Stocks & Equities

Bad news for the market as one of the most reliable contrary indicators signals trouble – Time Magazine is bullish.

Time Magazine’s Cover story is “How Wall Street Won” with a picture of a bull on the cover??? As Dennis Gartman says, “Time in the past has called the highs and the lows of the stock market far, far too often by being bullish at the highs and bearish at the lows and this cover gives us reason to pause…very,very real reason.”

How to Play Coal’s Demise

Posted by Keith Kohl Editor, Energy and Capitalh

on Tuesday, 17 September 2013 16:33

The United States isn’t the only country hoping to curb its exorbitant coal consumption by taking even more drastic steps than setting incredibly difficult carbon dioxide standards.

China, for example, is outright banning the construction of all new coal-fired power plants near three major industrial regions. The goal is simple: Cut the country’s coal consumption enough so the fossil fuel accounts for only 65% of total energy mix (it’s currently in excess of 70%).

One of the consequences, however, is the threat to U.S. coal exports, which have been steadily rising since shale gas emerged as a cheap, abundant source of energy during the last five years.

coal-exports-9-17

…..more commentary & charts HERE 

E- Wave Triangle Pattern pointing Gold lower

Posted by Gregor Horvat - EW Forcast

on Tuesday, 17 September 2013 15:29

GOLD has turned bearish last week and made a sharp decline towards 1300 with a personality of an impulsive price action; strong and large move in the short period of time. As such, we believe that metal is in a new bearish period which could bring price even back to June lows. We will be looking lower as long as 1434 is in place. With that said, to take advantage of the current down move it’s important to keep an eye on intra-day wave patterns and any evidences of a corrective or contra-trend patterns that will give you an opportunity to join the trend. 

Well, on the hourly we see a sideways movement in tight range which is a very important guideline for a correction, or temporary pause within downtrend. From an Elliott Wave perspective we see current pause as a triangle which is a continuation pattern, most likely placed in wave four. As such, we anticipate trust out of a triangle into wave (v) that could reach levels around 1280 in the next 24-48 hours once 1300 support is taken out.

EWTriangle

TRIANGLE-BASIC STRUCTURE

A Triangle is a common 5 wave pattern labeled A-B-C-D-E that moves counter-trend and is corrective in nature. Triangles move within two channel lines drawn from waves A to C, and from waves B to D. A Triangle is either contracting or expanding depending on whether the channel lines are converging or expanding. Triangles are overlapping five wave affairs that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3.

H2

• structure is 3-3-3-3-3
• each subwave of a triangle is ussaly a zig-zag
• wave E must end in the price territory of wave A
• one subwave of a triangle usually has a much more complex structure than others subwaves
• appears in wave four in an impulse, wave B in an A-B-C, wave X or wave Y in a double threes, wave X or wave Z in a triple threes

 

About the Author

Gregor Horvat

Gregor is based in Slovenia and has been in Forex market since 2003. Most of the charts that you can find on the website is his work. His approach to the markets is mainly technical. He uses a lot of different methods when analyzing the markets; from candlestick patterns, MA, technical indicators etc. His specialty however is Elliott Wave Theory which could be very helpful especially if you know how to use it in combination with other useful tools. 

]Website: http://www.ew-forecast.com/

Non-Economic Reasons the Fed is Tapering

Posted by Matthew Boesler - Business Insider

on Tuesday, 17 September 2013 15:20

ben-bernanke-85The Economic Data Has Nothing To Do With It

Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to announce the first reduction in the pace of monthly bond purchases it makes under its quantitative easing (QE) program at the conclusion of its FOMC monetary policy meeting Wednesday.

Right now, the Fed buys $45 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month – $85 billion of bonds in total – in a bid to stimulate the American economy. The consensus on the Street is that the Fed’s first “tapering” of QE will consist of a $10 billion reduction in monthly purchases, bringing the monthly total to $75 billion.

….more commentary on Frothy Markets, Effectiveness of QE, Bernanke’s Legacy, Fed Credibility & A Shrinking Deficit HERE

 

CDN Real Estate Prices at a Glance

Posted by Canadian Housing Price Charts

on Tuesday, 17 September 2013 14:48

Average SFD prices drop after oil spikes:

4341180 orig

City Charts HERE

VANCOUVER average single family detached prices in August 2013 ticked up 0.3% M/M but remain 13.3% ($141,100) below their peak set last April 2012 (Vancouver Chart). Vancouver combined residential sales although up 52.6% from last year’s drubbing are down 14.6% M/M (Scorecard) as we head into leaky condo season. Average strata units continue to trade at 3Q 2007 prices and as with SFDs, strata townhouse and condo sales dropped 8% and 16% M/M. Prime location inventory remains static (see the Bubble Deflator)

If you are thinking of buying a Vancouver Condo as an Investment, see my Vancouver Condo Yield Case Study and now that you have the August data, where do you think Vancouver SFD prices will be one year hence? VOTE HERE.
 
CALGARY average detached house prices in August 2013 met with more resistance and ticked down another 1.5% (Calgary Chart) and down 2% from the June peak (Plunge-O-Meter). Strata unit prices split with Townhouse prices up 1.3% M/M and condo prices down 1.4% M/M. Combined residential sales slumped 3.2% M/M and inventory levels remain deeply red (Scorecard) as migrant workers and flood victims compete for housing. Alberta remains a different country with respect to record high earnings and immigration.

The sentiment in Calgary is the least bearish (33% bears to bulls) of the 3 markets polled with only 22% of the survey thinking Calgary SFD prices will be 20% lower in 12 months. What do you think? VOTE HERE.

EDMONTON average detached house prices in August 2013 ticked up 1.5% M/M (Canada Chart) and townhouse and condo prices also increased 1.5% and 2.1% M/M but the joy was all happening on mostly double digit drops in M/M sales (Scorecard). Bidding has yet to break the May 2007 peak SFD price (Plunge-O-Meter) which remains like Calgary 2% below the high.
 
TORONTO average detached house prices for the GTA in August 2013 dropped another 1.4% M/M and are 6.1% ($41,266) below the trifecta breakout highs set in May (Toronto Chart). Combined residential sales are off 11.4% M/M with average SFD sales leading the way down 12% M/M. The gap between Vancouver and Toronto housing prices (Vancouver vs Toronto) widened to 45% more expensive in Vancouver. The GTA may have appeal to the HNWI as a “safe” haven but the media does not rate Toronto as investment grade.

Polled sentiment here continues to suggest that prices will be down another 20% in 12 months. What do you think? VOTE HERE.
 
OTTAWA average detached house prices are not available, instead the chart on this site reflects Ottawa’s average combined residential prices. OREB’s report is sparse and opaque and the CMHC, records for Ottawa inventory remain one month lagging. In August 2013 Ottawa combined residential prices dropped 3.1% M/M (Scorecard) and remain 6.2% below the peak price set in April (Plunge-O-Meter).

MONTREAL median (not average) detached house prices in August 2013 ticked back up 0.7% M/M to the June 2013 record price peak (Canada Chart). SFD prices are range bound held in by negative sales dropping 13.2% M/M and down 0.4% Y/Y. The joy came in with condo sales up 5.5% M/M and up 8.9% Y/Y and condo prices rose 1.8% M/M and 3.3% Y/Y (Scorecard). In the 2011 Census, Montreal added 6.4% more dwelling units while only adding 5.2% more people. There is no shortage of housing, but there is a shortage of earnings; the Province of Quebec ranks 6th in Canada’s 10 provinces for earnings and printed an unemployment rate of 7.7% in May (0.4% above Ontario’s).