Timing & trends
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said the economy continued to expand at the same “modest to moderate pace” it has seen over most of the past year, though the details of the latest so-called Beige Book report show plenty of positive news with scarcely any negative developments.
According to the report, manufacturing continued to expand and plant managers were optimistic about the near term.
“Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.”
Winston Churchill
Summary
- Japan’s success is far from certain; it is a catch-22
- If success is predicated on a rising current account surplus, it could spark turmoil elsewhere
- Global turmoil likely means another safe-haven flow back to the yen
As you know, I am big fan of Professor Michael Pettis; he of Beijing University fame. He is an expert on global macro and often shares many out-of-the-box insights. Mr. Pettis seems very concerned about Prime Minister Abe’s chances for success. The odds of failure appear high. Let’s take a look at a few key points.
OTTAWA–After 21 consecutive monthly trade deficits, Canada recorded a small surplus in October as imports declined at a steeper pace than exports, Statistics Canada said Wednesday.
Canada posted a trade surplus in October of 75 million Canadian dollars ($70.4 million), whereas market expectations called for a deficit of C$770 million, according to economists at Royal Bank of Canada. The last time Canada recorded a trade surplus was in December, 2011.
Write to Paul Vieira at paul.vieira@wsj.com
The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent.
The warning that I see in the statement today was,
“Meanwhile, inflation has moved further below the Bank’s 2 per cent target. Core inflation is being held down by significant excess supply and by the effects of heightened competition in the retail sector, which look to be more persistent than anticipated. In addition, total CPI inflation has been pushed down by lower gasoline prices.”
The Bank of Canada runs on a single mandate of inflation, therefore that will be a key number to watch.
After the realease the Canadain Dollar futures are ate 93.55 down 0.30 on the day.
Drew Zimmerman
Investment & Commodities/Futures Advisor
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