full might of a democratically controlled political machine, the auto companies had to agree to wage hikes, restrictive work rules, and long-term pension commitments that they simply could not survive.

Politically, the voting block dynamics of a heavily unionized municipality created a perfect storm for Detroit. Mayors and councilman were elected based on the ability to continue to promise more to the unions, who of course showered their preferred candidates with campaign funds. And while the auto companies were free to back candidates of their own, there is no substitute for actual voters. As a result, Detroit has been saddled with generations of corrupt and incompetent governments funded by corrupt, incompetent unions. Both camps have essentially no understanding of how their city was built and how the promises they were making to future generations could never be kept once the industries succumbed under the heavy hand of taxation, regulation, and labor coercion.

Today the population of Detroit has declined more than 60% from its peak and the number of manufacturing jobs has fallen by 90% to fewer than 20,000. Meanwhile the city’s municipal debt is now more than $18 billion, which translates into $25,000 per citizen in a city where fewer than half the adult population is employedand nearly half are functionally illiterate. It has promised more than $3 billion to 20,000 city pensioners ($150,000 each) that it simply doesn’t have. Detroit’s Emergency Manager Kevyn Orr recently showed how the City spends 38 cents of every new tax dollar on these “legacy costs,” a figure he expects will grow to 65 cents. This means that there is no money left to run the city. But rather than acknowledging these problems, Detroit politicians, like the aforementioned mayoral candidate, like to pretend that they don’t exist. 

Things are no different in Washington. On a national level we have also promised far more than we can deliver. In addition to our acknowledged current national debt of almost $17 trillion ($53,400 per citizen), there is another $87 trillion in unfunded obligations that the Federal government has promised to pay Social Security and Medicare recipients over the next 75 years. (These figures are over and above the projected revenues those programs are scheduled to bring in.) This difference comes to another $290,000 per citizen. Anyone remotely aware of the financial well-being of the average American will know these figures are well beyond our means. But this hasn’t motivated us to reform entitlements in a way that will render them affordable.

Very few politicians are prepared to level with the American people about our fiscal dead end. Similarly, they will not fully acknowledge the extent that government micromanagement of industry through the tax code and overly restrictive labor and health care policies has severely undermined the ability of U.S. industry to compete internationally. As a result, we have seen a steady disappearance of our manufacturing jobs nationally, just like Detroit has. The big difference of course is that Washington has a printing press. In the end, however, that will make little difference.

The good news is that the same forces that built Detroit could help turn it around, if only they were allowed to function. First off, Detroit needs to default on its debt. This means the bond holders and the citizenry will suffer. But after this painful process is complete, Detroit will have a few things going for it. It will boast abundantly cheap real estate and plenty of desperate workers. If government were to relax employment regulations, cut business and sales taxes, crack down on union intimidation tactics, and eliminate the minimum wage, the employers would sense the opportunity and return. Although industry could not offer the kinds of high paying jobs that it had in the past, Detroit would at least be hiring again. Although the city will be set back generations, at least it would be moving. But the left would erupt in fury. We are programmed to perceive such developments as greedy exploitation rather than the natural manner in which capitalism cures excess and starts again at square one. Liberals would rather the unemployed stay that way rather than suffer the degradations of capitalism. So instead of such honest cures, look for Detroit to borrow its way out of the crisis while pretending to fix its chronic problems. If we laugh at their foolishness, we should all look in the mirror.

 

To order your copy of Peter Schiff’s latest book, The Real Crash: America’s Coming Bankruptcy – How to Save Yourself and Your Country, click here.

Peter Schiff is the CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, best-selling author and host of syndicated Peter Schiff Show. 

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5 Point Test for Every Investment

CD SavingsThe issue is no longer one of waiting to see what the government is going to do; the real issue is what are we as investors going to do?

When I say the investment paradigm has changed, I’m referring to a combination of factors. There are no more solid, safe investments paying any kind of decent yield that most retirees could possibly live on comfortably. Re-read that if you have to. Investors are being forced to take on more risk for yield. Some are doing it usingan income strategy, some are not.

CD rates are not just uselessly low, they’re practically insulting. Bonds were once considered some of the safest investments one could make. But now they pay next to nothing and come with all sorts of risk: think Greece, Ireland, or even Detroit as the most recent example.   

….read the 5 point test you now need to apply each stock, bond, ETF, mutual fund HERE

On ‘Keiser Report,’ bullion trader Maguire describes run on the London gold banks

Interviewed yesterday by Max Keiser on the “Keiser Report” on the Russia TV television network, London bullion trader and silver market rigging whistleblower Andrew Maguire said there is a run on the London bullion banks, that the Federal Reserve’s big dumping of paper gold in April bought a little time for the banks but only increased the offtake of real metal from the grossly overleveraged fractional-reserve gold banking system, that the Bank of England is advancing metal into the London market every day to avert defaults, that the United Kingdom’s gold sales begun in 1999 were undertaken to rescue gold short Goldman Sachs, and that the Western gold banking system is now in the same short squeeze that threatened it 14 years ago. Yesterday’s “Keiser Report” is posted at YouTube and the interview with Maguire is about 13 minutes long and begins at the 13-minute mark here:

  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j615aokEA_Y

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.