Seasonal Trade Report – October Bear & Correction Killer

Posted by Brooke Thackray - Thackeray Market Letter

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Correcon Could End in October

It is not a coincidence that the favorable six month cycle for stocks starts in late October (October 28th), and Octo- ber is the most frequent months for correcons and bear markets to be “killed,” and the stock market to rally. A cor- recon is defined as a decline of 10% to 19.9% and a bear market as a decline of 20%+.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has had a total of 33 correcons of 10% or greater. Most of the declines were stopped in the second half of the year and by far, the most common month was October, which accounted for almost 1/3 of the correcons and bear market booms (Exhibit 1). 

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October 2015 – Thackray Market Letter

The recent rally has been good, but getting past the old highs is going to be difficult.

… HERE for the Thackray Market Letter October 2015