Timing & trends
Twelve months ago the world was happily sailing along in the Great Moderation, with financial markets that moved gracefully higher most of the time but even in their rare negative moments didn’t cause too much angst. The eleven trading days leading up to September 3 saw not a single triple-digit move on the Dow, and only three down sessions.
What a difference a year makes. During the same eleven days in 2015 the Dow had exactly one single-digit close — and eight 200+ point sessions. Stomach-churning descents into the abyss are followed the next day by epic recoveries. The only thing moving in a straight line is volatility.

This is what the world looks like when things stop working. China’s well-oiled, top-down export machine turned out to be the mother of all Ponzi schemes. The Fed is tipping into the next crisis without reloading its interest rate bazooka. The US political process is suddenly interesting in the bad sense of that word. Brazil is not well-run after all. Japan’s Abenomics is appearing in headlines with the word “failure”.
The markets can’t figure out whom to trust — or indeed if anyone can be trusted. So money is sloshing around looking for a place to hide. One day it’s Treasuries, the next day blue chips or tech. But none turn out to be warm, dry and quiet, so the search continues.
If this sounds a lot like 2008 heading into the “one day away from martial law” Wall Street coup, that’s because in many respects that time and this one match up perfectly. All that’s missing from the present is a stock market crash.
While business cycles are a normal part of life (there have been 22 recessions in the U.S. since 1900), many businesses are woefully unprepared for shocks and will pay the ultimate price in the months and years ahead. As Milton Friedman articulated, they will become victims to “the tyranny of the status quo” by thinking it was safer to stay the course, rather than adapt… CLICK HERE for the complete article
Is it over? Will the stock market now make a beeline back to the highs, then on to new record highs?
Not yet! The long-awaited correction, according to my models, is far from over. Yes, we may see the dust settle for a few more days. We may even see more strong spikes higher.
But my work tells me there is much danger on the horizon, and the Dow Industrials have not yet bottomed. Not even close. Nor have the other major indices such as the Dow Transports, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq.
Nor has Europe bottomed. Or Asia.
So don’t be deceived if you see some rallies. Don’t let your stockbroker load you up on stocks, of any kind.
Instead, mark my words: The time to buy is not yet here. In the weeks ahead, you will see …
– The Dow Industrials plummet as low as 13,937
– The NASDAQ as low as 3,162
– The S&P 500 as low as 1,710
How sure am I? In this business, it’s a rare exception when someone can be 100% sure.
But if I had to rate the odds of new lows ahead for stocks, I’d say they’re better than 90%.
FIRST, is this cycle forecast chart for the Dow Industrials. It’s the type of cycle forecast I frequently show members of my Supercycle Trader, who actively speculate in the markets per my specifically chosen and timed recommendations.
And who also just bagged a sweet 121% gain on a bearish position in stocks, more than doubling their money, in just one week!
As you can see from this chart, which is based on billions of calculations of stock market data via an artificial intelligence model or neural net …
After a brief stabilizing period and bounce (red line) into the middle of this month, the stock market is likely to nosedive into the third week of October.
That low can come in as low as 13,937 in the Dow.
SECOND, is Europe. My models show similar patterns for virtually all stock markets in Europe. Some stabilization and a possible bounce into the middle of this month, then a collapse.
Moreover, Europe’s economic data is far worse than the lackluster data on the U.S. economy. Deflation is worsening in Europe. Industrial production is sliding. Consumer confidence is near lows.
And all the policies that have made Europe such a basket case in the first place — including a hair brained single currency experiment — continue to squeeze the European Union as if it were in a vice with a one way screw that can only be further tightened by insane leaders.
THIRD, is Asia. Long-term, Asia, including China, is fine. But my work tells me the markets there too have not yet bottomed. But keep an eye on them, for when they do bottom — especially China — they will likely bottom ahead of Western markets.
Why? Because in a very real sense today, Asia — especially China — leads the world.
They used to say when the U.S. sneezed, the rest of the world caught a cold. Now it’s the other way around: When China sneezes, the rest of the world gets pneumonia.
There are many more reasons why I believe stock markets have not yet bottomed.
So here’s what I strongly suggest:
A. If you own any stocks, with the exception of specifically selected ones you plan to own longer-term, just get out. If you cannot get out, then hedge your holdings via an inverse ETF such as the ProShares Short Dow30, symbol DOG.
B. Do not — I repeat — do not go bottom fishing. In any sector. It makes no sense to bottom fish stocks that have already lost, say 30% or more, when they can easily lose another 30% or more.
Instead …
C. Build your cash so that you can deploy it at the right time, near or at the bottom of the correction …
Fully keeping in mind that the long-term bull market in stocks is still intact — and that over the next couple of years the Dow Industrials can easily stage a slingshot move back up and more than double to over 31,000. Ditto for other major U.S. broad market indices.
And all on the backbone of frightened capital rushing out of the collapsing cancerous debts of the doomed-to-fail Western socialist-style economies of Europe and Japan.
Washington will collapse too, but not for a couple of years. So make hay of it while you can, just like my Supercycle Trader members are starting to do.
Best wishes,
Larry
The photo you see below was snapped recently in Beijing. It might not be that special to some readers, but in my 25 years of visiting the Chinese capital, I’ve never seen a blue sky because it’s always been blotted out by yellow smog. Beijing is clearly undergoing a transformation right now. This might please proponents of the green movement, but it’s ultimately harmful to the health of the manufacturing sector.

On the other hand, blue skies could be ahead for China’s service industries!
Misconception and exaggeration are circling China’s economy right now like a flock of hungry buzzards. If you listen only to the popular media, you might believe that the Asian giant is teetering on the brink of economic disaster, with the Shanghai Composite Index’s recent correction and devaluation of the renminbi held up as “proof.”
Don’t get me wrong. These events are indeed significant and have real consequences. They also make for some great, sensational headlines, as I discussed earlier this month.
But what gets hardly any coverage is that China’s economy is not weakening so much as it’s changing, like Beijing’s skies. Take a look at the following two charts, courtesy of BCA Research:


When I was a lad studying economics in between bouts of playing blues guitar, surfing, and drinking fine Namibian lager, professors taught my classmates and me the origins of paper money. Like the beginners we were, we Economics 101 students trusted and believed them.



