Energy & Commodities

Gary Shilling:Failed Doha Meeting – Oil Headed for $10

Gary Shilling has re-upped his bold forecast for oil to fall to $10 a barrel. 

OPEC oil cartel members and nonmembers, who collectively pump out about half the world’s oil, met in Doha, Qatar, on Sunday to try to agree on production limits. The aim was to provide a boost to oil prices. 

However, it all ended without an agreement, in part because Saudi Arabia was not willing to sign anything without Iran on board.

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….read more HERE

related:

Crude oil plunges after producers’ meeting in Doha flops

Stock Trading Alert: More Uncertainty Ahead Of Quarterly Earnings Releases, Still Close To Last Year’s Highs

Stock Trading Alert originally sent to subscribers on April 18, 2016, 6:50 AM.

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,100, and profit target at 1,950, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.1-0.3% on Friday, extending their short-term uncertainty as investors awaited quarterly corporate earnings, economic data releases. The S&P 500 index continues to trade close to its last year’s local highs. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,100-2,120. On the other hand, support level is at 2,030-2,040, marked by recent consolidation, and the next level of support is at 2,000-2,020, marked by previous level of resistance. The index continues to trade within a descending medium-term trading channel. There have been no confirmed short-term negative signals so far. However, we still can see overbought conditions:

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….read more with much larger charts HERE

 

 

 

Miners Reach First Resistance Target but Continue to Outperform Gold

The gold stocks have been on a tear lately as they continue to move higher in defiance of the bearish calls of numerous pundits and traders. After trading lower mid week and filling Monday’s gap, the miners are set to close the week with some strength. While the miners are overbought and could remain below resistance for a little while, their strong outperformance of Gold remains a comforting signal for bulls. 

The selloff in the miners began once they hit their first resistance targets, as noted in our editorial from last week. We noted immediate upside targets of GDXJ $33 and GDX $22.50. To be exact, GDXJ hit $33.07 and GDX touched $23.06. The resistance lines are visible in both charts below. Because the miners remain a good distance above their 50-day moving averages (GDX $19.58, GDXJ $26.82) it is possible they consolidate beneath resistance for a few weeks.

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Turning to the metals, Gold continues to consolidate as it works off the excess speculative positions while Silver has broken out and above its 80-week moving average for the first time since late 2012. Both metals will close the week higher than depicted in this chart.

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Other than Gold’s consolidation and resemblance of a small distribution pattern, the precious metals complex looks quite healthy. The breakout in Silver was telegraphed by the strength in the silver stocks as SIL doubled from its lows and SILJ is up more than 150% from its lows. At the same time, the gold stocks, as already noted have shown the same kind of strength against Gold. Those who are focusing on Gold’s CoT and false topping pattern are neglecting the more powerful signals given by the rest of the sector.

Because the gold stocks are at resistance and remain well above their 50-day moving averages, it is possible they could correct and consolidate for a few weeks before moving towards higher targets. We want to reiterate that the relative strength in the gold stocks and the relative strength in the silver space are healthy signs for the sector. If the sector were about to plunge (as some expect) Gold would be the leader and not the laggard that is now.

Michael Campbell: Economic Ignorance on a Grand Scale

This sums up Michael Campbell’s Daily Comment in a nutshell, Cartoon sent by faithful listener Ken Arnold of SturgeonCounty AB…..

{mp3}grant/041116rn2{/mp3}

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The 3 Most Popular Articles Of This Week

jim1. Jim Rogers – Currencies, Agriculture and Government Incentives

Legendary investor, Jim Rogers on capital markets, US dollar positions, global currencies, the possible relationship between the US dollar and Chinese renminbi, the growth of the renminbi, and  currencies would benefit from a rate hike.

…more HERE

2, Stocks are Going to Great Valuations

The late Richard Russell used to observe, “Stocks are going to great valuations.”

by Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors

…read more HERE

3. The World Economy is Closing in Thanks to Merkel

by Martin Armstrong

Sometimes the brain-dead decision of one person can set off a contagion that sweeps the world.

….read more HERE

 

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