I have been told the feedback from “The MoneyTalks Allstar Trading Super Summit” in Vancouver on October 24 was excellent and my presentation very popular.

A the video of the conference is now available for purchase. A special promotion code has been created for VRtrader.com clients. Using this code you can get a 50% discount on the $117 price. The StockScores promotion code is – S2009ML

Folks just go to www.moneytalks.net , Click on the Banner box titled “The MoneyTalks Allstar Trading Super Summit Video“. This will take them to the shopping cart where the process is pretty straightforward.

Make sure to enter my promotion code and Click GET DISCOUNT

Enjoy!

GOLD and METALS – ACTION ALERT (morning Nov 6th)

Precious metals struggled yesterday, as a stronger dollar encouraged profit taking. Gold was down 2.40 at 1089.50. Silver was down .05 at 17.29, platinum was down 10.00 at 1355.00 and palladium was up 1.00 at 329.00. Technically, Gold should retrace back to 1071. Big support is way under the market at 1025. Shares have been diverging negatively, i.e., not posting new highs along with the underlying metal. We’ve already seen Gold move rally despite a rally in the US Dollar, but I suspect a significant bounce in the Dollar (e.g., into the low 80s) would still have a negative impact.

Bottom line: I see the divergences and the potential negatives, but I remain on my ‘Buy’ signal as momentum and basic trend analysis clearly shows a bull market.

Investing Goals And Expectations

A well-known stock market expert once said “There may be as many different investment goals as there are investors”. In fact, that is one of the most difficult obstacles for inexperienced traders to overcome when they begin to invest.

Most experts say that a combination of investments will provide the best balance of risk and reward in a long-term portfolio. A diverse group of ‘buy and hold’ issues is a good foundation for any novice investor and a qualifying retirement account can help defer taxes. Those who need current income can choose from a vast number of dividend paying securities, many of which also have an excellent record of share price growth. Investors who choose to avoid certain types of business activity (based on ethical or financial principles) can still find numerous value-based stocks that meet their investment objectives. Those who wish to achieve the same performance as an industry or sector can purchase mutual funds and diamonds that mirror a specific group of stocks. More aggressive traders can apply value investing principles to blue chip issues; buying stocks that are undervalued and selling those that are overvalued. As a portfolio matures, investors can also diversify into bonds or treasury instruments to benefit from market and interest rates fluctuations.

While strategy is important, it is also imperative to approach investment activities with the right attitude and expectations. Trying to achieve too much from a portfolio can put the account in the red quickly (greed can lead to terrible decisions), and accepting returns that barely surpass current inflation rates will prevent a portfolio from growing. While most investors who make the effort to learn about the stock market are not satisfied to achieve the same return as the Dow or the S&P 500, others will actively seek mediocrity. Just look at the number of index funds that are sold to investors who then are relegated to losing what the market loses and gaining no more than what the market gains.

So how do you determine a reasonable expectation? Most investors who participate in historically profitable strategies will easily average 15%-20% return on an annual basis. In the long-term, 10% a year is the typical return for broad market stocks in general. In comparison to a rigid investing plan, the Dow’s performance is just what it’s described as; average, and yet Warren Buffett made his fortune (Berkshire Hathaway is worth over a billion dollars), by focusing on a mere 15% annual return on assets. His primary goal however, was to maintain a substantial margin of safety in all of the portfolio’s holdings.

Charles Dow may have said it best, “The man who is prudent and careful in carrying on a store, factory or real estate business seems to think that totally different methods should be employed in dealing with stocks. Nothing could be further from the truth.”

Marks VRTrader Silver Newletter covers Stock, TSE Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Base Metals, Uranium, Oil and the US Dollar.

More kudos – Mark Leibovit was named the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 10 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 3 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 8 year period ending in 2007; and the #8 Intermediate Market Timer for the 5 year period ending in 2007. NO OTHER ANALYST SURVEYED APPEARED IN ALL FOUR CATEGORIES FOR INTERMEDIATE MARKET TIMING AS PUBLISHED IN TIMER DIGEST JANUARY 28, 2008!
For a trial Subscription of The VR Silver Newsletter covering Stocks, Bonds, Gold, US Dollar, Oil CLICK HERE

The VR Gold Letter is available to Platinum subscribers for only an additional $20 per month, while for Silver subscribers the price is only an additional $70.00 per month. Prices are going up very shortl, so act now! Separately, the VR Gold Letter retails for $1500 a year! The VR Gold Letter is published WEEKLY. It is 10 to 16 pages jam-packed with commentary and charts. Please call or email us right away. Tel: 928-282-1275. Email: mark.vrtrader@gmail.com .

The Glide Path Option

In this Issue:

The Present Contains All Possible Futures
The Ugly Unemployment Numbers
Argentinian Disease
The Austrian Solution
The Eastern European Solution
Japanese Disease
The Glide Path Option
Philadelphia, Orlando, and Phoenix

…read the whole thing HERE.

I have been told the feedback from “The MoneyTalks Allstar Trading Super Summit” in Vancouver on October 24 was excellent and my presentation very popular.

A the video of the conference is now available for purchase. A special promotion code has been created for VRtrader.com clients. Using this code you can get a 50% discount on the $117 price. The StockScores promotion code is – S2009ML

Folks just go to www.moneytalks.net , Click on the Banner box titled “The MoneyTalks Allstar Trading Super Summit Video“. This will take them to the shopping cart where the process is pretty straightforward.

Make sure to enter my promotion code and Click GET DISCOUNT

Enjoy!

GOLD and METALS – ACTION ALERT (morning Nov 6th)

Precious metals struggled yesterday, as a stronger dollar encouraged profit taking. Gold was down 2.40 at 1089.50. Silver was down .05 at 17.29, platinum was down 10.00 at 1355.00 and palladium was up 1.00 at 329.00. Technically, Gold should retrace back to 1071. Big support is way under the market at 1025. Shares have been diverging negatively, i.e., not posting new highs along with the underlying metal. We’ve already seen Gold move rally despite a rally in the US Dollar, but I suspect a significant bounce in the Dollar (e.g., into the low 80s) would still have a negative impact.

Bottom line: I see the divergences and the potential negatives, but I remain on my ‘Buy’ signal as momentum and basic trend analysis clearly shows a bull market.

Investing Goals And Expectations

A well-known stock market expert once said “There may be as many different investment goals as there are investors”. In fact, that is one of the most difficult obstacles for inexperienced traders to overcome when they begin to invest.

Most experts say that a combination of investments will provide the best balance of risk and reward in a long-term portfolio. A diverse group of ‘buy and hold’ issues is a good foundation for any novice investor and a qualifying retirement account can help defer taxes. Those who need current income can choose from a vast number of dividend paying securities, many of which also have an excellent record of share price growth. Investors who choose to avoid certain types of business activity (based on ethical or financial principles) can still find numerous value-based stocks that meet their investment objectives. Those who wish to achieve the same performance as an industry or sector can purchase mutual funds and diamonds that mirror a specific group of stocks. More aggressive traders can apply value investing principles to blue chip issues; buying stocks that are undervalued and selling those that are overvalued. As a portfolio matures, investors can also diversify into bonds or treasury instruments to benefit from market and interest rates fluctuations.

While strategy is important, it is also imperative to approach investment activities with the right attitude and expectations. Trying to achieve too much from a portfolio can put the account in the red quickly (greed can lead to terrible decisions), and accepting returns that barely surpass current inflation rates will prevent a portfolio from growing. While most investors who make the effort to learn about the stock market are not satisfied to achieve the same return as the Dow or the S&P 500, others will actively seek mediocrity. Just look at the number of index funds that are sold to investors who then are relegated to losing what the market loses and gaining no more than what the market gains.

So how do you determine a reasonable expectation? Most investors who participate in historically profitable strategies will easily average 15%-20% return on an annual basis. In the long-term, 10% a year is the typical return for broad market stocks in general. In comparison to a rigid investing plan, the Dow’s performance is just what it’s described as; average, and yet Warren Buffett made his fortune (Berkshire Hathaway is worth over a billion dollars), by focusing on a mere 15% annual return on assets. His primary goal however, was to maintain a substantial margin of safety in all of the portfolio’s holdings.

Charles Dow may have said it best, “The man who is prudent and careful in carrying on a store, factory or real estate business seems to think that totally different methods should be employed in dealing with stocks. Nothing could be further from the truth.”

Marks VRTrader Silver Newletter covers Stock, TSE Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Base Metals, Uranium, Oil and the US Dollar.

More kudos – Mark Leibovit was named the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 10 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 3 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 8 year period ending in 2007; and the #8 Intermediate Market Timer for the 5 year period ending in 2007. NO OTHER ANALYST SURVEYED APPEARED IN ALL FOUR CATEGORIES FOR INTERMEDIATE MARKET TIMING AS PUBLISHED IN TIMER DIGEST JANUARY 28, 2008!
For a trial Subscription of The VR Silver Newsletter covering Stocks, Bonds, Gold, US Dollar, Oil CLICK HERE

The VR Gold Letter is available to Platinum subscribers for only an additional $20 per month, while for Silver subscribers the price is only an additional $70.00 per month. Prices are going up very shortl, so act now! Separately, the VR Gold Letter retails for $1500 a year! The VR Gold Letter is published WEEKLY. It is 10 to 16 pages jam-packed with commentary and charts. Please call or email us right away. Tel: 928-282-1275. Email: mark.vrtrader@gmail.com .

Painful Adjustments to the “New Normal” Economy

Beunos Aires, Argentina – We left our Crash Alert flag up while we were away in the mountains. And for a while last week it looked like we were geniuses. Stocks seemed like they were going to crash.

But along came two very important bits of information.

First, we got word that the crisis was officially over. GDP grew last quarter. Thanks to all the Cash for Clunkers, Cash for Bankers, Cash for Houses, Cash for Trash, and cash for every other blessed thing under heaven, the number crunchers were able to report positive economic growth for the third quarter.

Let’s not get too excited. Stocks bounce. Bonds bounce. An economy bounces. Even dead economists bounce. And if we’re following the Japanese experience, with a long, slow on-again/off-again period of depression, we can expect some quarters of growth, followed by quarters of non-growth. It’s going to be a painful adjustment to the ‘new normal,’ whatever that is.

The other important bit of news was that the Fed – faced with undeniable evidence of growth and prosperity – decided to err on the side of caution. It will keep monetary policy loose from here until kingdom come, if necessary, in order to avoid a Japan-style slump.

But so far, a Japan-style slump is just what we seem to have…and our public officials are fighting it, Japan-style.

Unemployment is headed up. The U6 figure – a more accurate picture of how many people are out of work – is up to 17%. There are 1.5 million homeless children in the US now, including 300,000 in the state of California alone. One out of 10 Americans will not bite the hand of government – for it is the hand that gives him his food stamps.

Foreign direct investment has dropped 30%. International trade is down 10%.

Do you call this a recovery? We don’t.

As David Rosenberg puts it, the man on the street is perhaps “less enthused by the fact that a lower rate of inventory de-stocking is arithmetically underpinning GDP growth at this time.”

In other words, it’s ‘growth’ that only an economist could love…and then, only an economist who was an idiot. Rosenberg:

“Put simply, a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll just found that 58% of the public believe the economic recession still has a ways to go – and that is up from 52% in September and means that the private investor, unlike the hedge fund manager, is not interested in adding risk to the portfolio even after a 60% surge in the equity market.

“Only 29% of those polled believe the economy has hit bottom – imagine having that psychology with nearly zero interest rates, a bloated Fed balance sheet and unprecedented fiscal deficits (poll was taken from October 23-25). Nearly two in three (64%) said the rally in the stock market (still a bear market rally – not the onset of a new bull market) has not swayed their view (or ours for that matter). There is going to be some very tough slogging ahead as far as the economy is concerned.”

Growth is largely illusional. It is the result of delusional policy-making at the Fed.

So, we’ll just keep our Crash Alert flag flying.

Meanwhile, gold hit a new record high yesterday. It’s at $1,089. More on gold, below.

The Dow went up too – 203 points yesterday. It’s over 10,000 again. Not very impressive for a bear market bounce. A 50% retracement would take the Dow to 10,300.

But you have to give the bounce credit. It’s been going on since March. That is impressive.

And now everyone is bullish, except us. We’ll see who’s right… in the fullness of time…

Gold seems to be advancing towards a new milestone – $1,100. Makes us nervous. We always feel more comfortable out in the wide, open spaces…that is to say, in trades we have all to ourselves.

But gold is still a marginal holding by marginal investors – like us. Central banks – especially those in emerging countries – have very little gold. The man on the street doesn’t know anything about gold. He wouldn’t know a gold coin if it hit him on the head.

As gold becomes accepted as a true store of value, we can expect more and more people to want to own it.

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning

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Since founding Agora Inc. in 1979, Bill Bonner has found success and garnered camaraderie in numerous communities and industries. A man of many talents, his entrepreneurial savvy, unique writings, philanthropic undertakings, and preservationist activities have all been recognized and awarded by some of America’s most respected authorities. Along with Addison Wiggin, his friend and colleague, Bill has written two New York Times best-selling books, Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt. Both works have been critically acclaimed and internationally. With political journalist Lila Rajiva, he wrote his third New York Times best-selling book, Mobs, Messiahs and Markets, which offers concrete advice on how to avoid the public spectacle of modern finance. Since 1999, Bill has been a daily contributor and the driving force behind The Daily.