Bonds & Interest Rates
How do you thank someone who has taken you from crayons to perfume? It isn’t easy, but I’ll try…
– Lulu, To Sir, With Love (1967)
There is so much to say about the United States government not defaulting.
I’d like to start with a thank you.
It isn’t easy, but I’ll try.
Thank you, Congress, for showing the world there’s nothing wrong with the full faith andcredit of the United States… and for showing the world that having full faith and credit in the United States government is a total bust.
An extension? Really? So, we go through this again in a matter of weeks?
Thanks.
But let’s move on. Let’s talk about Janet Yellen. She’s far more relevant.
She’s about to become the most powerful person in the United States – in the entire world, for that matter.
Here’s the first thing Yellen could do with all that power – if she wants to save America.
So, just how powerful is Janet Yellen going to be?
The (Real) Most Powerful Person in the World
The power to make or break America, to enslave it or free it, is vested in one person: the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.
You see, it isn’t the president of the United States that has the real power. Presidents come and go. The pimps and panderers of Congress come and go, too. And too many stay for too long.
It’s not that presidents and Congress are a sideshow, or that they act on the periphery of the economy – even though they have marginalized themselves to the point of being bit players in the game.
It is simply that the power to control the money supply, the power to control interest rates, and the power to supervise – or more aptly the power to supersize – the banks that have become the arbiters of our daily lives and our manifest destiny (manifesting money in their bonus pools) resides at the Federal Reserve.
You want prosperity? Alan Greenspan gave it to us – not any president or Congress.
You want a crisis and a Great Recession? Alan Greenspan obliged us.
You want to stop the financial systems of the world from going over a cliff? Ben Bernanke saved all the Too Big to Fail banks from imploding into nothingness.
You want to make those Too Big to Fail banks (that all essentially failed) a lot bigger? That would be Ben Bernanke.
You want to enrich the 1% and eviscerate the middle class? You guessed it: Ben Bernanke.
Yellen, the now vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, has been nominated to the chairman’s seat to run America. She will be confirmed.
There are a lot of questions about what Yellen will do and not do with her power.
But will she free us, or continue to enslave us?
What’s the first thing Yellen should do when she puts on that bejeweled crown?
Should she address how she’ll steer monetary policy?
Should she address where she’ll steer policy and execution on bank supervisory issues?
If she delves into monetary policy, should she get into the weeds on tapering quantitative easing?
Or should she refrain from tapering… at least until there’s pheasant under glass on every table – and two Bentleys in every garage – in the homes of her banker “constituents” and their crony capitalist comrades?
If she delves into bank supervision, should she support higher, stronger capital standards, surcharges on Too Big to Fail behemoths, or beefed-up liquidity standards?
Should she limit short-term wholesale funding, and mandate transparent capital plans?
Would she advocate for orderly resolution laws that trigger automatically when institutions are insolvent…. or when they’re adjudicated criminal enterprises?
Or should she just pretend she’s going to make changes while enforcing the status quo?
Or would she begin to change things for the better?
A Change in the Role of the Fed?
There is one thing she could do, one thing she should do – if she wants to save America.
And it’s the first thing she should do. It should be the thing that guides her every policy position, her every decision, and her every proclamation to the American people.
Janet Yellen, immediately upon being confirmed, should hold a press conference. Here’s what she should tell America – and the rest of the world:
“As Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, I will free America from the economic shackles the Federal Reserve System – a system forged on behalf of the banks and institutions that have used it to commandeer our free markets. I am starting right now, by asking the American people to tell Congress to take back the Fed’s dual mandate and take 100% sole responsibility for fiscal policies to ensure full employment.
“I am serving notice, right here and now, that the Federal Reserve will never again be the president’s or Congress’ piggybank. If they don’t want to raise taxes to pay for wars, or programs and giveaways they hope to buy votes with, they’ll have to pay whatever interest rate their creditors demand. Never again will we manipulate interest rates to finance government deficits.
“And as far as being a lender of last resort: Starting today, we’re out of that business. If banks are too big to fail, we will dismantle them. If banks are found guilty of criminal acts, we will jail guilty parties and dismantle them. Any capital markets products that cause inordinate systemic risk, in any way, will be either limited to use by bona-fide hedgers or outlawed.
“The Fed’s mandate under my rule will be simply to free capital markets from manipulation, engender open competition that serves the public good, and ensure price stability commensurate with proactive growth across America.”
Now that would take us from crayons to perfume!
“Cave In” Triggers Buying Avalanche
It should really not come as a “shock” to anyone that the Republican controlled Congress “caved” to the demands of the White House at the “11th Hour.” Since the “deal” was stuck last week there have been a plethora of articles trying to put a positive spin on the GOP’s decision. However, the reality is that they were simply “out negotiated” at every turn.
Let me just say this now – when the debt ceiling debate returns in January/February it will NOT be an issue for the markets. The reason I say this is because of a little known provision inside the bill that effectively removes Congress’ ability to control the “debt ceiling”
“The plan includes a proposal offered by McConnell in the 2011 debt ceiling crisis that allows Congress to disapprove of the debt ceiling increase, which means lawmakers will formally vote on whether to reject a debt ceiling increase until Feb. 7. Obama can veto that legislation if it passes. If Congress fails as expected to gather a two-thirds majority to override the veto, the debt ceiling would be raised.”
What this means is that the Republicans voted on a bill that changes the mechanics of the “debt ceiling” vote to make failure nearly impossible. Instead of needing Congress to approve a debt-ceiling increase, Congress has to override an Obama veto in order to prevent it. So now it requires a two-thirds vote to trigger a “debt ceiling” fight rather than a 50 percent–plus–one vote previously.
Of course, it also won’t be an issue for the markets as they are now convinced that the Republicans will ALWAYS cave into the pressure from the White House. With the Republican Party fractured, and with the latest vote effectively neutering them, the markets are no longer concerned about another fight in three months. With the Fed fully engaged in QE though at least the first half of 2014 – the 3rd stage of the bull market has likely begun.
Market Breaks Out Of Consolidation
At the end of August I issued the first “official” sell signal of 2013. While this
signal did not result in a sharp market decline it did help navigate some of the
extreme volatility that has occurred since.
However, during that time frame, there have been many headwinds resolved
for the markets:
- The “Syrian Crisis” has been resolved
- IRS, NSA, Bengazi, AP, etc. – have all been resolved by being forgotten about.
- German elections are past with Angela Merkel remaining in control
- Janet Yellen is “in” at the helm of the Federal Reserve
- The fear of the Fed “Taper” is now gone for quite some time.
- Debt Ceiling/Shut Down is over.
- Corporate earnings are weak but still beating much lowered expectations. (It’s only the “beat “ that matters)
With all of these previous “headwinds” now successfully resolved, combined
with the ongoing impact of monetary interventions ($85 billion/month) at least
through mid-2014, there is little to keep the markets from advancing further
from here. This statement, however, doesn’t mean that I have changed my
mind on the fundamental underpinnings of the markets which are clearly
weak. It simply means that with mounting levels of liquidity, and no real
constraints, the markets have entered into the “vacuum of space” from a
technical basis.
I have notated several things in the chart below that I feel are critically
important to understand.
The chart above is a MONTHLY price chart so the measures of
overbought/sold are critically important. However, BECAUSE it is a monthly
chart it means that it is a very slow moving chart which can take months to
develop.
The leading American stock indices are at All Time Highs…and could be going a lot higher. The bears claim that the stock market rally is fuelled by Central Bank money printing…and that sooner or later that has to stop…or at least be cut back. But what if it doesn’t? The bears claim that the fools who are driving the market higher will get clobbered once the market “sees through” the idiocy of Central Banks monetizing government debts and deficits. Maybe so…but if you look at the stock market in Caracas, Venezuela ( up 300% last year, up over 300% so far this year) you might wonder why it is such a strong bull market…do you think that the fools who are driving it higher care about P/E multiple expansion? Not likely. Just like in Zimbabwe, which had the world’s hottest stock market a few years back, the people in Venezuela are driving their market higher because they are frightened by their currency’s tumbling purchasing power and they are desperate to exchange it for shares…or anything else.
I frequently ask myself, “Why do you believe what you believe?” I like to think that I saw the crash of 2008 comingbut maybe I’m just “naturally” predisposed to be skeptical of bull market enthusiasm. Having lived and traded through the 2008 crash (and several others going back to the 1974-75 crash) and having grown up listening to my Granddad’s stories of the Great Depression…maybe I’m predisposed to think that cash is king. Maybe I was right for a while…maybe I’m wrong now.
The American stock market, and many others around the world, have been on a bull run for over 4 years. The major indices are at All Time Highs. The more speculative small cap indices are rising faster than the large cap indices…it’s been a Risk-On Market in Full Bloom. The waves of bullish enthusiasm have been inspired by the anticipation of continuing Central Bank largess…the periodic set-backs in the market’s rise have come on fears that the flow of “financial heroin” would be reduced. We have been trading the Anticipation of Central Bank Policy…little else has mattered…including the recent Fiscal Follies in DC…the current Market Psychology is that the easy money is going to keep coming. (Of course Market Psychology is most bullish at an All Time High…how else would we have arrived here…Long Live the Fed!)
Trading comment:
One of my key questions is, “Are you trading what the market is doing…or what you think it should be doing?” I’ve been actively trading gold, stocks and currencies…I’ve made some money…but mostly because my risk management “overrides” have either kept me from making some trades or have taken me out of losing trades quickly…some of my “pet theories” about what the market “should be doing” have just been dead wrong recently.
Chart comment:
The S+P 500 – weekly: In the Big Picture Time Frame it’s clearly a Bull Market in Full Bloom…the guys who think Cash is Trash are certainly winning this round. The money printing may be helping the people who took risks and hurting the people who were risk averse…but it is what it is.
The S+P 500 – daily: When stocks started to fall away from the All Time Highs made Sept18 on the Fed’s “Non Taper” event I wondered if we had seen a Key Turn Date. I couldn’t bring myself to get short…there was no confirmation that a top had been made…and trading on the “got a hunch / bet a bunch” program usually produces miserable results…so I just watched stocks fall as the noise from the DC Fiscal Follies intensified. It was interesting that stocks turned higher on Wednesday Oct 9 – the day Janet Yellen was nominated. Once the market anticipated that the DC distraction was ending prices surged higher…even Fisher (the hawk?) declared that easy money has got to keep flowing…don’t fight the Fed!
Gold – Weekly: In the Big Picture Time Frame it’s been a bear market in gold. Prices fell $740 or 38% from the Sept 2011 ATH to the 3 year lows made in late June. Comex Open Interest peaked in late 2010 and fell 43% to the September 2013 lows. Outstanding gold ETFs have fallen by more than 700 tonnes or 28% from the highs made late 2012. Money has been flowing to the stock market…not to gold.
Gold – Daily: We’ve seen a couple of sharp sell-offs on big volume recently…the sell-offs came right on the opening of the US floor sessions…and it looked like forced selling from margin clerks…but who knows…and then we had a burst of buying (up $40 in a few minutes) very early Oct 17 (just after the Euro and Yen had surged higher) on the Chinese Credit Rating Agency downgrade of the USA. If the June lows were THE lows then the lows made this past week are important…and a move through $1350 would be a bullish confirmation. Gold came very close to making a perfect Weekly Key Reversal higher last week. HOWEVER, gold has been in a bear market…the $250 rally off the June lows may have just been a correction…and if last week’s lows at $1250 don’t hold then look for at least a challenge of the June lows.
Gold in terms of Gold shares – Weekly: For the past 2 years this blog has warned against buying gold shares because they were “cheap.” The ratio of gold/gold shares has recently gone to a 25 year extreme. If gold bullion is indeed making a turn higher from last week’s lows then gold shares may come roaring back…but wait for a confirmation.
Gold in terms of the S+P 500 – Weekly: Money has been flowing to stocks and away from gold…stocks have been rising sharply in terms of gold. If you think that trend has run its course…sit down…and check out the perspective from the monthly chart below.
Gold in terms of the S+P 500 – Monthly: Stocks made huge gains in terms of gold during the 1990’s…the gains over the past two years have been relatively tiny.
The US Dollar Index – Weekly: One of my key themes (a theme is an idea with a time frame longer than my trading horizon) has been that the US Dollar began a bull market in 2011…and is going to keep rising. A theme will often lead me to trade a market the way I think it should be going…rather than the way it is going. I bought the US$ Index during the DC Fiscal Follies (although my lack of conviction on the trade kept me to a ½ sized position) and I closed it out with a small loss when the Euro surged to new highs last week. The US Dollar Index traded to a 3 year high in early July but made a Weekly Key Reversal Down…and kept falling. It just registered another Weekly Key Reversal Down…I think taking a small loss was a good idea!
The Japanese Yen – Weekly: The Yen began to tumble last November when the market realized that Abe was going to win the election…but since the May lows it’s been unable to stay decisively below “Par”…confounding the Yen bears.
The US Long Bond – Weekly: The long bond traded at lifetime low yields in 2012…lower yields than were made in the panic of 2008…but beginning in May 2013 yields moved sharply higher. David Rosenberg, who was a bond bull for 25 years, thinks we’ve seen the lows in terms of yield and that, after a bit of a rally, bond prices are headed lower again. Other long time bond bulls (Gary Shilling, Lacy Hunt) think that the 2013 decline in the bond market was just a correction and that bonds are headed higher. It’s interesting that bonds rallied with the stock market the past few days…don’t fight the Fed!
WTI Crude Oil Futures traded have broken below $100/barrel this morning for the first time since July 3. Crude has traded as high as $112.24 in the past 3 months.
Drew Zimmerman
Investment & Commodities/Futures Advisor
604-664-2842 – Direct
604 664 2900 – Main
604 664 2666 – Fax
800 810 7022 – Toll Free