We have a bit of a dilemma. There are far too many bulls to justify further price appreciation, but a number of our gauges are oversold which would suggest that the market wants to go higher.

     Note the put call ratio. It was just at the lowest it has been in several years. That would suggest trouble in the not too distant future. Option buyers are among the worst of all market prognosticators. 

HOWEVER SOME GAUGES ARE OVERSOLD.

     On the other hand the 10 day moving average of the Composite Index is near levels that, in the past, have portended upward price movement.

     Were it not for gauges like this, I would strongly believe that we are topping out, but this makes us scratch our heads. I rarely do this. I like to take a stand, but right now I’m a bit confused by the disagreement among indicators.  

GOLD

     The chart of the GLD, or gold ETF is bearish, but it’s trying to put in a bottom. The immediate problem is that the rally over the first couple of months has gotten 5 week RSI overbought.

Toronto Stock Exchange

      The chart of the Toronto Exchange is clearly in an uptrend. One only has to look at the chart to see that. It’s moving from the bottom left to the top right. Not only that, but note that 5 day RSI is just coming off an oversold condition. This should support higher prices.

Trading For March

     For the past month, the nightly hotline’s trading recommendations profited by 2.71 SSO points. The SSO itself gained 1.55 points.

      The S&P 500 gained 0.69% for February. Our trading gained 2.61%. This is because the SSO is constructed to outperform the S&P 500 by roughly 2 to 1. The chart below shows our trading progress since October of 2012. 

FINAL THOUGHTS

     On Monday, the last day of March, Janet Yellen spurred the markets by saying that the U.S. economy and job market are far from healthy. So to combat this, she and her colleagues on the Fed will continue to do what hasn’t worked over the past five years. Amazing.

    She feels that she can do this because there is “no inflation” Really? Gasoline has more than doubled over the past 5 years and food has also more than doubled. College tuition is soaring. Health care is going up sharply. Please. Spare me your 0.2% increase. in CPI.

     Today we finished the first quarter of an intraday hotline. We charge only if you’re satisfied after each three month. We will be coming out shortly with the track record.  

Stephen Todd, Editor and Publisher                                                                                           P.O. Box 4131, Crestline, CA 92325-4131

Registered Investment Advisor   Phone 909 338 8354909 338 8354909 338 8354

www.toddmarketforecast.com  Issue 4 Year 29  e-mail -toddmarketforecast@yahoo.com   

April 2014                           Due the first Tuesday of each month.

All governments had better open their eyes for we are on the brink of a major convergence between both the Cycle of Civil Unrest, Civil War & Revolution and International War. Both of these models converge and as I pointed out at the Cycles of War Conference, this is the first time we have seen this convergence since the 1700s.

This is no plain modern event with civil unrest erupting because of an interconnected world. These are grassroots uprisings cross-fertilized perhaps from a world contagion yet they often have similarities – corrupt governments. Turkey, Ukraine, Thailand, Venezuela and Bosnia-Herzegovina are all middle-income democracies with elected leaders besieged by people angry at misgovernment, corruption and economic sclerosis. These days it is no longer just dictators who have something to fear from the crowd. This is the promise of Marxism that centralized planning and false promises are coming home and governments are too corrupt and incompetent to deliver what they have claimed for decades.

Communism is dead. The socialistic agendas that have lined the pockets of government and filled the coffers of banks is over. The national debts are on average composed of 70% interest payments not programs to help the poor as marketed. The debts that keep growing with no intent upon paying anyone back are draining the national productivity and turning the people into economic slaves. The standard of living has declined and it now takes two incomes to survive where one use to be just fine. Women won the right to work and lost the right to stay home.

The promises that you save for the future have collapsed into dust as interest rates have been driven lower making savings utterly worthless. There is no such thing as saving and living off your fixed income. The elderly are being driven back into the work force and the whole ideas that a generation believed in are vanishing before their eyes.

So it is no longer communists and dictators that are the targets. All governments are now the targets and when the economy turns down after 2015.75, the threat of civilization will be pulled apart by the self-interest of politicians clinging to power to the detriment of the people.

also from Martin: 

French dealt an Unprecedented Defeat to Hollande’s Socialist Party

North Korea Fires Artillery Shells in the South As they Return Fire