If you think the ultimate reason the Suez Canal got blocked last week is because container ships are getting too big, get ready for the future. The next few generations of cargo vessels are going to make the Ever Given look like a bath toy.

Big enough to carry 20,124 twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEUs — the standard measure for cargo, representing a single shipping container — the Ever Given was one of the world’s largest such vessels when it was launched in 2018. The first container ship to break the 20,000 TEU mark had been at sea for less than a year. One famed 1999 study, written at a time when the largest boats carried less than 8,000 TEUs, argued it would prove impossible to build craft bigger than 18,000 TEUs.

The Ever Given, finally floating on its way again, is now distinctly in the second class of mega freighters. There are nearly 100 ships carrying more than 20,000 TEUs on the seas or under construction, and the bigger vessels being assembled in Chinese and South Korean shipyards are mostly around the 24,000 TEU mark. A quarter of the capacity moved by the world’s largest container line, AP Moller-Maersk A/S, is on boats above the 17,500 TEU mark.

That’s unlikely to be the end of it. Chinese shipyard Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding Group Co. has already registered designs for a 25,000 TEU vessel, and it has become relatively commonplace to predict that 30,000 TEU monsters will be plowing the oceans before the decade is out.

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Apple is shaking up the $400B digital ad market with a new privacy policy.

Don’t let Apple’s squeaky-clean packaging fool you: The company isn’t afraid to mix it up.

With 1B+ installed iPhones, Apple is the gateway to the mobile world’s most valuable customers.

And the $2T tech giant is about to roll out a new user-tracking policy that could cost Google and Facebook ~$25B in ad revenue.

What is changing?

As reported by The Wall Street Journal, Apple is updating its iPhone software and letting users decide if they want to be tracked for targeted ads.

The current default allows such tracking. But in weeks to come, there will be a pop-up that requires an opt-in to be tracked.

The expectation is for many users to opt-out, which will severely disrupt the $400B digital advertising industry…one that depends heavily on data tracking.

How are companies coping?

The WSJ breaks down how various industry players are preparing for the change:

• Facebook initially protested the change but recently stated that it could be stronger in the long run as it improves its in-app retail options (separately, FB will have its own phone pop-ups explaining the benefits of user tracking for targeted ads).
• Google will comply with Apple’s changes but warns that metrics looking at how ads drive app usage and sales will be less useful (it does plan to create new performance-tracking tools not dependent on individual user data).
• Big Chinese tech firms (Tencent, ByteDance) tested a workaround tracking method that Apple says it would reject from its app store.

Smaller apps may adapt by switching from free to paid.

Meanwhile, the WSJ says the tracking changes could really hurt gaming apps, which depends on targeting to find big-spending users.

Apple’s privacy angle is a winning hand…

… with consumers. However, other tech players in the ecosystem see it as Apple flexing its monopolistic might.

These changes come as Epic Games and Facebook wage corporate war against Apple’s ironclad control of the Apple App Store.

Further, a number of US states have (so far unsuccessfully) introduced legislation to change the App Store policies around installations and revenue take.

Right now, Apple’s beautiful aesthetic won’t stop people from saying it has dirty tactics.

The giant Ever Given container ship was finally pulled free from the bank of the Suez Canal, allowing for a massive tail back of ships to start navigating once again through one of the world’s most important trade routes.

Almost a week after it was stranded across the critical waterway, snarling global trade that was already under strain, salvage teams pulled the ship free from the sandy bank with tugs. Horns sounded in celebration as she made her way up the canal after an operation that involved moving 30,000 cubic meters of sand.

The ship reached the Great Bitter Lake where its hull will be inspected. Navigation on the canal for other vessels could resume soon. Container shipping company Hapag-Lloyd AG expects transit through the waterway to start Monday evening, and the backlog of vessels to be cleared within four days.

Highlights:

Ever Given reaches Great Bitter Lake Vessel is refloated and moving north toward the Bitter LakeCanal authority said navigation to resume, without setting a timeHapag-Lloyd expects traffic to start Monday evening437 vessels are waiting to transit the canal, GAC saysExplainers: Why the Suez Canal is so important, and why shipping was in a bind even before this crisis

Ever Given Reaches Great Bitter Lake (4:49 p.m. London)

The Ever Given arrived at the Great Bitter Lake, leaving traffic on the canal to start. The ship will be inspected at the lake

Romania Pushes to Prioritize Livestock Vessels (4:15 p.m. London)

Romania’s veterinary watchdog said steps are being taken to ensure ships transporting livestock receive priority in crossing the canal. Eleven vessels from the country — carrying 105,727 sheep and 1,613 cattle — are among those caught in the queue. The Suez Canal Authority and Egypt’s agriculture ministry have sent experts and veterinarians to the ships and additional food and water, it said.

Ship Moving Under Own Power (3:47 p.m. London)

https://t.co/0dC8LE0UFI pic.twitter.com/UZjcP2Mrpu

— Bloomberg Quicktake (@Quicktake) March 29, 2021

The Ever Given appeared to be moving under its own power as it made its way north along the Suez Canal to the Great Bitter Lake, where the ship’s hull will be inspected. The tugs that were initially accompanying the vessel have dropped back, according to ship tracking data monitored by Bloomberg.

Ever Given is moving at about 7 knots and should reach the anchorage at about 5:30 p.m. London time if it maintains that speed.

Suez Traffic to Start Once Ever Given at Bitter Lake (3:18 p.m. London)

The ship is expected to arrive at the Great Bitter Lake in 1 1/2 to 2 hours, and once it’s there other traffic can resume, shipping agent GAC said, citing the canal authority. Transit is expected to return to normal in three to four days, after the backlog of ships are cleared, according to the statement.

There are 193 southbound vessel waiting at Port Said, 201 northbound at Suez and another 43 are waiting at Bitter Lake, GAC said.

Ship Moving to Bitter Lake to be Inspected (3:09 p.m. London)

The Ever Given is heading to the Great Bitter Lake where it will undergo a full inspection, Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement, the ship’s technical manager, said in a statement.

Hapag-Lloyd Sees Suez Transit Starting Monday (2:50 p.m. London)

Hapag-Lloyd expect transit on the Suez canal to start later this evening, and the backlog could be cleared within four days. It’s still not clear if any vessels might be prioritized for passage, according to the container shipping company said.

Tanker Shares Slide (2:46 p.m. London)

Share prices of oil tanker companies pulled back after the blockage was cleared. Frontline Ltd. was down as much as 10% in Oslo, while Euronav NV fell as much as 4.7%. Peers including DHT Holdings Inc. and International Seaways Inc. also declined after sharp gains on Friday, when it looked like a prolonged Suez canal disruption could boost earnings as ships sail around Africa.

Ever Given Being Towed Away for Inspection (2:40 p.m. London)

A total of 11 harbor tug boats and two “powerful seagoing tugs” called the Alp Guard and Carlo Magna were deployed to free the Ever Given, Peter Berdowski, CEO of Boskalis, the parent company of the salvage team, said in a statement. About 30,000 cubic meters of sand was dredged

The vessel is now towed to a location outside the channel for further inspection, he said.

Ship Moving North Toward Bitter Lake (2:35 p.m. London)

Horns sounded in celebration as the Ever Green moved north toward Bitter Lake after being freed from the mud it was stuck in for days. Ship tracking data showed the vessel was 2 kilometers from where it was grounded.

Ship Is Pulled Free (2:12 p.m. London)

The Ever Given was finally pulled free, allowing the canal to reopen to traffic.

The vessel is now fully afloat, the Suez Canal Authority said in a statement.

Latest Attempt to Free Vessel Failed (1:05 p.m. London)

An attempt to free the Ever Given that began around 11:30 a.m. local time appears to have failed, and a person with knowledge of the matter said another attempt would be made at 3 p.m.

Once the vessel is fully refloated and navigation on the canal resumes, ships will pass through at a rate of 100 a day to clear the backlog, the person said.

Shipping Rates Jump on Lack of Capacity (12:08 p.m. London)

Vessel delays will effectively cut the available container shipping capacity on the route at a time when it’s urgently needed, said Greg Knowler, senior European editor at IHS Markit’s Journal of Commerce. Spot freight rates from China to northern Europe are up almost 400% year on year, he said.

“Even once the Ever Given is out of the way and the convoys resume, it will still take many days to clear the backlog of vessels at each end of the canal, then a week for the westbound container ships to reach ports in north Europe,” Knowler said in a note. “That could see the Suez ships arriving around the same time as the dozens of vessels rerouted around Africa.”

Ship Is Moved To and Fro to Break Suction (12 p.m. London)

Tugs are moving the stern of the ship to and fro in order to dislodge the front hull from the mud, people familiar with the operation said. The movement resembles the wiggling of a tooth, one of the people said.

Tugs to Resume Work to Pull Vessel Free (10:45 a.m. London)

Live television pictures showed several tugs roped up to the ship in the canal’s turquoise water, but it wasn’t clear if there was any movement.

Dredging is still continuing around the bow, and the tugs will subsequently resume efforts to haul the vessel free, two people familiar with the operation said.

Egypt Has Ended the Crisis, Says President (Monday, 10:30 a.m. London)

“Egyptians have today succeeded in ending the crisis of the stranded ship at the Suez Canal, despite the huge technical complication that has surrounded the process from every side,” President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi said in a statement.

Queue Could Last for Six Days, Says Maersk (Monday, 9:56 a.m. London)

“Assessing the current backlog of vessels, it could take six days or more for the complete queue to pass,” Maersk says in a statement.

Maersk and its partners have three vessels stuck in the canal and 29 waiting to enter. More are expected to reach the waterway today.

Too Early to Celebrate, Says Boskalis (Monday, 8 a.m. London):

“We need to be realistic and that is that the stem of the ship is still very much stuck,” said Peter Berdowski, CEO of Boskalis Westminster,

“Putting the rear end of the ship afloat was the easy part,” he said to Dutch NPO Radio. “The challenging part will be the front of the ship. Now, we will start working at the front. We do not want to celebrate too early.”

Ship Will be Able to Use Own Propulsion (Monday, 7:50 a.m. London)

When the Ever Given is ready to be moved, the ship will probably be able to use her own propulsion capability to sail to the Bitter Lake, said people familiar with the situation.

Euronav Says Will Take Time to Clear Queue of Ships (Monday, 7:05 a.m. London)

“It’s one thing to refloat the ship, it’s another thing to completely clear the canal of traffic,” Hugo De Stoop, CEO of oil-shipping firm Euronav, said to Bloomberg Television. “Whatever has been accumulated so far will take time to clear. Tentative timeline is probably two to three weeks, because the Suez canal was used probably at full capacity.”

Maneuvers Continue, Says Canal Authority (Monday, 6:50 a.m. London)

The ship’s been refloated and work will continue this morning around the time of high tide, the Canal Authority said.

The vessel’s course has been moved 80%, it said in a statement.

“The maneuvers are scheduled to resume again as the water level rises to its maximum height at 11:30 a.m., reaching 2 meters, allowing the ship’s course to be completely modified to the middle of the shipping course,” the authority said.

Navigation in the canal will resume once the ship is fully refloated and moved to the Great Bitter Lake area for technical checks, the authority said. The Bitter Lake is north of where the Ever Given ran aground.

Ship Partly Refloated in Dawn Rescue Effort (Monday, 4:44 a.m. London)

The giant container ship blocking the Suez Canal has been at least partially refloated, the first step toward getting one of the world’s most important trade arteries moving again.

The Ever Given was successfully refloated at about 4:30 a.m. local time in Egypt and the vessel is currently being secured, maritime services provider Inchcape Shipping Services said in an email. It followed a new attempt to dislodge the ship involving 10 tug boats, according to the Suez Canal Authority.

“I can only show you the door. You’re the one that has to walk through it.”

This morning – As Q1 wends to a close the threat of global recovery and higher rates overhang markets! Meanwhile, the market has spawned a whole new class of stocks: Trend Stocks – based on what we collectively believes about the future. Non Fungible Tokens (NFTs) look set to benefit from Trend Stock status!

And what an interesting week that was… Imminent vaccine wars, the “threat” post-pandemic economic recovery triggers rate rises thus undoing unsustainable P/E stock price multiples, and regulators seeking to regulate the vim out of the big dogs of Big Tech. Money is flowing back into cyclicals and fundamental stocks – but it seems based largely on what looks cheap to today’s already grossly inflated market. If it all looks like the ingredients for a corrective burst – well who knows?

There are a couple of victims out there. I feel most sorry for AstraZeneca and Oxford University – despite all their good intentions to produce a fast vaccine at zero profit and get it out there, they are on everyone’s solids list. The Europeans are using them as the sacrificial lamb for their botched rollout, and the Americans are being all high & mighty about numbers – although the good Dr Fauci did say “It’s still a very good vaccine.” I got the AZ jab and I ain’t dead yet. Good on them!

Pity the pilot and captain of the container ship Ever Given. How embarrassing. How dangerous to the global economy?

Next week will be slow ahead of the Easter Break and quarter-end. There is a deal of account balancing underway, so we may yet see some moves. It might be an opportunity to take stock of where markets are.

What’s going to happen in Q2?

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