Energy & Commodities

NEXT PRICE BOOM – HARD ASSETS

Assets 1 3Wealth management firms look to hard assets for next price boom

As equity markets hit all-time highs again, investors haven’t forgotten the 2008 market meltdown that resulted in a 40 percent loss.

And now they are prodding money mangers to help protect them against another one.

To accommodate the well-heeled investors’ cautiousness, money managers and advisers are diversifying assets away from the bubble-prone stock market and into alternative assets like real estate, commodities and sometimes mutual funds that can short the stock market.

It is a trend that many asset managers see continuing over the next few years, several market-research firms say.

….read the full article HERE

BLACK SWAN CURRENCY OPTIONS STRATEGIST

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Our first issue of Black Swan Currency Options Strategist…

Recommendation: 

Adding Japanese yen ETF 98 puts! Targeting 421% profit.

21 October 2013/12:30 p.m. ET

Issue #1

Today Japan recorded its 15th straight trade deficit in a row.  It suggests there is a significant transition taking place within the Japanese economy-either a natural or forced transition to an economy dependent more on domestic growth than the standard export-driven Asian model.  The jury is still out, no doubt, on whetherPrime Minister Abe’s three-arrow strategy will succeed.  But the ongoing Bank of Japan mandate to weaken the yen seems on track and there has been a direct correlation between trade deficits and the yen, as you can see in the chart below.  I believe the yen continues to weaken in the months ahead and suggest you add this new position to your currency options portfolio today:

 Please click the link below to view the issue:

Regards,

Jack Crooks

Black Swan Capital

Silver Prices and the Flow of Physical

10Hunt-resize-380x300The ultimate lynch pin for the silver market is the flow of physical metal to support ongoing price suppression. The flow of physical metal is mostly an illusion nearly equal to (and in some ways parallel with) the perceived strength of the paper currencies used to measure its value. Actual or threat of default in physical silver delivery to the COMEX could very likely lead to default across the asset spectrum.

The Center of Price Discovery

The CME owned COMEX remains the largest and most important exchange for world price discovery in the world. The major players on the COMEX, the most important futures market and the basis for world silver prices, are perfectly happy to exchange paper rather than physical. 

The fact that the largest players are neither producers nor users of the metal is all one really needs to understand about the integrity of the exchange. The advent of algo driven high frequency trading, and the complete capture of regulators has made the physical delivery and warehousing a secondary concern among the dominate traders.

Often we see ratios between the amount of physical stock and paper traded blow out to more than sixty times without creating a panic.

The ratio of open interest to available stock has often stretched beyond comprehension. However, it is the simple fact of large concentrated positions (not subject to limits-hedged or no) which have enabled the ultimate), which have enabled the ultimate, disconnect in pricing reality. While the LBMA is a much less transparent exchange, the same could be assumed without stretching the imagination.  Paper trading is profitable.

COMEX and LBMA Default

While the thought of default on these giant exchanges seems remote given their size and influence, it is possible for delivery delays to develop without major disruption. Significant enough delays could move price discovery toward the physical market, which would have at least two major effects.

First off, premiums for physical metal would likely move significantly higher – leading to real backwardation. More importantly, price discovery could migrate toward exchanges that deal primarily in physical – not paper dominated. This would likely move in an eastward direction toward Asia.

Buyers at the Margin

If physical price discovery were to suddenly or even gradually manifest, demand could explode.

It almost goes without saying that just-in-time delivery practices for some of the most important industrial uses of silver are a constant albatross for the paper delivery game. One or two user stock piling panics could send the white metal well beyond its inflation adjusted average highs.

In addition, the pool of retirement assets and liquid cash held by individual investors and fueled by the speed of information could result in an ocean of demand. Such demand would also propel fiat prices beyond anything resembling imaginable. The silver story is always compelling, but potentially very dramatic as new demand awakens.

While the masters of sentiment have governed the last remaining supply of readily available silver, failure is just one “accident away”. We’ve already experienced unprecedented counterintuitive price and demand relationships in the physical market. Prepare accordingly while you still can.

 

Read more from Silver Majestic:

Precious Metals Bullion Banks Making a Killing by Killing Sentiment

We’ve seen wild volatilty in precious metals – moves that allow a lower entry point buying opportunity for the bullion banks.

Continue reading “Precious Metals Bullion Banks Making a Killing by Killing Sentiment”

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Long Gold, Short Silver And Exponential Demand

The unintended consequence of allowing suppression in the name of industry or to protect fiat currencies has led to a world record surge in physical off-take demand like..

Continue reading “Long Gold, Short Silver And Exponential Demand”

 

About the Author

Jeffrey Lewis

Jeffrey Lewis has been an advocate for silver purchasing for the past six years. He writes regularly about it at silver-coin-investor.com

 

8 Reasons why silver is a better investment than gold!

Unknown-11. The historic silver/gold price ratio was 15 or 16:1, but in recent years, silver is relatively cheaper ranging from about 40:1 to 80:1. On Jan 24th, 2003, with silver at$4.89/oz. and gold at $368/oz., the ratio is 75:1. This means that silver is currently undervalued, and cheaper than historic norms, and thus it is a better investment than even gold if you want to “buy low and sell high”. 

2. The supply and demand fundamentals for silver are extraordinary. There has been an ongoing supply/demand deficit in silver for 12 years. More silver is consumed by industry than is produced by mining and recycling combined. Some say this deficit reaches back 60 years, and has consumed virtually all the known silver ever mined since the beginning of the world. The annual deficit has recently ranged from 100 million to 200 million ounces per year. Annual supply is about 650 million ounces, and annual demand is about 800 million ounces.

3. Considering refined and mined known silver reserves, there is far less silver in the world than gold. About 150 million ounces of silver vs. 4000 million ounces of gold. 

4. Most silver, 70-80% brought to market, is mined as a by-product of copper mining, gold mining, or zinc and lead mining. There are very few silver mines in the world, since most are really copper or gold mines. Therefore, mild increases in the price of silver will not bring substantially more silver out of the ground. Much silver is consumed in photography; by Hollywood and medical photo imaging. There is so little silver used in each photograph, that price increases in silver will probably not reduce demand. With a relatively inelastic supply, and relatively inelastic demand, it will require a dramatic explosion in price to bring the supply and demand deficit back into balance. 

5. Famous Billionaires have bought silver in recent years. In 1997, Warren Buffet bought 130 million ounces of real silver, due to the favorable “supply and demand fundamentals”, and although he bought as much as they would let him legally buy, his purchase was with about 2% of the value of his portfolio. Another Billionaire who tried to follow in his lead would be unable to do so since there is less silver now available in the world to buy at the COMEX than what Buffet has, and less than that in known, reported silver reserves in the world. George Soros owns a large percentage of Apex Silver (SIL). Bill Gates owns over 10% of Pan American Silver (PAAS). 

6. In the gold market, there has been a large increase in paper futures contracts which are used to suppress the price. See my essay, Controlling Gold with Paper. In silver, the relative amount of paper contracts is much larger. In other words, there are more paper shorts who will be caught in an impossible situation when the price of silver really begins to rise due to the fundamental supply demand gap. They will be forced to buy silver or go bankrupt. Either action will cause a dramatic rise in the silver price. If they default on the silver contracts, that will signal to the world the severe shortage of silver, and signal a great investment opportunity.

7. One of the cheapest ways to buy silver: You can buy U.S. coins dated 1964 or earlier, $1000 face value (4000 quarters, or 2000 half dollars, or 10,000 dimes), in a “bag” of “junk silver”, which contain 715-720 ounces of silver, depending on how worn the coins are. In the early 1980’s, when silver was $30-$50/oz., a bag of silver could be used to buy a house! Imagine buying the money for your next house for $3500 today by investing in silver! 

8. You get so much silver for your money. A bag of junk silver weighs about 55 pounds, and is the size of a bowling ball. If you invested $100,000 into junk silver coins, at $3500/bag, that would give you 28.5 bags each weighing 55 pounds, or 57 bags weighing 27 pounds each, or about 1571 pounds total. Could you imagine moving that much around your house if you had to move? Silver is so cheap it creates physical problems for investors today!

…..read more Silver Articles HERE

 

About First Majestic Silver Corp

Management of First Majestic is committed to building a senior silver producing mining company based on the Company’s current portfolio of projects focused on silver in Mexico.

First Majestic owns five producing silver mines including the La Encantada Silver Mine, the La Parrilla Silver Mine, the San Martin Silver Mine, the La Guitarra Silver Mine and the Del Toro Silver Mine.

First Majestic’s largest operation is the La Encantada Silver Mine. This property has been expanded several times since 2006 to reach the current capacity of 4,000 tpd. Running at full capacity, production at La Encantada is approximately 4.1 to 4.3 million ounces of silver, in the form of silver doré bars, annually.

The Company’s second mine, the La Parrilla Silver Mine, is located conveniently outside the city of Durango. The property underwent a fifth major development project in 2012 that further expanded the mill to 2,000 tpd (from the previous 850 tpd). The expansion was deemed commercially effective on March 1, 2012 and the parallel 1,000 tpd flotation and 1,000 tpd cyanidation circuits became fully operational. At the current run rate of 2,000 tpd it is anticipated that La Parrilla will produce in the range of 3.3 to 3.5 million ounces of silver equivalent annually.

First Majestic’s third operating mine, the San Martin Silver Mine was expanded to 900 tpd in late 2008. The mill is currently undergoing another expansion from 900 tpd to 1,300 tpd, with production scheduled to ramp up in September 2013. 

In 2012, the Company completed the acquisition of Silvermex Resources which resulted in the La Guitarra Silver Mine becoming the Company’s fourth producing silver mine. Since acquiring the mine, First Majestic has increased the mill capacity from 350 tpd to 500 tpd.

The Company’s newest producing mine, the Del Toro Silver Mine, began Phase 1 of operations in the first quarter of 2013 at 1,000 tpd through flotation. The next stage at Del Toro, Phase 2, includes a ramp-up in production to 1,000 tpd flotation and 1,000 tpd cyanidation and will allow for the production of silver doré bars.The final stage of production, Phase 3, will see Del Toro’s throughput increase to 2,000 tpd flotation and 2,000 tpd cyanidation, and is on schedule to commence in the second half of 2014. At this point, Del Toro is expected to become the Company’s largest operation.

Management feels strongly that investors will continue to witness a dramatic bull market in precious metals over the coming years. For this reason, a focus to continue to develop and increase production at its core assets will continue. In addition, management is determined to expand First Majestic’s asset base and thus continues to investigate other interesting advanced stage silver projects in Mexico. With a Management team comprised of proven company and mine builders; shareholders are poised to capitalize on First Majestic’s rapid evolution into a world class silver producer. 

 

 

The (Real) Most Powerful Person in the World

UnknownHow do you thank someone who has taken you from crayons to perfume? It isn’t easy, but I’ll try… 
– Lulu, To Sir, With Love (1967)

There is so much to say about the United States government not defaulting.

I’d like to start with a thank you.

It isn’t easy, but I’ll try.

Thank you, Congress, for showing the world there’s nothing wrong with the full faith andcredit of the United States… and for showing the world that having full faith and credit in the United States government is a total bust.

An extension? Really? So, we go through this again in a matter of weeks?

Thanks.

But let’s move on. Let’s talk about Janet Yellen. She’s far more relevant.

She’s about to become the most powerful person in the United States – in the entire world, for that matter.

Here’s the first thing Yellen could do with all that power – if she wants to save America.

So, just how powerful is Janet Yellen going to be?

The (Real) Most Powerful Person in the World

The power to make or break America, to enslave it or free it, is vested in one person: the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.

You see, it isn’t the president of the United States that has the real power. Presidents come and go. The pimps and panderers of Congress come and go, too. And too many stay for too long.

It’s not that presidents and Congress are a sideshow, or that they act on the periphery of the economy – even though they have marginalized themselves to the point of being bit players in the game.

It is simply that the power to control the money supply, the power to control interest rates, and the power to supervise – or more aptly the power to supersize – the banks that have become the arbiters of our daily lives and our manifest destiny (manifesting money in their bonus pools) resides at the Federal Reserve.

You want prosperity? Alan Greenspan gave it to us – not any president or Congress.

You want a crisis and a Great Recession? Alan Greenspan obliged us.

You want to stop the financial systems of the world from going over a cliff? Ben Bernanke saved all the Too Big to Fail banks from imploding into nothingness.

You want to make those Too Big to Fail banks (that all essentially failed) a lot bigger? That would be Ben Bernanke.

You want to enrich the 1% and eviscerate the middle class? You guessed it: Ben Bernanke.

Yellen, the now vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, has been nominated to the chairman’s seat to run America. She will be confirmed.

There are a lot of questions about what Yellen will do and not do with her power.

But will she free us, or continue to enslave us?

What’s the first thing Yellen should do when she puts on that bejeweled crown?

Should she address how she’ll steer monetary policy?

Should she address where she’ll steer policy and execution on bank supervisory issues?

If she delves into monetary policy, should she get into the weeds on tapering quantitative easing?

Or should she refrain from tapering… at least until there’s pheasant under glass on every table – and two Bentleys in every garage – in the homes of her banker “constituents” and their crony capitalist comrades?

If she delves into bank supervision, should she support higher, stronger capital standards, surcharges on Too Big to Fail behemoths, or beefed-up liquidity standards?

Should she limit short-term wholesale funding, and mandate transparent capital plans?

Would she advocate for orderly resolution laws that trigger automatically when institutions are insolvent…. or when they’re adjudicated criminal enterprises?

Or should she just pretend she’s going to make changes while enforcing the status quo?

Or would she begin to change things for the better?

A Change in the Role of the Fed?

There is one thing she could do, one thing she should do – if she wants to save America.

And it’s the first thing she should do. It should be the thing that guides her every policy position, her every decision, and her every proclamation to the American people.

Janet Yellen, immediately upon being confirmed, should hold a press conference. Here’s what she should tell America – and the rest of the world:

“As Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, I will free America from the economic shackles the Federal Reserve System – a system forged on behalf of the banks and institutions that have used it to commandeer our free markets. I am starting right now, by asking the American people to tell Congress to take back the Fed’s dual mandate and take 100% sole responsibility for fiscal policies to ensure full employment.

“I am serving notice, right here and now, that the Federal Reserve will never again be the president’s or Congress’ piggybank. If they don’t want to raise taxes to pay for wars, or programs and giveaways they hope to buy votes with, they’ll have to pay whatever interest rate their creditors demand. Never again will we manipulate interest rates to finance government deficits.

“And as far as being a lender of last resort: Starting today, we’re out of that business. If banks are too big to fail, we will dismantle them. If banks are found guilty of criminal acts, we will jail guilty parties and dismantle them. Any capital markets products that cause inordinate systemic risk, in any way, will be either limited to use by bona-fide hedgers or outlawed.

“The Fed’s mandate under my rule will be simply to free capital markets from manipulation, engender open competition that serves the public good, and ensure price stability commensurate with proactive growth across America.”

Now that would take us from crayons to perfume!

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