Currency

Forex Trading Alert: Currency Bears in Charge

Forex Trading Alert sent to subscribers on March 22, 2016, 10:57 AM.

In our opinion the following forex trading positions are justified – summary:

 

Earlier today, official data showed that the U.K. rate of consumer price inflation increased by 0.3% in Feb, missing analysts’ forecasts. Additionally, although month-over-month consumer prices rose by 0.2% in the previous month, the data disappointed market participants, which pushed GBP/USD under 1.4300. How low could the pair go in the coming days?

2016-03-22-EURUSDWeekly

….read it all HERE

 

 

One Of The Most Important Silver Charts Of 2016!

The following long-term silver chart and commentary – “The silver chart looks incredibly bullish.  The buy signal on the MACD has confirmed the upward move and just look at the setup. It will be interesting to see how silver trades in the coming weeks with such a large commercial short position in place.  This is a fascinating battle taking place in both the gold and silver markets in the short-term....continue reading HERE

KWN-David-P.-3222016

 

.continue reading HERE

In the Fed’s March policy statement this week, a funny thing happened on the way towards acknowledging the stronger US economic data of late – they largely ignored it and buried notice beneath a blanket concern for the ailing health of the global economy. By doing so, they broke the back of the US dollar..…continue reading HERE

Todd Market Forecast

For Tuesday March 22, 2016 @ 3:00 Pacific.  
                 
DOW                                                  – 41 on 250 net declines
 
NASDAQ  COMP                                 + 13 on 150 net declines
 
SHORT TERM TREND                         Bullish  
 
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND            Bearish
 
STOCKS: We had to be impressed with the market’s reaction. The S&P 500 entered the session very overbought with a 5 day RSI of 85. 
       Yet, in spite of the terrorist attacks in Brussels, the market barely blinked. This probably means further strength, but we don’t see enough strength to take a trading position, at least not yet.
              
GOLD:  Gold was up $5 on the Brussels attack, but the response was muted because of dollar strength.     
 
CHART: During this rally, we have maintained a bearish intermediate term posture. It has gone further and faster than we expected, but the S&P 500 is still in a declining tops and declining bottoms on the weekly chart and 5 week RSI is overbought.
 
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BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)
Our intermediate term system is on a sell.
   System 7  We are in cash. Stay there.
   System 8   We are in cash. Stay there.
GOLD  We are in cash. Stay there.     
 
News and fundamentals: The PMI Mfg. Index Flash came in at 51.4, less than the expected 52.4. On Wednesday we get new home sales.
 
Interesting Stuff: No man is entirely worthless. He can always serve as a bad example. —-Unknown.
 
TORONTO EXCHAN GE:   Toronto lost 68.
BONDS:  Bonds moved back down.                                                                                                                                                         
THE REST:  The dollar was lower. Silver was slightly higher. Crude oil was slightly lower.                                                                                                               
 
Bonds –Bearish from Feb. 12.                           
 
U.S. dollar – Bearish as of March 7.                              
 
Euro — Bullish as of March 7  
 
Gold —-Bearish as of March 14.                                  
 
Silver—- Bearish as of February 22.                            
 
Crude oil —- Bullish as of March 17.                                
 
Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bullish from January 22.    
 
S&P\ TSX Venture Fund — Bullish from January 29.       
 
We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.  
Tue. Wed. Thu. Fri. Mon. Tue. Evaluation
Monetary conditions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 day RSI S&P 500 70  76 82 85 85 81
5 day RSI NASDAQ 63 71 73 78 80 83  –
McCl-
lAN OSC.
+40 +106 +167 +168 +130 +90
0
 
Composite Gauge 10 6 6 7 8 11 0
Comp. Gauge, 5 day m.a. 8.8 8.4 7.4 7.8 7.4 7.6
CBOE Put Call Ratio 89 .91 .67 .78 .90 1.08
+
 
VIX 16.84 14.99 14.44 14.02 13.79 14.17
VIX % change 0 -11 -4 -3 -2 +3 0
VIX % change 5 day m.a. -2.0 -3.8 -4.2 -3.0 -4.0 -3.4
Adv – Dec 3 day m.a. -30 -51 +680 +1410 +800 +136  0
Supply Demand 5 day m.a. .78 .79 .83 .78 .82 .73 0
Trading Index (TRIN) 1.04 1.42 .94 1.10 .79 1.25
 0
 
S&P 500
 
2016 2027 2041 2050 2052 2050 Plurality -4
 INDICATOR PARAMETERS
     Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.
      No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.

Trust Your Intuition

Screen Shot 2016-03-22 at 11.23.26 AM“I am not a product of my circumstances. I am a product of my decisions.”
                                                                                                         – Stephen Covey
 
Decision making is rarely a rational exercise since we don’t always have the complete set of information available to us.  It is usually an irrational process, with an overlay of rationality to give us inner comfort. As you accumulate experience over time, you learn to depend less on the objective side of decision-making and more on the intuitive side, until it becomes a habit.

In this decision-making vacuum, the difficulty is to discern between emotion and intuition.  I believe intuition is drawn from previous similar experiences that enable us to recall lessons or extrapolate results in a way that gives us additional guidance.  Emotional decisions are based on human nature and undisciplined forces that trigger negative behaviors.

Trusting intuition does not come easily since we are often overwhelmed by human nature (for example, fight or flight response) or become frozen by fear (non-decision). In addition, we will use confirmation bias to seek out more information to justify the decision we have already made in our head, rather than going with the sparse data and feeling in our heart.

It is not something that comes to us easily, as we need evidence that our intuition will help us through trial and error, so, with time, we determine after the fact whether or not it worked. We use that feedback to improve our intuition once again.
Don’t be hard on yourself if you have not really developed a high level of intuitive decision making yet. Just be mindful of it over time, develop confidence in your inner strong voice as you trust it to help you make decisions.

How do you go about doing that practically? Try the following:

Start Small: get into the habit of making rapid decisions on small matters, so you start to trust yourself more. Don’t overthink any small decision, just respond rapidly particularly if you have a strong feeling about the decision.

Be Positive: Fear heightens our insecurities or negativity, forcing us to seek more certainty when it may not exist. Stay positive, and intuition will rise up within you more naturally.

Be Mindful: Be more aware of how you feel, your psychology or mindset, when making important decisions, and then determine how much of the feeling is rooted in fear or courage. It will help you
.
Don’t Over Analyze: Go with the best information you have in the time available, and then move forward. Over analyzing will drown out you’re your inner voice.

If you go with intuition and it doesn’t work out, try to figure out why. What was it that let you down? Try to understand why and take the time to make improvements. Like any habit, it takes continuous practice, over a long period of time to make it stick. Intuition is one of those soft areas that can be critical in decision making, and understanding it can really help make us avoid making material and costly failures. 

By Eamonn Percy

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