Wealth Building Strategies

P.T. Barnum’s Three Tips for Building Wealth

pt-barnumP. T. Barnum (1810 – 1891) was an American showman, businessman, and entertainer, who founded what became the Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey Circus. He became a very wealthy man and he shares some advice on how to acquire wealth in his book “The Art Of Money Getting”. Here are three of the tips he shares in his book:

Be Frugal

“Wear the old clothes a little longer if necessary; dispense with the new pair of gloves; mend the old dress, live on plainer food if need be; so that, under all circumstances, unless some unforeseen accident occurs, there will be a margin in favor of the income. A penny here, and a dollar there, placed at interest, goes on accumulating, and in this way the desired result is attained.”

Choose Work You Enjoy

“The safest plan, and the one most sure of success for the young man starting in life, is to select the vocation which is most congenial to his tastes . . . We are all, no doubt, born for a wise purpose . . . Unless a man enters upon the vocation intended for him by nature, and best suited to his peculiar genius, he cannot succeed.”

Be Cautious and Bold

“Among the maxims of the elder Rothschild was one, all apparent paradox: ‘Be cautious and bold’. This seems to be a contradiction in terms, but it is not, and there is great wisdom in the maxim. It is, in fact, a condensed statement of what I have already said. It is to say: ‘you must exercise your caution in laying your plans, but be bold in carrying them out.’ A man who is all caution, will never dare to take hold and be successful; and a man who is all boldness, is merely reckless and will eventually fail.”

…related: Seven Essential Ways to Build Wealth

NOTHING is certain or guaranteed in Markets…. ever. Anyone who tells you otherwise is a charlatan.

That said, within Bressert’s Cycle framework the norm is that a new Intermediate Cycle in any asset should test or breach the Intermediate Cycle downtrend before topping and those are my expectations based on my current analysis on both Gold and the USD.

With that as background, my Gold chart shows these expectations.

  • Will Gold test or breach the Yearly Cycle downtrend line on my chart? The high probability answer based on cycle norms is yes.
  • Will gold breach this line and turn back down or move up and make a higher high than 2016 before topping in this Intermediate Cycle? Really? If I had that level of clairvoyance, I would never have a losing trade… smile
  • Cycle analysis combined with standard TA is all about developing a trading framework based on probabilities. Sorry, but I am no magician but playing the probabilities has worked out nicely for me. Cut your losers quickly and let your winners run.

An Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) is the best time to buy any asset given that you sold near the top and have capital to deploy along with the mental courage to pull the trigger at the low. Most Traders buy near highs and sell in despair near ICLs. Cycle analysis is the tool we need to understand bearish investor sentiment at market lows in order to have the courage to buy at those cycle lows when most are selling in panic.

“When your Yelling, you should be Selling and when you are Crying, you should be Buying.” That is, in essence, what this service is all about if you stick with me (…last year was my best trading year ever). My goal is to be buying when there is blood in the streets. Will you have the courage to follow?

So this is one reason I kept the recent Gold position additions in GDX and AGQ rather small as we are already 1.5 months into a new Intermediate Cycle and the miners are already up over 34%. This is NOT your best entry point. Ok, enough posturing and onto the Chart.

Gold is bouncing along above the 10ema and should move higher out of a Half Cycle Low if my analysis is correct. My plan is to take profits when I see signs of topping, probably up near the 1250 to 1260 level where I expect Trading Cycle #2 to top out. Out of the TC2 low, will TC3 make a higher high? It may well be possible but Time will tell…

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….related: 

Is the Gold Silver Ratio Predictive?

 

About Surf City

Surf City is 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California.  He has been an active investor and trader since the mid-1980s. Analytical by nature, his sound investments over the years allowed him to retire at a relatively early age of 55.

In addition to the standard Technical Analysis tools of Edwards and Magee, Surf is a disciple of Walter Bressert’s Cycle Methodology and Stan Weinstein’s Stage 4 Market annalysis. Surf combines these skills to develop his unique “Cycle Price Channels.” Some call them “Surf’s ForkCycles.”

In addition to Bressert, Surf also utilizes the Gann expertise of his colleague, Norvast to collaborate on possible turn dates. The combination of Bressert and Gann Cycle methodologies along with Surf’s Price Channels allow the Subscribers to “Visualize” where Surf feels price is likely heading, topping or bottoming.

Surf is also an avid teacher and mentor who enjoys helping others learn the tools of the trade.

Surf’s Up, Ride the Wave!

Copyright; © 2017 Surf City

The most successful investment strategy in the world

2017 02 10 featured imageEducation is a BIG part of a having a Plan B… especially when it comes to money.

In light of the obvious risks that we discuss on a regular basis, safeguarding (and growing) our savings is absolutely critical.

Finance can be a little bit scary and seem quite complicated at first.

No one comes out of the womb a financial expert. And they certainly don’t teach this stuff in a government-controlled public school system.

But just like speaking a foreign language or learning to drive, knowing how to properly manage money is a SKILL.

And it’s one that can be learned. By ANYONE.

The difference between knowing versus NOT knowing how to manage money can have an EXTRAORDINARY impact on your life.

Simply being able to generate an extra 1% to 2% annual return on your investments can add up to hundreds of thousands of dollars in extra wealth over 20-30 years.

As with any other skill, learning about finance takes some time and patience. But the reward is extraordinary.

I wanted to pass along an email today that highlights key characteristics of the world’s most successful long-term investment strategy.

It was written by my friend and colleague Tim Price, a UK-based wealth manager who is a disciplined master of “value investing”.

This strategy is absolutely worth understanding. Learning it can truly have an enormous impact on your life.

— From Tim: —

Successful investing involves having an edge.

And if you do not know what your edge is, you do not have one.

So which investment strategy actually works?

…continue reading HERE

15 Words of Wisdom on Finding an Edge

wisdom-002Listen to advice and accept instruction, that you may gain wisdom in the future. – Proverbs 19:

One thing I would like to add is that not all advice is good advice, so it’s vital to filter out the noise from the facts. One of the easiest ways is to follow, listen and learn from people who have or are walking the successful path.

Finding an edge is something that we all want.

Investing is a zero sum game so when you are buying, there is a person on the other end who is selling.

How do you know that you’re correct?

By listening to wise counsel.

The path forward is never clear, but with the advice and guidance by value investing greats, it makes is easier to march forward.

Take these words of wisdom on finding an edge from people considered masters in value investing.

(Courtesy of Value Investor Insight)

Human beings are subject to wild swings in their levels of fear, risk tolerance and greed. That won’t change. I base my whole approach on buying when others are fearful and selling when others are greedy. The reason Shakespeare is so relevant still today is that his plays were all about human nature, and human nature never changes.

– Mark Sellers

…continue reading 13 more “Words of Wisdom” HERE

…also:

17 Managed Funds That Have Beaten the Indexes Over a 17 Year Period

 

 

Portfolio Strategy And The Iron Laws

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A few weeks ago, we observed the single most extreme syndrome of “overvalued, overbought, overbullish” conditions we identify (see Speculative Extremes and Historically Informed Optimism) at a level on the S&P 500 4% higher than the syndrome we observed in July. The S&P 500 has climbed about 1.5% further since then, and all of the features of this syndrome remain in place.

As I noted in December, except for a set of signals in late-2013 and early-2014 (when market internals remained uniformly favorable as a result of Fed-induced yield-seeking speculation), an overextended syndrome this extreme has only emerged at the market peaks preceding the worst collapses in the past century.

….continue reading HERE