Currency

Dollar Bears & Bautista Blast the Opposition

Posted by Andrew McGuire - Agility Forex

on Thursday, 15 October 2015 15:04

USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2875-1.2947    

The US dollar attempted to rally following this morning’s ever so modest improvement in CPI (Core Actual 0.2% vs. forecast of 0.1% gain) and a small drop in Jobless claims.  However the gains were short lived and the dollar sellers quickly returned.

Overnight, the story was the same except for the dollar rally part.

The Canadian dollar soared like Jose Bautista’s game winning seventh inning stretch, in another lively overseas FX market.

It started in Asia. The dollar continued to free-fall when Asian traders started their day, continuing the move at the end of the New York day. AUDUSD climbed despite weak employment data and renewed calls for a rate cut.  Kiwi stayed bid while USDJPY headed lower even as the Nikkei rallied.

In Europe, EURUSD retreated from its peak on doveish talk from an ECB official even though his comments were nothing new.

USDCAD direction is tied to US dollar direction against the majors and right now that direction is down. US dollar bears cite falling US Treasury yields, long dollar squeeze, soft US data and the perception of US rate hikes being pushed well into 2016 for the selling.

The USDCAD drop is beginning to look overdone, especially considering that WTI prices are currently testing minor support at $4575, which if broken suggests a steeper decline tow the $44.00/barrel area.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish while trading below 1.2950 looking for a break of 1.2840 to extend losses to 1.2650. The move below 1.2900 broke both the 100 day moving average and the low following the July BoC rate cut. For today, USD Support is at 1.2875 (overnight low) 1.2840 and 1.2810.  Resistance is at 1.2950 and 1.2980

Today’s Range 1.2875-1.2950

Chart USDCAD 4 hour with downtrend      Larger Chart

15-oct-cad-1024x375

Seasonal Trade Report – October Bear & Correction Killer

Posted by Brooke Thackray - Thackeray Market Letter

on Thursday, 15 October 2015 14:56

Correcon Could End in October

It is not a coincidence that the favorable six month cycle for stocks starts in late October (October 28th), and Octo- ber is the most frequent months for correcons and bear markets to be “killed,” and the stock market to rally. A cor- recon is defined as a decline of 10% to 19.9% and a bear market as a decline of 20%+.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has had a total of 33 correcons of 10% or greater. Most of the declines were stopped in the second half of the year and by far, the most common month was October, which accounted for almost 1/3 of the correcons and bear market booms (Exhibit 1). 

Screen Shot 2015-10-15 at 7.48.12 AM

….continue reading HERE

also:

October 2015 – Thackray Market Letter

The recent rally has been good, but getting past the old highs is going to be difficult.

…..click HERE for the Thackray Market Letter October 2015

Todd Market Forecast for 3pm PST Wednesday October 14, 2015

Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Thursday, 15 October 2015 14:44

DOW                                              – 157 on 550 net declines
 
NASDAQ COMP                                – 14 on 750 net declines
 
SHORT TERM TREND                        Bearish (change)
 
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND            Bullish
 
STOCKS :  The reason given for the decline on Wednesday was a profit warning from Wal-Mart. I thought this was a bit weird. The company said that this was because of a pay raise to employees, not a decline in sales.
But don’t argue with the market, even if it’s wrong. The market looked like it was turning up, then the Wal-Mart announcement killed the incipient rally about an hour after trading began.         
       
GOLD:  Gold was up $23. A nice decline in the dollar got the credit.      
 
CHART:  I was surprised to see the averages ignore the fact that the Trading Index had two days in a row above 1.50. This normally results in a bounce. Perhaps on Thursday.
 
1440f83a-8048-4097-a872-024c3b2e70ef
 
BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)
Our intermediate term system is on a buy as of August 26.
System 7   We sold the SSO at 60.04 for a loss of .13. Basically a break even. Stay in cash.       
System 8   We are in cash. Stay there.                    
GOLD  We are in cash. Stay there. News and fundamentals:  PPI final demand was down 0.5%, more than the expected drop of 0.2%. Retails sales rose 0.1%, in line with expectations. The Fed Beige Book was described as mildly negative.  On Thursday we get the CPI, jobless claims, the Empire State Mfg. Survey and the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey.
 
Interesting Stuff :  Economists tell us that deflation is bad. Then why did the U.S. become the premier economic power between 1865 and 1915, a period of deflation. Just another thing that they are wrong about.
 
TORONTO EXCHAN GE:   Toronto gained 17.                
S&P/TSX VENTURE COMP: The TSX was up 3.            
BONDS:  Bonds were sharply higher.                                                                                                    
THE REST:  The dollar was down sharply. Silver was up nicely. Crude oil was marginally lower.                                                
 
Bonds — Bullish since September 4.                           
 
U.S. dollar –Bearish since October 9.                            
 
Euro — Bullish since October 9.  
 
Gold —-Bullish since September 24.                              
 
Silver—- Bullish since October 2.                           
 
Crude oil —- Move to bearish as of today October 12.                               
 
Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bullish since August 27.    
 
S&P\ TSX Venture Fund — Bullish since August 27.    
 
We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.  
Wed. Thu. Fri. Mon. Tue. Wed. Evaluation
Monetary conditions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 day RSI S&P 500 75 80 80 81 64 54 0
5 day RSI NASDAQ 67 70 73 74 56 51  0
McCl-
lAN OSC.
 +244 +297 +275 +241 +133 +89
0
 
Composite Gauge 5 7 9 7 15 12 0
Comp. Gauge, 5 day m.a. 6.2 6.2 7.0 7.4 8.6 10.6 0
CBOE Put Call Ratio 1.09 92 .86 .92 .89 .96
0
 
VIX 18.40 17.42 17.08 16.17 17.56 18.03 0
VIX % change -5 -5 -2 -5 +9 +2 0
VIX % change 5 day m.a. -5.6 -5.0 -4.0 -3.6 -1.6 -0.2 0
Adv – Dec 3 day m.a. +1445 +1210 +1228 +819 -345 -655  +
Supply Demand 5 day m.a. .81 .78 .69 .67 .61 .48 0
Trading Index (TRIN) .74 .72 1.22 1.79 1.64 .78
 0
 
S&P 500
 
 1996 2013 2015 2017 2004 1994 Plurality +1
 INDICATOR PARAMETERS
     Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.
      No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.
 

$100 Oil is Possible

Posted by Carl Larry via Hard Assets Investor

on Wednesday, 14 October 2015 19:54

lsdf“China has been busy buying up more oil because they are smarter than a 5th grader. They know that the USD will slip back because it always does, global economies are going to get stronger and everyone is going to be looking for anyone that is growing refinery capacity. That means at some point it’s not going to be about who can produce the most oil, but who has the most oil in hand to refine and produce commercial fuels for everyone. In effect, becoming the Tony Montana of oil.”

…continue reading HERE

And What’s Going to Happen at the Next Recession? by Larry Kummer • October 12, 2015

Posted by Wolf Street

on Wednesday, 14 October 2015 19:46

UnknownThe Government’s strange and awesome powers

Six years after the recession ended, we are due for another recession. Many experts say that the government is “out of bullets” to fight the next severe downturn. That’s quite false because 2008 marked the start of a new era in which our leaders manage the business cycles using strange and awesome tools. We’ll learn the long-term effects of these tools slowly, probably only decades later.

“All is not lost until you run out of airspeed, altitude, and ideas.” — Pilots’ wisdom.

….continue reading this interesting article HERE – Money Talks Editor

 

 

 

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