In my last video a couple weeks ago, I evaluated how our most recent COT signals were performing at that time. When recorded that video, here’s what the results were…

Total open winners: 26 of 38 markets = 68% winners
Total with the trend: 15 of 20 markets = 75% winners
Total against the trend: 61% winners

(A very hypothetical test)

In this new video, I update you on the projections and performance of these signals for the major commodities and show you the hypothetical open profits on the same signals.

Watch the new video here
www.bullishreview.com/content/2013/12/13-12-02-Video6-02-IH.php

2ND CHANCE TO SUBSCRIBE TO BULLISH REVIEW

About 1 year ago, I completely revamped the indicators I use in my
analysis. Prior to the mid 2000’s, the positions held by swap dealers
(Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citibank and JP Morgan) did not have
a significant impact on the overall markets. Over the past few years
we’ve seen a change in this, and I adjusted my analysis accordingly.

Fast forward 6 months to the summer of 2013… I had a breakthrough
idea which turned out to be an epiphany.  I have spent the last six
months implementing a series of new tools into my analysis.  

While the first set of changes were a dramatic improvement in the
content subscribers receive, this new set of changes has completely
changed the face of COT analysis. If you haven’t seen the webinar
where I explain the new tools I’ve implemented, I strongly recommend
you view it asap.

In this brief video I reopen the exclusive discounted subscription
offer we closed a few weeks ago. If you believe Bullish Review
provides you with unique, accurate information you cannot find
anywhere else, then take this opportunity to watch the new video, and
order your subscription.

Subscribe to Bullish Review here >>
www.bullishreview.com/content/2013/11/13-11-13-Offer-Details-02-IH.php

NOTICE: The 2nd chance to order the discounted enrollment package
including Bullish Review, Saturday Sector and the bonuses is will
only be open for 36 hours.  I believe this video, along with the
others in this series provide you with enough information to make a
buying decision.

Watch the Steve’s new video and subscribe now >>
www.bullishreview.com/content/2013/12/13-12-02-Video6-02-IH.php

Best regards,

Steve Briese
Editor, Bullish Review
Insider Capital Group

______________________________________________________________________

Click to view this email in a browser
http://hosted.verticalresponse.com/273532/3cc3b7958b/1760727119/66b465eaeb/

If you no longer wish to receive these emails, please reply to this
message with “Stop receiving mail” in the subject line or simply
click on the following link: 

http://cts.vresp.com/u?3cc3b7958b/66b465eaeb/mlpftw

______________________________________________________________________
This message was sent by Steve Briese using VerticalResponse

Insider Capital Group
362 Gulf Breeze Pkwy
Gulf Breeze, Florida 32561
US

Read the VerticalResponse marketing policy: 
http://www.verticalresponse.com/content/pm_policy.html

What is an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)?

Exchange Traded Funds or ETFs operate very much like mutual funds except that instead of taking in capital and issuing redemptions on a daily basis they are closed end which means they trade like a stock and are bought and sold on a normal stock exchange. ETFs can be actively or passively managed. They come in all types and at all risk levels. For our purposes, we are going to focus on passively managed indexed ETFs as a means of tracking the performance of a market, style or industry index.

How to Use ETFs?

Our discussion on ETFs will center on using them to create a passively managed segment of your portfolio. The purpose of the indexed ETF is that it tracks a particular index. For example, if you wanted to allocate 10% of a $100,000 portfolio to the TSX Composite index, then you could purchase $10,000 worth of units in an ETF like the S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index Fund which bears the trading symbol XIC. A quick look through iShares.com and you will quickly see that you have access to a wide range of indexed ETFs for virtually every industry in the Canadian market, U.S. based and global equities, as well as style funds, such as the Dividend Aristocrats Index. The same products are also available from other ETF providers such as www.claymoreinvestments.com and www.vanguardcanada.ca as well as all of the major banks.

Passive Mutual Funds (Index Funds) versus ETFs

Although most mutual funds are actively managed, there is a certain class, indexed mutual funds, which provides the same type of passive stock market exposure as indexed ETFs. The difference between the two types of instruments is the structure. Indexed mutual funds are open end funds and receive contributions and redemptions on a daily basis. The fund itself manages these transactions and issues new fund units or redeems existing units for cash based on the daily calculated net asset value (NAV).

ETFs are closed end funds and maintain a consistent number of units which trade on an exchange like a regular stock. The ETF itself does not deal with contributions or redemptions on a daily basis. Just like with a stock, when you want to acquire units you buy them on an exchange and when you want to redeem you sell them on the exchange…the ETF itself doesn’t have anything to do with these transactions.

There is no clear answer for which is better – indexed funds or indexed ETFs. The open ended structure of the indexed mutual fund does require the fund to maintain a higher ongoing cash balance to ensure they can honour daily redemptions. This can create a “cash drag” as not all capital is fully invested and earning a return. ETFs don’t have to deal with daily redemptions and therefore don’t need to carry as much cash. Another interesting characteristic of ETFs is the ‘in kind’ redemption feature which provides tax deferral for unit holders. When an index fund sells stock to fulfill redemption requests, the capital gain tax liability is spread amongst the unit holders, regardless of whether or not they are redeeming. Investors in ETFs can realize return by either selling their units on the open market or by exercising the ‘in kind’ redemption, whereby they would receive a basket of securities proportional to their fractional interest of the securities owned by the ETF. For the “in kind” redemption, no tax liability is incurred unless sales from the basket of securities are made.

Understanding Discounts and Premiums

Another thing worth knowing is that because ETFs trade on an exchange, the price is determined by supply and demand and at times, ETF units can trade at a premium or a discount to their net asset value. Normally, this isn’t too much of a concern as discounts and premiums tend to be very marginal. However, it is worth noting whether you are paying a discount or a premium on the ETF when you purchase it. In general, indexed ETFs should trade at a very modest discount to their NAV.

Indexed Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs) can be highly efficient vehicles through which investors are able to purchase diversified exposure to an entire market index, sector, or geographic region. Benefits include a competitive fee structure, simplicity of trading, tax advantages over indexed mutual funds, and unique features such as in kind redemption. However, ETFs come in all types and risk levels and it is important that investors much understand the type of investment they are purchasing. We advocate the appropriate use of non-leveraged ETFs that are indexed to diversified indices, but warn investors against more exotic ETFs such as those that use leverage or are tied to the performance of commodities or other risky assets. 

KeyStone’s Latest Reports Section

11/28/2013
EXTRUSION & AUTOMOTIVE MANUFACTURER REPORTS SOLID Q4 2013, LONG-TERM OUTLOOK REMAINS POSITIVE, STRONG BALANCE SHEET LEADS TO POTENTIAL ACQUISITION – BUY RATING MAINTAINED

11/27/2013
RETAIL – WIRELESS DEVICES COMPANY RELEASES THIRD QUARTER RESULTS – 3 YEAR INVESTMENT OUTLOOK REMAINS POSITIVE BUT RATING SHIFTED TO HOLD AS WE LOOK FOR NEAR TERM TURNAROUND

11/21/2013
UNDERFOLLOWED INTERNATIONAL/CANADIAN ENERGY SERVICE STOCK POSTS SOLID Q3, STRONG 5.4% DIVIDEND WITH SOLID BALANCE SHEET ($0.44 PER SHARE NET CASH), NEAR-TERM MODERATE, LONG-TERM POSITIVE – BUY RATING MAINTAINED

11/20/2013
JUNIOR LIGHT OIL PRODUCER TRADING AT 2.5X CURRENT CASH FLOW, POSTS STRONG Q3 CASH FLOW, VALUATION REMAINS ATTRACTIVE – MAINTAIN RATING

11/19/2013
ENERGY & INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICE STOCK POSTS STRONG Q3 GROWTH AS ACCRETION FROM RECENT ACQUISITIONS BEGINS TO KICK IN – POSITIONED FOR NEAR-TERM GROWTH – MAINTAIN BUY RATING

Regards,

Jenny McConnell,

Administrative Assistant/Office Manager

This week I am preparing to write our annual Outlook and Forecast for 2014 which is an annual attempt to make a “wild @$$ guess” about the future based on what we can glean from historical statistics. However, while it is an exercise in data analysis, logic and educated guesses – the reality is that is not so far removed from Tarot cards, crystal balls and palm reading.  

However, the amount of research required takes an exorbitant amount of time which means that this week’s newsletter will be a little more concise than usual.

Since there was no newsletter over the Thanksgiving weekend I want to take a moment to remind you of what I said two weeks ago as it is relevant to today’s topic.

“The discussion of both parabolic markets, and trend analysis, are keys to the overall understanding of why the markets could rise to 2300. The chart [on the next page] shows the current bullish trend(s) of the market since the lows of 2009.

As you will notice the market is currently pushing into the resistance of the original bullish trend line that begins in 2009. The break of that trend line in 2011 has now turned the trend line from support into resistance. 

However, as shown by the red dashed line, the current bullish trend has begun to accelerate from the trend that begin post the 2011 debt ceiling debate. IF this market is going to accelerate higher from current levels it will be important that it either breaks out above 1800 on a sustained basis OR the market pulls back to 1700 and holds support at the current bullish trend line.

The PRIMARY ISSUE here is that there is NO valuation argument that currently supports asset prices at current levels.

>> Read More. Download This Weeks Issue Here.

Commentary: Pay attention to the signals

Crowd of people gather outside the New York Stock Exchange following the Crash of 1929

They say those who forget the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them.

As a student of market history, I’ve seen that maxim made true time and again. The cycle swings fear back to greed. The overcautious become the overzealous. And at the top, the story is always the same: Too much credit, too much speculation, the suspension of disbelief, and the spread of the idea that this time is different.

It doesn’t matter whether it was the expansion of railroads heading into the crash of 1893 or the excitement over the consolidation of the steel industry in 1901 or the mixing of speculation and banking heading into 1907. Or whether it involves an epic expansion of mortgage credit, IPO activity, or central-bank stimulus. What can’t continue forever ultimately won’t.

The weaknesses of the human heart and mind means the swings will always exist. Our rudimentary understanding of the forces of economics, which in turn, reflect ultimately reflect the fallacies of people making investing, purchasing, and saving decisions, means policymakers will never defeat the vagaries of the business cycle.

So no, this time isn’t different. The specifics may have changed, but the themes remain the same. Read Mark Hulbert’s take: The chart that’s scaring Wall Street.

In fact, the stock market is right now tracing out a pattern eerily similar to the lead up to the infamous 1929 market crash. The pattern, illustrated by Tom McClellan of the McClellan Market Report, and brought to his attention by well-known chart diviner Tom Demark, is shown below.

Excuse me for throwing some cold water on the fever dream Wall Street has descended into over the last few months, an apparent climax that has bullish sentiment at record highs, margin debt at record highs, bears capitulating left and right, and a market that is increasingly dependent on brokerage credit, Federal Reserve stimulus, and a fantasy that corporate profitability will never again come under pressure.

On a pure price-analogue basis, it’s time to start worrying.

Fundamentally, it’s time to start worrying too. With GDP growth petering out (Macroeconomic Advisors is projecting fourth-quarter growth of just 1.2%), Americans abandoning the labor force at a frightening pace, businesses still withholding capital spending, and personal-consumption expenditures growing at levels associated with recent recessions, we’ve past the point of diminishing marginal returns to the Fed’s cheap-money morphine.

All we’re doing now is pushing on the proverbial string. Trillions in unused bank reserves are piling up. The housing market has stalled after the “taper tantrum” earlier this year caused mortgage rates to shoot from 3.4% to 4.6% between May and August. The Treasury market is getting distorted as the Fed effectively monetizes a growing share of the national debt. Emerging-market economies are increasingly vulnerable to a currency crisis once the taper finally starts.

The Fed knows it. But they’re trapped between these risks and giving the market — the one bright spot in the post-2009 recovery — serious liquidity withdrawals.

But the specifics of the run up to the 1929 crash provide true bone-chilling context for what’s happening now.

The Bernanke-led Fed’s enthusiasm for avoiding the mistakes that worsened the Great Depression—- a mistimed tightening of monetary conditions — has led him to repeat the mistakes that caused it in the first place: Namely, continuing to lower interest rates via Treasury bond purchases well into an economic expansion and bull market justified by low-to-no inflation.

….continue reading page 2 of this great article suggested by Peter Grandich HERE