Mike's Content
Permit me to get right to it. Did you know:
1) The total amount of margin debt has risen by 50 percent since January 2012 and it is now at the highest level ever recorded. (The last two times that margin debt skyrocketed like this were just before the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2000 and just before the financial crisis of 2008.)
2) In the United States, Google searches for the term “stock bubble” are at the highest level since November 2007.
3) Facebook is trading at a valuation that is equivalent to approximately 100 years of earnings, and it is currently supposedly worth about 115 billion dollars.
4) Issuance of bonds linked to loans for the shakiest borrowers hit $17.2 billion this year, more than double the amount sold during the same period in 2010. (Deutsche Bank)
5) The proportion of so-called “cov-lite” loans (loans that are made to borrowers without the normal protections for the lenders) is twice as high as the period immediately preceding the credit meltdown in 2007/2008.
This is just part of the context that you and I are dealing with as investors. Throw in facts like there are more people without jobs in the US, France, Spain and Greece than at any time in history while markets hover around all time highs and you can forgive people for being confused.
That’s why big name investors like Jim Rogers recently stated, “we are all floating around on a sea of artificial liquidity right now. We in the West have staggering debts. The United States is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world,” adding that “this is going to end badly.”
I talk to so many analysts and virtually all of them think the Fed driven market is fundamentally flawed. PIMCO’s Bill Gross, the man who manages the most money in the world tweeted earlier this week that, “all markets are in a bubble.” And like Jim Rogers, he worries about a day of reckoning – the big question is when.
John Maynard Keynes famously warned that markets can stay irrational far longer that investors can remain solvent. In other words, markets can run in either direction farther than reason would suggest possible.
This Is Where We Can Help
What I love about the markets is that when all is said and done there is no B.S., no stories, no excuses – just results. And the results of the World Outlook Financial Conference are clear.
This year our Small Cap Portfolio released at the conference this past February is up over 32%. And that was an off year. In 2012 the portfolio was up 82%. In 2011 6 out of the 11 recommendations were up over 100%. In 2010, 9 out of the 10 stocks recommended went up significantly.
I am not aware of any other conference that consistently recommended gold from 2002 to 2012 but then recommended taking profits in February 2012, and warned of a steep decline in February 2013 as a follow-up to the written warning in the first week of October 2012 that gold was heading several hundreds of dollars lower.
And if you are interested in real estate, consider that the number one recommendation 2010 for investors was to buy the Phoenix market and we added Las Vegas in 2011. People who followed our advice made a killing.
In the currency markets the number one recommendation at last year’s conference was to play the Japanese yen to go down. We exited that trade in May with a 300% gain.
I could go on but the track record of the recommendations has been exceptional. Any one of them would have paid for the ticket price many times over.
Paying For Your Ticket Many Times Over
While past performance is no guarantee of future success we are proud of the fact that our recommended Small Cap Portfolio has never failed to deliver double-digit gains every single year. But please be clear that the results we have achieved over the years have not been by accident.
Our analysts have been chosen precisely because they do have strong track records. No, they are not right every time but their uncanny ability to read the various investment markets while employing proven risk management techniques has clearly raised their probability of success dramatically.
Which, by the way, explains why our analysts like Timer’s Digest Timer of the Year, Mark Leibovit, the incredible Martin Armstrong, Canada’s best known independent real estate analyst, Ozzie Jurock and Keystone Financial’s Ryan Irvine charge in excess of $1,700 for personal consultations. Yet at the World Outlook Financial Conference you can get access to them and get your individual questions answered for as little as $119.
Our Special Bonus
If you go to Moneytalks.net you will see a number of tremendous bonuses that you’ll receive when you buy your ticket but today I want to tell you about just one that could pay for our ticket many times over.
Keystone Financial is about to release their first Small Cap Report of US Stocks. You will get that report as soon as it’s published in early January with the purchase of your ticket. Personally I can hardly wait to see what Ryan Irvine and his team are recommending.
The Point
Our goal is to literally change your investing life. I think we can do it but we need your help. You’ve got to be interested. Come to the World Outlook Financial Conference Jan 31st & Feb 1st in Vancouver. Make a weekend of it. Maybe even take advantage of our special rates at the Westin Bayshore Hotel, whether you live in Greater Vancouver or farther afield. By the way, I think that would make a terrific and meaningful Christmas gift.
I am very confident in saying that the Conference is going to be great.
Sincerely,
Mike
P.S. As you may know I am hugely interested in educating our younger generation and to that end we have a special offer – if you buy a ticket, you can bring a student absolutely free.
The only thing that we ask is you let us know you want a student ticket when you purchase your ticket because we have a limited number of tickets set aside. And I might add that the students have really enjoyed the conference. It is also a great way to share/create a common interest with your children – no matter what their age.
Conference Details
- Where: Westin Bayshore Hotel & Conference Centre, Downtown Vancouver
- When: Friday evening, January, 31 and all day Saturday, February 1, 2014
- To book Your Ticket: CLICK on the icons below
- Cost: $119 for a two day pass and only $199 for the VIP pass.
Tis the Season for the most powerful seasonality trade of the year!
With the stock market up big in 2013 and most participants are speculating on a pullback in the next week or two, I have to say I am on the other side of that bet. Being a technical trader I focus on patterns, statistics and probabilities to power myETF trading strategies. So with 37 years of stats the seasonality chart of the S&P 500 index paints a clear picture of what is likely to happen in December.
If you do not know how to read a seasonality chart, I will explain as its very simple. The simply shows what the index has done on average through each month over the past 37 years. December typically has the strongest up trend and probability of happening any other time of the year.
The Big Board – NYSE
The NYSE also referred to as the Big Board, is an index with the largest brand name companies. Most individuals do not follow this, but to me its as close to the holy grail of trading than anything else I know. I use many different data points from this index (momentum, order flow, trend) for my ETF trading strategies.
You must follow the trend of this index if you want to be on the right side of the market. While I follow and track the New York Stock Exchange closely and it has its own fund NYC but it’s an ETF trade I do not use. These big stocks are what really move the market (S&P 500) I think so I always trade with this index trend in mind.

S&P 500 Weekly ETF Trading Strategy – Bullish
The chart below is self-explanatory I think… But let me recap.
The overall trend is up, so your ETF trades should be to the long side buying on the dips. The chart below goes back three years so the candles are a little condensed and small, but what you need to know are these two points:
1. After a correction within a trend, probability says that price is more likely to continue rising than it is to reverse. Notice the market just had a running correction through the summer months.
2. A reversal candle on the weekly chart (bullish reversal candle) generally indicates a 2-3 week rally is likely to happen.
Conclusion: Seasonality says higher prices, weekly chart below shows bullish reversal candle… Oya!

The Bigger Picture: 3 -6 Months Out…
This is a quarterly chart and BIG picture outlook. Over the next 3-6 months we could see the stock market start to become choppy and rollover into a minor bear market for a couple years. That is the best case scenario I think… The other scenario is a major crash back down to the 700-1000 level on the SP500 which would cripple the baby boomer’s from retiring and getting a job would be impossible for almost everyone – full blown recession way worse that what everyone is saying we are in now.
Things are going to be really interesting over the next few years and things for south you better be prepared to make a killing during the next bear market or life will not be fun. The nice thing is that you can take advantage of these moves without ever having to lift a finger with my automated trading system.

ETF Trading Strategies Holiday Conclusion:
In short, I think we have a couple good weeks ahead of us. Holiday season, quality family time and a rising stock market paints a nice picture in my mind.
Anyway, I hope this report was helpful and somewhat educational. I always appreciate feedback and things you would like me to write about how I interpret, trade or analyze things. I am here to help and new topics to write about are always welcome!
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Initial Reaction
Some of the skew in last month’s job report related to the government shutdown was taken back today, as expected. The labor force stats and participation rate were exceptions, and details reveal much weakness.
- Last month employment fell by 735,000 due to the shutdown, this month it rose by 818,000.
- Averaging the two months, household survey employment only rose by 83,000 (a mere 43,500 per month)
- Last month, the change in those not in the labor force was +932,000. This month, the change was -268,000.
- Last month the labor force declined by 720,000. This month it only rose by 455,000.
- Averaging the two months, the labor force fell by 265,000. This explains the drop in the unemployment rate despite anemic employment growth on average.
- Last month the participation rate fell 0.4 percentage points to a new low, this month, only 0.2 percentage points were taken back.
Ignoring the decline and the rise in employment over the past two months, the huge discrepancy between the household survey and the establishment survey persists.
In essence, this was a bad report, with people dropping out of the labor force like mad.
Revisions
This was the fifth straight month of revisions to the establishment survey but the revisions were relatively minor.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +163,000 to +175,000, and the change for October was revised from +204,000 to +200,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 8,000 higher than previously reported.
Explaining the Unemployment Rate
- Unemployment fell by 0.3 percentage points
- Employment rose by 818,000
- Those in the labor force rose by 455,000
- The civilian population rose by 186,000.
- The Participation Rate (The labor force as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population) rose 0.2 to 63.0%.
Employment rose more than the labor force, so the unemployment rate fell as further explained in my “initial reaction” above.
October BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/12/beneath-headline-numbers-not-good-jobs.html#pIPB2C6hLMzOQLGI.99
Michael’s Money Talks Show for December 7th.
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks Show December 7th (First 1/2 Hour) starts withh Michael’s commentary where he elaborates on the major disagreement he has with who he thinks some days “is with the majority of people”.
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The Final Hour begins with Michael interviewing Robert Levy about Friday’s Unemployment Rate in the US, how it is constructed, how accurate it is, whether it will nudge interest rates higher and the effect that it will all have on Gold, the Canadian Dollar as well as other markets.
For the primary interview Michael interviews Martin Murenbeeld, Chief Economist of Dundee Wealth, an interesting economist in Michael’s opinion about whether that more positive Unemployment Statistic will finally be the trigger for the Fed to begin tapering. Whether they are likely to reduce the amount of Bonds they are buying each month from the current 85 Billion to what, will it be a light touch to 75 Billion month, a firmer one to 50 Billion a month? What would happen to markets and interest rates it they were much more aggressive and reduced that monthy Bond buying to 25 Billion, 10 Billion….possibly even 0 per month? Bottom line Michael and Martin analyse the current interest rates, whats likely to happen and where those rates are likely headed in the near future. Michael also has his take your breath away head shaking “Shocking Statistic” of the week as well as this weeks Goofy award which Michael thinks will bring on the real “we don’t like you very much” hate mail. Ozzie Jurock has a warning for you as well as offering some real do’s and don’ts if you are thinking about purchasing a ski related property. Victor Adair also answers some of Michaels questions about the markets in this jam packed final hour of this weeks Money Talks.
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Short version;
- No changes pending regarding CMHC client premiums
- Headlines easily mislead us
Long version;
The headline below in last weeks Globe & Mail caught more than a few of my clients attention, prompting needless stress.
Flaherty charges CMHC new risk fee on mortgages
Despite the way this headline reads there is no change to actual mortgage insurance premiums charged to CDN homebuyers now or currently pending.
Recent steps taken by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty with regard to charging CMHC a new ‘risk-fee’ premium equivalent to 3.25% of the mortgage premiums CMHC charges should NOT result in increased fees being charged to consumers.
The mathematics of this suggest, if this new 3.25% of the actual premium were charged, then the net increase to current client premiums would translate into approximately a 0.03% increase in premiums. Or in real money, less than $160.00 for the typical CDN home buyer (with less than 20% down payment).
Both rival insurers, Genworth and Canada Guaranty, currently pay a 2.25% ‘risk-fee’ to the Government. Thus market competition, such as it is in this sector, should keep premiums exactly where they are. The only potential twist being this news is one more argument against the calls to reduce current mortgage insurance premiums.
Read more about the stability and profitability of CMHC here.
The real math;
The current premium earned on a typical 95% LTV purchase transaction in Canada is $4895.00. (using the average CMCH mortgage amount of ~$179,000.00)
The current ‘risk-fee’ remittance by CMHC is $0.00
Current ‘risk-fee’ remittance by Genworth and CG in the above example $110.14
The new Premium charged to CMHC moving forward of 3.25% adds a new cost for them to the transaction of $159.09
However market competition dictates that only 1% (or $48.95 in the above example) of this new fee is a burden for CMHC to bear. Arguably CMHC has enjoyed the advantage of not remitting a 2.25% fee as their competition has had to do. All three insurers price their products identically.
If CMHC wanted to pass on to homebuyers the premium it now faces, something very unlikely to occur, then the premium in the above example would rise from 2.75% (on a 95% LTV mortgage) to 2.78%
A .03% rise in mortgage insurance is unlikely to have effect whatsoever on market conditions. Would an additional $159.09 fee which is buried within the mortgage amount, and not an up-front cash expense, slow the market in any way whatsoever? No more than a gnat hitting a windshield slows a vehicle down.
CMHC’s formal announcement;
Re: Government Guarantee Fee Payable by CMHC
Effective January 1, 2014, CMHC’s mortgage loan insurance activity will be subject to a risk fee payable to the Government of Canada of 3.25% of premiums written. An additional fee of 10 basis points will be payable on new portfolio insurance written.
Since January 1, 2013, private mortgage insurers have been required to pay a fee of 2.25% of premiums as compensation for the protection provided by the Government of Canada. The fees compensate the Government for risks stemming from its guarantee of mortgage insurance.
The guarantee fee of 3.25% that has been developed for CMHC takes into account the 100% Government backing of CMHC’s liabilities as compared to the 90% guarantee of the private mortgage insurers obligations to lenders.
These new fees are not anticipated to have an impact on the availability or cost of mortgage funding, nor the cost of buying a house. We are reviewing the impact on our low-ratio portfolio insurance product provided to lenders.
The good news should be highlighted here, it is buried deep within the body of a story with a headline which leans more towards fear-inducing for prospective home buyers;
‘CMHC said it earned $452-million in the third quarter, up 20 per cent from a year ago, thanks largely to a reduction in net claims. The total amount of insurance in force fell to $559.8-billion, compared with $566.1-billion at the end of 2012.’
This leaves one wondering why the headline would not better match the content, perhaps a separate story along the lines of;
‘Taxpayer risk to mortgage portfolio decreases by $6.3Billion’
or
‘CMHC profits rise as defaults drop, stability seen in portfolio’
Perhaps next time. In the meantime keep digging for the good news buried within what often appear to be bad news stories.
Thank you for your time.





