The chart above shows the average detached housing prices for Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa* and Montréal* as well as the average of Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto condo (apartment) prices (Left Axis). On the right axis is the MLS Annual Total Residential Sales across Canada; the most recent data point being a projection to year end.

In October 2014 Toronto single family detached average prices hit new historical highs on Absorption Rates that are the highest among Canada’s 6 biggest cities. Look also at the total MLS sales across Canada which are projecting the biggest single year since the 2008-2009 plunge. It’s been a banner year for sales.

Meanwhile Edmonton, Ottawa and Montreal prices ticked down in their flat channels along with Calgary prices that dropped with the energy patch selloff while Vancouver ticked up inside Bull Horse Mt.  

It remains interesting to note that the combined average price of a Vancouver, Calgary & Toronto condo is currently 25% more expensive than a median priced Montreal SFD and note also that in the spring of 2006, those 3-City average condos zoomed 58% in price (over $100,000) in just 3 months as the buy side of the market freaked out over the inversion of the 10yr less the 2yr spread as it went negative (Yield Curve). 

Mattress money has gushed into condos with no respect for fundamentals or plan for contingencies that may be required if Pit of Gloom II develops and one must write off capital gains and rely on employment earnings.

For Canadians, a topic of conversation that comes up often is the housing market. More specifically, whether or not Canada is in a bubble – and if so, will it burst?

It is no secret that Canada has some of the highest real estate prices in the world. Real estate prices were not even slightly slowed by the late 2000s global recession; in fact, they kept climbing higher and higher. All while Canada’s neighbour to the south experienced a dramatic drop and has only now recovered. Even more interesting, America’s

average household debt fell after the recession, but Canada’s continues to rise. This is a very concerning thought. 

Some attribute this to Canada having stronger fiscal health, a more stable banking system and the fruitful natural resources industry. Others say that Canada is set to experience a massive cooling down phase, one that would bring a drastic decline in housing prices.

Let’s narrow in on Canada’s West Coast oasis, Vancouver. Vancouver has a reputation for being one of the most expensive cities in the world in regards to housing prices and overall cost of living. In fact, when compared to other Canadian cities’ real estate, in some cases, Vancouver is more than double in cost per square foot. A million dollars will get you a cozy 1,500 square foot condo in Vancity. But the same million will get you 1,600 square feet in Toronto, 2,700 square feet in Montreal, and almost 3,800 square feet in Quebec City,

Outspoken economist, Doug Casey, seems to agree with the sentiment of Canada being overpriced, “ It’s a good time to leave Canada, since its property is quite overpriced by almost any standard – especially in Vancouver, BC.” Mr. Casey believes that Canada will suffer a similar fate as America, since Canadian banks are behaving in similar, generous fashion as their American counterparts did in the early 2000s. He also has dubbed Canada as “USA-lite.”

Will the old saying, “what goes up, must come down,” apply to Canada’s housing market or is this just the new reality of the Great White North? 

Sources: 

• The Huffington Post – How Much Condo You Can Get For $1 Million In These Cities
• The Economist – Live Chart – Parting Company
• International Man – Doug Casey – Let’s Do A Tour Around The World

Michael interviewed cross border insurance expert David Macfarlane on the surprising, and often unknown, liabilities that Canadian snowbirds face with their home, medical, travel and auto protections. Hear some shocking stories and some ideas on how to enjoy your winter sojourns to the US with greater security. CLICK BELOW to listen to the full interview.

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… New report predicts market heat to continue well into 2015… Two-bedroom condos increasingly popular…

New report predicts market heat to continue well into 2015, far from the end of market growth, at least in some parts of Canada. The annual Emerging Real Estate Trends report from the Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers says that Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto and Vancouver will continue to the “best bets” based on investment, housing and development.

….continue reading HERE

….related: Vancouver hit by dramatic drop in house values