When the economy goes into a downturn, even a plain-vanilla recession or near-recession and not a crisis, junk bonds behave badly. This is because over-indebted companies with iffy cash flows – those are the ones that are junk rated – begin to buckle….CLICK for complete article
I’m not going to use the R-word here. All I’m going to say is that it might be time for investors to brace for a significant correction—especially with debt at record levels and the Federal Reserve left with very little firepower to combat a full-blown crisis….CLICK for complete article
When Statistics Canada publishes the Labour Force Survey early each month, the number that makes the headlines is the net change in employment, or maybe the jobless rate.
Stephen Poloz, the Bank of Canada governor, probably only glances at those figures. He’s interested in more granular elements of the report. For example, as an audience in Moncton heard on Sept. 27, the youth participation rate is an indicator he watches “particularly closely.” You never see…Click here for full article.
China’s exports are down, and imports are down even further, which translates into a trade surplus for Beijing that could set Trump on an even more aggressive warpath.
With year-end 2018 data now in, China ended up with a $324-billion trade surplus with the U.S.—a trade surplus that is over 25 percent bigger than it was prior to Trump’s ascension to the throne in Washington, DC.
And that’s even with Chinese exports down. Based on Chinese data analyzed by the BBC, exports from China dropped 4.4 percent in December, compared to the previous year, and imports also fell 7.6 percent…..CLICK for complete article
In the clearest indication yet of just how severe the recent spike in Italian yields has been on the country’s financial institutions, Italy’s largest bank, UniCredit, surprised the market today when it sold $3 billion in dollar denominated five-year bonds. To find a willing buyer, the bank had to pay the equivalent of 420 basis points over the euro swap rate, which is six times more than the 70 bps over swaps it paid on five-year euro senior non-preferred bonds just this past January…. CLICK for complete article
No, Make That – Something “Historical” Is Happening
I’m sure you’re busy. I certainly am given all that’s going on in the economy and markets but I think items like Angela Merkel stepping down – the rise in interest rates – the Turkish bond crisis, which pushed 10 year borrowing rates from 10% to 22% in just 12 month – along with the devastation in emerging markets like Brazil and Argentina merit our attention.
More to the point – our financial well being rests on understanding what’s driving these events, yet few people seem to. And by the way – while I appreciate there are a ton of opinions and analysis out there, the only way to evaluate and judge whether one approach or model is better than another is the examine the track record. And on that score I don’t know a better one than what we’ve produced at the World Outlook Financial Conference. We unequivocally forecast the record bull market run since March, 2009 – and we haven’t changed our long term view despite the fact that at the last World Outlook Conference in early February we correctly predicted that market opportunities had shifted.
We went from a “buy the indexes” because everything is going up to a “stock pickers” market because 2018 would be choppy with very little overall progress. And here we are over 10 months later and the major indexes are basically flat while our individual recommendations of companies like Canopy Growth, Aurora, Netflix, Viemed, Boyd Group, Photon Control and others registered double digit gains – much more in some cases.
In February, 2017 we clearly stated that the bull market in bonds was over and that interest rates were about to rise. At this year’s conference we’ll forecast how far they might go. Just locking in your mortgage when we told you to would have paid for the price of a ticket many times over.
That’s what I love about investment markets. You don’t have to be good looking and charming – you just have to get it right. In the end there’s no BS, no stories, no excuses – just results.
Making money and protecting you from losses is the goal of the conference, and I’m very pleased with the results. For anyone who acted on the specific advice, the $149 ticket was probably the best investment they made last year.
Here’s A Bit of A Shock
What’s about to happen is going to make the last five years seem tame. My goal is to make sure you are protected and profit financially. Unfortunately the vast majority of people won’t be. Just look at the beginning of the unworkable pension mess in Dallas, Chicago and Puerto Rico. Consider that Illinois’ pension liability is now 280% of its entire annual tax revenues. This is not going to end well.
I don’t think it will in Europe either. One of the main themes at the Conference and on MoneyTalks has been that we are witnessing the historic demise of the European Union – and the implications for stocks, bonds, currencies and precious metals is huge. The next year will be pivotal. Brexit will take place. Italy and the EU will have to come to an agreement on a “no win” Italian budget deal that will either signal the end of the EU’s agreement on debt financing or Italy will leave.
By next week, we’ll have the results of the mid-term elections in the US, which depending on the outcome could derail the Trump tax reductions, which have played a big role in pushing the US stock markets and dollar higher. Or if the Republican’s win we could see even more tax reductions introduced. If the Democrats win there could be massive uncertainty talking about impeachment for the next two years. Who knows, but the markets will be impacted no matter what the outcome.
The world is changing in dramatic fashion. The increased volatility is going to intensify. The World Outlook Financial Conference track record speaks for itself. Our official World Outlook Small Cap portfolio has delivered double digit returns every year. We can help you navigate those changes and the volatility.
To sum it up – this is my long winded way of saying I hope I see you at our 30th annual Conference along with speakers like Martin Armstrong, Ryan Irvine, John Johnston and Josef Schachter to name just a few.
Then again, maybe you’re not interested – and believe me I get that. Maybe you already are on top of things. Maybe there’s something good on TV. I have no idea. All I know is that periods of historic change provide incredible opportunities and incredible danger.
All I’m trying to do is help you avoid the danger part and take advantage of the opportunities.
The 2019 World Outlook Financial Conference is Friday, Feb 1st and Saturday, Feb 2nd at the Westin Bayshore Conference Centre in Vancouver. For tickets and other details CLICK HERE.
I hope to see you there.
PS Check our the list of “extras” with our VIP tickets – and the EARLY BIRD prices for the next two weeks!
- Breakfast and lunch with bonus speakers and presentations
- Reserved seating
- VIP Investment Kit
- and more…
As you may know I am hugely interested in educating our younger generation and to that end we have a special offer – if you buy a ticket – you can bring a student absolutely free. The only thing is that we ask you to let us know that you want a student ticket when you purchase your ticket. We have a limited number set aside and we want to be able to accommodate you.