Stocks & Equities
1. Huge rallies begin from these conditions
Below is the NYSE Gold Miners Index which is tracked by the GDX ETF. Look at the RSI. Not only did it reach a multi-decade low but it has remained oversold far longer than during the comparable periods. In the four previous periods, the market rebounded suddenly and strongly in percentage terms. Meanwhile, the bullish percent index, a breath indicator is more oversold than in 2008. We plot the indicator with a 10-week moving average that shows it as far more oversold than in 2008. While this indicator does not go back that far, odds are it is likely at a 13-year low.
2. Springtime is usually a turning point for gold stocks.
According to seasonal analysis, precious metals usually peak in the late spring. However, a study of the past 12 years shows that its more apt to say that spring is a turning point. In the above chart we mark the tops or bottoms that occurred in April or May. Assuming we are presently at a bottom then spring will have marked a turning point in gold stocks during 11 of the past 13 years.
3. A selling climax already occurred and the recent low is a false breakdown.
The selling climax occurred in April when GDX declined 24% in only six days. The 20-day volume average peaked days later at 30 million shares. The previous high was 21.5 million shares in June 2012. GDX has also formed a bullish RSI divergence and Monday reversed on record up volume. Prior to Monday, recent weakness was on average volume which was substantially less than during the selling climax. This is a subjective thought but this potential bear trap and false breakdown could be the retest. When you get a failed retest that is a trap or false move it can result in a V bottom. Look for a potential head and shoulders bottom or a V bottom. Finally, if the RSI pushes above 50 then that is a good sign.
4. History suggests the cyclical bear is just about over
Each secular bull market in gold shares has endured two major cyclical bear markets. The chart below, which uses weekly data shows the four corrections. It is possible this correction could last a bit longer and move a bit deeper but in the big picture, the next big move is higher, not lower.
5. There is potential for a huge short squeeze.
Gross short positions are at all-time highs. Some short positions were covered as Gold rebounded from its crash low at $1320. After the rebound fizzled short positions reached an all time high. Gold has formed a short-term double bottom. Without a doubt, short covering contributed to Monday’s huge reversal. If Monday’s rebound is sustained, look for a torrent of short covering to follow.
There you have it. It’s been a tough road for precious metals but the path ahead has strong potential of being significantly profitable compared to these levels. If you’d be interested in our analysis on the companies poised to recover now and lead the next bull market, we invite you to learn more about our service.
Good Luck!
Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
May 17th- 2013- Article by David Banister, Chief Strategist www.TheMarketTrendForecast.com
I used to half joke with some of my investing friends that the best time to buy stocks is during or right after a crash. Think 1987, 2000-2002, 2008-09, and now perhaps Gold Miners?? Well, before we get too far ahead of ourselves, lets examine evidence of a “Crash”: I like to use crowd behavioral, empirical, and technical evidence in combination.
1. In a recent money managers poll, virtually nobody was bullish on Gold or Gold stocks, and over 80% of those polled were bullish on the SP 500 and US stocks.
2. The percentage of Dumb Money traders (non-reportable traders) in the futures markets with short positions on Gold is at all time highs, they tend to be very long at the highs and very short at the lows.
3. The insider buying ratio of Gold Mining stocks to sellers is running over 10 to 1, the highest since October 2008 when Gold bottomed out at $685 per ounce from $1030 highs. Quoting Ted Dixon, CEO of Ink Research, “such a high level of buying interest among officers and directors within their own businesses in the resource sector has correctly foreshadowed a recovery in share prices in the past: That high point of nearly five years ago came about six weeks before the Venture market bottomed on Dec. 5, 2008…While the excitement that surrounded mining stocks as recently as two years ago has waned, experienced value investors recognize that such periods of investor neglect often give rise to the best deals” Source: Theglobeandmail.com
4. The ratio of the HUI Gold Bugs Index to the SP 500 is at multi year lows and in near crash mode on the charts. The RSI Index (Relative strength) on the weekly charts is at 10 year lows at -13.71, which is off the charts low!!
5. Most trading message boards I view at Stocktwits and others are universally bearish on Gold and Gold stocks.
6. Gold is in a wave B or Wave 5 down re-testing the 1322 lows which we have discussed here for weeks as very likely if 1470 was not taken out on the upside… this is a normal sentiment pattern and re-test.
7. Gold has been in a 21 Fibonacci month correction pattern off a 34 Fibonacci month rally from 686-1923. In August of 2011 I penned articles from 1805 right up to 1900 warning of a massive wave 3 top forming. Everyone was bullish, now it’s the complete opposite.
8. Currency debasement continues around the world with negative real interest rates. This is bullish for Gold once this correction has run its course.
9. Hulbert Digest Gold Sentiment index is at an all time low (gold newsletters at -35 sentiment readings!!)
10. Gold -Silver put to call ratios are at all time highs
I could go on and on with headlines and such, but you get the idea. This is the same type of sentiment I wrote about on the stock market on Feb 25th 2009, here is that article... and nobody on the planet was bullish.
Below is a chart showing the Bullish % index for Gold Miners, as you can see the last time we were at 0% was late 2008 when Gold had bottomed out and insiders were also buying like crazy like now:
The GLD ETF chart also shows a likely re-test or slightly lower of the 1322 futures lows of April, when Insider buying hit 10 year record levels:
Obviously Gold could end up going a lot lower than we think, and the Gold Mining stocks could sink further yet. But for those with a 3-6 month horizon, we expect the 21-24 month Gold correction to complete by no later than October 2013. During the next several months the opportunities to buy some miners on the cheap will potentially make some investors a lot of money in the coming few years.
Join us at www.markettrendforecast.com for occasional free reports or sign up for our daily updates on the SP 500 and Precious Metals.
By David Banister
….after slammed 10% lower in 4 minutes.
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,353.75, EUR 1,051.95 and GBP 890.86 per ounce. Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,376.75, EUR 1,069.15 and GBP 903.62 per ounce.
Gold fell $22.20 on Friday to $1,364.90/oz and silver closed at $23.632.
Silver fell victim to heavy, concentrated selling overnight in thin, illiquid Asian trading. Silver was slammed 10% and fell from $22.36/oz to $20.30/oz in just four minutes — from 23:05 GMT to 23:09 GMT.
XAG/USD Spot Exchange Rate – 1 Day (Tick)
Silver has recovered 7% of the price plummet and is now down 2.7% today at $21.60 an ounce.
Silver’s weakness may have contributed to gold falling 1% to $1,354/oz.
It is likely that the very aggressive selling in illiquid Asian markets overnight was by a large hedge fund or bank or a combination of hedge funds and banks with deep pockets. Reuters quoted an analyst at a Japanese bank who said that silver’s price falls were due to one “unidentified investor.”
…..read page HERE
I remember watching an episode of The Jetsons as a kid and being floored by the idea that the family’s food magically appeared in front of them… no muss, no fuss — a cloud of mist that produced a piping hot meal in seconds!
For years I waited anxiously for the Food-a-Rac-a-Cycle that would conjure up a hot meal before my very eyes.
Turns out my wait might finally be over…
Welcome to the future, my friends.
If you’re a regular reader of these pages, you know we’ve been beating the drum on 3D printing for years now. This technology has the power to revolutionize the way we live. We’ve seen 3D printers spit out guns, human tissue, even an entire house. And now we can add a new one to the list of printable goods: meat.
New breakthroughs have taken growing meat from the realm of schlocky horror films to real-life problem solving.
Gabor Forgacs, a biological physicist and co-founder of a “in-vitro meat” start-up, actually broke out the salt and pepper during a recent demonstration and chowed down on a hunk of “biomeat” in front of a delighted audience:
“Not too bad,” he remarked, as he chewed and swallowed the one-inch strip.
…..read more HERE or an entirely new article HERE
Bloomberg is reporting on the rising number of hedge funds shorting gold:
Gold Bear Bets Reach Record as Soros Cuts Holdings
Hedge-fund managers are making the biggest ever bet against gold as billionaire George Soros sold holdings last quarter and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted more declines after the longest slump in four years.
The funds and other large speculators held 74,432 so-called short contracts on May 14, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s the highest since the data begins in June 2006 and compares with 67,374 a week earlier. The net-long position dropped 20 percent to 39,216 futures and options, the lowest since July 2007.
Gold prices that surged sixfold in the past 12 years fell 19 percent in 2013, including a seven-session slump through May 17 that was the longest since March 2009. Soros joined funds managed by Northern Trust Corp. and BlackRock Inc. in cutting holdings of exchange-traded products in the first quarter. ETP assets are now at the lowest since July 2011 after some investors lost faith in gold as a store of value amid improving economic growth, low inflation and a rally in equities.
“Gold has faced disappointment after disappointment,” said John Stephenson, a senior vice president and fund manager who helps oversee about C$2.7 billion ($2.65 billion) at First Asset Investment Management Inc. in Toronto. “It’s had a 12-year run, but the whole fear-mongering that the world is going to end is just not working. So, I think that any last vestige of an investment thesis for gold has been stripped.”
Soros Fund Management LLC lowered its investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest bullion ETP, by 12 percent to 530,900 shares as of March 31, compared with three months earlier, a Securities and Exchange Commission filing showed May 15. The reduction followed a 55 percent cut in the fourth quarter last year. Paulson & Co., the top investor in the SPDR fund, maintained a stake of 21.8 million shares, now valued at $2.86 billion. Global ETP holdings slid 16 percent to 2,207.1 metric tons this year, valued at $96.5 billion.
Goldman Outlook
Gold’s slump “has been faster than we expected,” Goldman analysts led by Jeffrey Currie wrote in a May 14 report. A further drop in ETP holdings would “continue to precipitate this decline,” said the analysts, who forecast prices at $1,390 in 12 months. The metal will get “crushed” and trade at $1,100 in a year and below $1,000 in five years as inflation fails to accelerate, Ric Deverell, the head of commodities research at Credit Suisse Group AG, said in London on May 16.
Physical buying will help to support prices, said Paul Dietrich, the chief executive officer of Middleburg, Virginia-based Fairfax Global Markets, which oversees about $120 million.
India Premiums
Gold premiums in India, the world’s biggest buyer, more than doubled to $40 an ounce May 15 from $17 to $18 a day earlier, according to Bachhraj Bamalwa, a director at the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation. China’s bullion demand jumped to a record 294.3 tons in the first quarter, the World Gold Council said in a report May 16.
Prices surged 54 percent since the end of 2008 as central banks printed money on an unprecedented scale to boost growth. The Federal Reserve is buying $85 billion of assets a month to stimulate the world’s biggest economy, while Japan is making monthly bond purchases of more than 7 trillion yen ($67.8 billion).
“The case for gold is still there,” Dietrich said. “All the central banks are joining in a massive printing of money. Physical demand may be helping provide a floor on prices, and while there’s not a lot of downside risk right now to gold, there is a lot of upside potential.”
……some thoughts on the above from John Rubino of DollarCollapse.com HERE
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