Personal Finance

One Day this Asset Inflation will lead to Deflationary Collapse one way or the other

financial-bubble-shutterstock 94235713.jpg.w300h300“We are in a gigantic asset bubble around the world with prices of real estate having risen a lot,” he said. “The high end is at record highs. In the Hamptons, in Mayfair, London, Hong Kong, Singapore, and we have a high inflation overseas, so I think that one day this asset inflation will lead to deflationary collapse one way or the other.”

….Click HERE to watch the full interview

 

QE was about getting the Stock Markets going

Marc Faber : “If you think that high end will never lose anything …,” he said. “This is all the result of quantitative easing. The Fed wanted to get the stock markets going. That’s what QE-1, 2, and 3 are all about. Move people out the risk curve, and so far it’s worked.” 

….read more HERE

 

The World is in Gigantic Asset Bubble

Marc Faber, The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, shares his views on how inflation has impacted global wealth.
“We are in a gigantic asset bubble around the world with prices of real estate having risen a lot,” he said. “The high end is at record highs. In the Hamptons, in Mayfair, London, Hong Kong, Singapore, and we have a high inflation overseas, so I think that one day this asset inflation will lead to deflationary collapse one way or the other.

 

“TIME TO BE INCREASINGLY CAREFUL”

“I feel that it’s time to be increasingly careful regarding the stock and bond markets.  Consider this:  Since its 2009 low, the main stock averages have doubled.  So does it really make sense to buy stocks in an area where the stock averages have doubled, and where the Dow and the S&P sport dividend yields of less than 2.5%?  It’s true that money managers are desperate to create some income, and they are forced to deal with the only place where there’s action.  

But that is not true of you and me.  We can enjoy the luxury of sitting safely on the sidelines while the markets wobble to and fro.  In the meantime, gold is a hated item.  Sentiment towards gold is comparable to sentiment at a bear market bottom.  Therefore, if you have to spend your money, I prefer gold at this time to stocks and bonds.”

 

“At any time in history, there is a great and all-encompassing THEME.  And I’ve wondered what the theme of today could be — what is the great theme of our times?  I grew up in different times during the ’30s and 40s.  The theme of my youth was — stop the dictators, Hitler and Mussolini, from taking over the world.

                                                                                                          89 Year Old Richard Russell

UnknownThis is what I believe the theme of our times is.  We are in a period where the “haves” are determined to hold on to their positions in the world.  The “haves” include the world’s leaders and politicians, and the world’s “masters of the earth,” which includes those who control the world’s money.

Those who control the money make the rules, and their main aim is to remain in power.  Currently, the various central banks control the creation and the issuance of money.  To ensure that they remain in power, the central banks are spewing forth a veritable avalanche of fiat currency, money created out of a computer — money that has been created out of “thin air.”  In turn, we are supposed to bow down and thank the money creators, those who are saving us from a new world depression. 

At this time, although no banker will admit it, we are experiencing an international currency war.  Every nation wants a cheap, competitive currency.  It’s a system better known as “beggar thy neighbor.”  Further, here in the US, the Federal Reserve has driven interest rates down to almost zero.

The zero interest rates are calculated to force people into equities, or better still, into housing.  The average man has little or no savings, and if he does have any savings, he can’t find any place that will take his money and produce an income. 

In this whole process, debt has been created to an extent never seen before in history.  So far, the debt has been managed with super-low interest rates and borrowing.  But the compounding process goes on, and the debt mountain continues to grow.  So, to be brief, I see the theme of today as the “haves” doing whatever they have to — to remain in power.

The dangers in the background for the haves are the possibilities that (1) interest rates will begin to advance, and (2) inflation will rise and be so visible that even the common man will recognize it, and begin to protest, or even revolt and (3) the whole debt structure will rise so high that it will topple over of its own weight and take down the entire world economy with it.

So to sum up my search for a THEME, the theme of today is the “haves” remaining in power, and in doing so, also keeping the “have-nots” content and happy.  Everything we are dealing with now, including stocks, bonds, real estate and possible sources of income revolves around the central theme that I have presented.

One further comment.  The key to control by the “haves” is the production of fiat, unbacked money.  Gold is the enemy of money created out of a computer.  When gold was removed as a discipline behind money, those who could create money out of thin air discovered the path to riches and control.  And they developed a hatred towards gold that was understandable.  

Gold was the monetary discipline that stood in their way.  This set off a long period of Fed-sponsored propaganda against gold.  Gradually, through the years, and as generation after generation passed on, even the common man in America began to agree that gold was a worthless relic, a useless ornament to be despised.  So this is what I believe is the theme of our times.  It’s the control of our money by the modern “masters of the Earth.”

To subscribe to Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters CLICK HERE. 

About Richard Russell

Russell began publishing Dow Theory Letters in 1958, and he has been writing the Letters ever since (never once having skipped a Letter). Dow Theory Letters is the oldest service continuously written by one person in the business.

Russell gained wide recognition via a series of over 30 Dow Theory and technical articles that he wrote for Barron’s during the late-’50s through the ’90s. Through Barron’s and via word of mouth, he gained a wide following. Russell was the first (in 1960) to recommend gold stocks. He called the top of the 1949-’66 bull market. And almost to the day he called the bottom of the great 1972-’74 bear market, and the beginning of the great bull market which started in December 1974.

Letters are published and mailed every three weeks. We offer a TRIAL (two consecutive up-to-date issues) for $1.00 (same price that was originally charged in 1958). Trials, please one time only. Mail your $1.00 check to: Dow Theory Letters, PO Box 1759, La Jolla, CA 92038 (annual cost of a subscription is $300, tax deductible if ordered through your business).

Our Deflation call stands!

blackSwanAnd it is why we got bonds and crude oil right.

“Unemployment is sky-rocketing; deflation is in our future for the first time since the Great Depression. I don’t care whose fault it is, it’s the truth.”

                                        John Mellencamp 

Greetings!
 

John Mellencamp can see it.  But the average Keynesian-trained Ph.D. has a blind spot. 

Another jobs report and more questions abound about the underlying strength of the US economy.  Not for us.  We expected this continued malaise.  It was part and parcel to our long position in US bonds and short position in crude oil for the subscribers of our

Global Investor service.  We continue to move stops to lock in open profit on bonds and oil.

…So why did we have any modicum of confidence in these trades?  Simple!  The Fed alone cannot spur growth no matter how much money it pours into the banking reserves.  

 
Black Swan’s new service: Currency Options Strategist
 
Please feel free to forward Currency Currents to your friends and colleagues.  We are always looking for smart new readers.  Thank you.  Jack 

Physicists & The Financial Markets

Physicists have been lured into the financial market for decades, prized for their insights and data-crunching skills. But in a time of turbulence, flash crashes and high-frequency trading, can they really spot things that others miss?

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Markets may be more like a body of water whose surface is constantly disturbed by new events and information, creating great waves whose energy is dissipated beneath the surface

Gene Stanley raises his fork, holds it out flat, a few inches above his plate of risotto. “The majority of traders still use Gaussian models and, when something outside the Gaussian happens, they have all these phrases, like ‘outliers’, but the main phrase is ‘shit happens’.”

He stares at his raised cutlery.

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“Now, if we saw the forks start to levitate, it would be bizarre to say, ‘oh, shit happens’, but they do, that’s what they say. They say, ‘oh, you can’t predict everything’.”

With a chuckle, Stanley tucks back into his food.

Didier Sornettechair of Entrepreneurial Risks at Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich

‘These complex systems are not systematically predictable. They’re only predictable in some regimes’

The famous bell curve described by Carl Friedrich Gauss, the humble normal distribution that underlies so many statistical models, might explain most phenomena in a financial market but Stanley, professor of physics at Boston University, is interested in the levitating forks, the outliers, the “black swans” of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s description.

This is the territory of econophysics, a discipline that sometimes sounds less like a collaboration between physics and economics and more like an attempted takeover of the latter by the former. By using the techniques of physics – poring through vast quantities of data in order to build models from the ground up, searching for patterns and, ultimately, for laws – econophysicists such as Stanley are trying to explain things that traditional financial theories do not.

In the past five years alone, investors have had to endure a US housing market collapse, a global credit crunch and a stock market “flash crash”. That is a lot of flying cutlery.

When future historians debate the genealogy of chickens and eggs up to the credit crisis, one question will be whether rocket scientists came to finance because of its increasing complexity or whether finance became increasingly complex because of the rocket scientists.

Banks and hedge funds have lured physicists for more than two decades, from the shrinking ranks of academic science or from corporate research departments such as Bell Labs in the US. The heads of trading desks were hungry for anyone who could bring new theory to the chaos of the markets or who could model the price of complex derivatives the same way they could divine laws for the physical world.

Little wonder. Vast fortunes can accrue to the most successful of these number crunchers, the so-called “quants” who can spot the market patterns that others cannot. Renaissance Technologies, the Long Island, New York-based hedge fund created by former codebreaker Jim Simons, now manages $39bn and provides a comfortable career for those trained as physicists, mathematicians and computer scientists.

Yet for some of those who have crossed over or undertaken research collaborations with traders, there remains a belief that the insights of physics have been imperfectly applied.

….read more HERE

 

 

On the weak jobs report out of the US this morning the Euro is soaring to new highs on the year to levels not seen since November 2011. The Euro Futures are currently trading at 137.46EUR this morning up almost 6.5EUR in the past two months!

 

Drew Zimmerman

Investment & Commodities/Futures Advisor

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dzimmerman@pifinancial.com