Energy & Commodities

The Incredible surge in U.S. oil production

For a larger chart view go HERE

US Could Be World’s Largest Crude Oil Producer By 2014 On Surging Output. 

Crude oil production in the United States surged to 7.745 million barrels per day last week, according to the latest data from the Energy Information Administration. If production rises another 20 percent in 2014, the U.S. could challenge Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s largest crude oil producer. According to the EIA, both countries are currently producing just below 10 million barrels per day.

 

US Stocks: Terrible Technicals

Sometimes charts, graphs, and images line up persuasively, and for U.S. stocks John makes the case that this is one of those once in the blue moon times:

A few examples:

Broadening triangle
This one is from David Chapman, manager of the Millennium Bullion Fund. As he describes it in a recent SafeHaven article:

A broadening triangle pattern is rare and if it does occur it normally is not seen over such a long period of time. This pattern saw its first peak in 2000 (A) followed by the initial bottom in 2002 (B) followed by the huge 5 year rally that topped in October 2007 (C) then the 2008 financial crisis crash (D). The current rally that got underway in March 2009 could soon make its final top (E).

A bearish broadening or expanding triangle would normally break down through the bottom of the triangle and have objectives that could in theory equal the widest point of the triangle. In this case, that would be D to E. This scenario could result in a complete collapse of the DJI. Some technical analysts such as Robert Prechter of Elliot Wave International www.elliotwave.com and Robert McHugh of McHugh’s Market Forecasting & Trading Report www.technicalindicatorindex.com have long been forecasting a potential final top to the current Grand Supercycle and that it could culminate in a huge financial collapse. This appears to fit their model.

Broadening-triangle

…see more on Magazine cover hyperbole, Excessive P/E ratios, Consumer Sentiment & Margin Debt HERE

“Just as the monetary indicators are turning positive [for gold],” said HSBC in a report Thursday, “physical demand – a mainstay of the market through the summer – is turning less supportive.”

Reuters today notes a sharp fall this week in Asian premiums for physical gold, over and above benchmark London prices.

Hong Kong premiums fell to $1.50 per ounce from $2.50, the newswire says. Tokyo gold went to a slight discount to London settlement.

“There has only been investment buying because of the Fed decision,” says Hong Kong dealer Ronald Leung at Lee Cheong Gold. “There is no physical interest” from jewelry stockists.

The Implications Are Staggering – Especially For Gold

“The Federal Reserve shocked the financial world this week, defying universal expectations”

Ed Note:This is a thorough analysis of the Fed’s decision, especially as it relates to Gold. There are two great charts I have enclosed below and a lot of links to support his judgement and declarations. Click on either chart or the title of his article Fed Unleashes Gold below to read this long and detailed article: 

Zeal092013B

Zeal092013A

Flipping Real estate? Here’s how to do it right

Ozzie Jurock Photo 09-webInvestors often turn to real estate, looking to flip as a way to earn big money fast. Real-estate experts agree, however, that people need to do their research so their flips don’t flop.

To start, potential investors need to be clear on exactly what kind of flip they’re prepared to pursue. There’s the “quick flip”; buying a place, fixing it up, and selling it within a year; and buying a property, renting it out for a longer period, then getting rid of it.

“All three are totally different animals,” says Vancouver-based Ozzie Jurock, president of the Jurock Real Estate Insider. “People want simple answers. It’s not so straightforward as hoping some other greater fool will pay more the next day than what you paid today.”

The basics                                                                                                       Ozzie Jurock

“The number one requirement to flip has nothing to do with the market but has to do with you: it’s guts,” says Jurock, who’s currently keen on Phoenix and Las Vegas for real-estate investing. “You have to step up to the plate. In our club every month we have people talk about how they saw a deal. They’ll say ‘I saw it, I knew it was great, I did my research, but I didn’t move and someone else got it.’ They’re human beings; they act on emotions. It’s not all clear numbers.”

There are many success stories, though. He points to a senior couple he’s worked with who wanted to flip as a means to increase their annual income. They decided on flipping four properties a year, one every three months. Their first year they made $32,000; the second, $68,000.

“And this year they’re well on their way to doing it again,” Jurock notes. “To them it’s ideal because they’re clear [about their goals]. Often what we don’t have in real-estate investment is clarity. When people aren’t clear, they’re running around all over the place, ‘Joe says I should do this. Have you heard about this?’ As a flipper, know thyself. Have guts to act.

“What is the reason why this or that property is going to be worth more after you buy it?” Jurock adds. “Is it because you’re going to add value to it by painting? Or is there something happening in that town–a new sawmill opening up or a new power station–some kind of economic reason?”

Making money by flipping also involves “elbow grease”, Jurock says, who points to Edmonton, Calgary, and Surrey as other strong markets for investors. “Say you buy a place that’s a bit rundown. You paint it, clean it, cut the grass, put on new front door, put big brass numbers out front; only spend money on the main floor. Don’t spend a lot of money on stupid stuff. Don’t ever put a bidet in a washroom.”

He says the “classic” flip everybody wants is a foreclosure. He suggests people go to the courthouse and see how the process works. Money can be made on these properties, but again, people need guts. “Understand yourself,” he says.

Finally, remember there’s risk involved.

“You might go somewhere and buy the wrong thing,” Jurock says. “Or you might buy the right condo at the wrong time. Markets are cyclical.”

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