Timing & trends
December 10, 2015, 6:28 AM:
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,140 and profit target at 1,990, S&P 500 index)
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.3-0.4% on Wednesday, as investors reacted to some economic data releases. Our yesterday’s bearish intraday outlook has proved accurate. The S&P 500 index extends its consolidation following October rally, as it continues to trade below resistance level of 2,100. The next important level of resistance is at around 2,130, marked by late May all-time high. On the other hand, support level is at 2,020-2,050:


With the reversal in stocks charted intraday, the S&P 500 Index closed marginally below its 50-day moving average, reaching towards horizontal support around 2040.
Oil inventories declined by 3.6 million barrels surprising analysts that had anticipated another build. The days of supply of oil declined and is now 6.0 days above the 32-year average for this time of year.
While 2040 remains the lower limit of the longer-term trading range that supported the benchmark in the spring and early summer, the more critical level to watch may be the November low around 2020. A break of this lower level would suggest a short-term trend of lower-highs and lower-lows below the November peak of 2116, possibly confirming the conclusion to the positive intermediate trend that originated from the September low. From a seasonal perspective, the present tax-loss selling period continues through to December 15th, on average, leading to appealing buying opportunities in beaten down sectors. The 50-day moving average on the S&P 500 Index continues to point higher, implying a positive intermediate trend. As of yet, there is little reason to suggest that the yearend rally will fail to materialize, suggesting patience is warranted. Continue monitoring those levels of support, mainly the 50-day moving average around 2050 and the November low around 2020 and reanalyze the market direction should a break occur.
…..for an extensive report with 45 Seasonal Charts go HERE
Produced by McIver Capital Management
Ethan Dang, Portfolio Manager with McIver Capital Management in Vancouver.
Check out the new law that Obama quietly signed over the weekend
It’s time to get serious.
One of the major themes of this daily e-letter is that major western governments are flat broke.
This is not the first time that a major world power has gone bankrupt, and we need only to look to history to see the consequences.
Thousands of years ago, as Rome’s bleak financial condition deteriorated, it didn’t create a crisis all at once.
Initially the Empire was able to limp along by debasing the currency and diluting the value of people’s money.
But eventually that was no longer enough, so the government’s tactics became worse.
They started imposing more severe taxes, imposing austere wage and price controls, and eventually began confiscating people’s assets altogether.
Rome’s government did whatever it took to remain in power and maintain the status quo for a little while longer, no matter what.
We’ve seen this over and over throughout history, enough times to recognize that when superpowers go broke, it is not a consequence-free environment.
It’s happening again today.
Some modern examples are comical, such as the United Kingdom’s new tax ‘task force’ to crack down on strippers and prostitutes who are suspected of not paying enough tax.
I’m sure there’s probably a lengthy queue of bureaucrats hoping to get assigned to the case.
A few weeks ago, the Greek government started demanding its taxpayers report their holdings gold, jewelry, and even cash stashed under their mattresses. Unreal.
But the biggest example is, go figure, in the Land of the Free.
Over the weekend when the media was terrifying Americans with stories of violent Muslims, the President of the United States quietly signed H.R. 22 into law.
I told you about this bill a few weeks ago.
Buried deep within its 400+ pages is a provision giving the government the authority to revoke your passport if they believe in their sole discretion that you have “seriously delinquent tax debt.”
When I first told you about this bill back in late November, it had not yet become law. So there was still some small chance that freedom (and sanity) would prevail.
Well, freedom and sanity did not prevail.
So this provision is now officially law and will be formally codified in section 7345 of the Internal Revenue Code.
There’s no judge. No trial. It’s a simple administrative procedure. Like that… poof… you can be stripped of your passport.
But if you think that’s vile, here’s the craziest part:
They actually included a nifty little ‘get out of jail free clause’ for the government officials who are involved in the process.
Section 7345(e)(3) states that:
“The Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of State, and any of their designees shall not be liable to an individual for any action with respect to a certification by the Commissioner of Internal Revenue under section 7345. . .”
In other words, if they screw up and revoke your passport due to some bureaucrat flunky’s Excel mistake, you’re not allowed to take action and hold them responsible.
I find this incredible.
A bankrupt government has just awarded itself even more power to destroy people’s freedom in the name of plundering wealth from the citizens.
They made it happen quietly over a weekend when everyone was distracted with a violent shooting.
And they made sure to include specific language to keep themselves from being held accountable for their mistakes.
If you still think the government is there to protect and support you, it’s time to take a hard look at reality.
And the past, for that matter.
In the third century AD, Emperor Caracalla of the bankrupt Roman Empire infamously pointed to his sword and remarked “as long as we have this, we shall not run short of money.”
That’s precisely where we are today.
These people are flat broke. And you are nothing but a dairy cow to them, locked in a pasture to be milked dry as they slide further into bankruptcy.
This is not some wild conspiracy theory. This is their own law, one that they passed when you weren’t looking.
Their own numbers show that they’re bankrupt, and that the trust funds they’re managing on your behalf for programs like Social Security and Medicare are either underfunded or out of cash.
Simply put, they need the money. Your money. And this is not a zero risk, consequence free environment.
It’s time for any rational person to have a Plan B.
After all, you won’t be worse off for taking sensible steps that ensure you don’t have all of your eggs in one very fragile basket.
But if these consequences continue to play out as they have so many times throughout history, a good Plan B means that you’ll be a spectator instead of a victim.
Until tomorrow,
Simon Black
Founder, SovereignMan.com
Oil prices: focus turning to balance sheet adjustments.
Rout in Canadian bond proxies: are telecoms next?
US Technology: stay long on Communication Equipment Makers (OW) vs. the market.






