Gold & Precious Metals

The audience at thursday night’s event in Vancouver was treated to some amazing short term and long term forecasts on gold, silver and precious metals. Marty Armstrong was in excellent form and made a persuasive case for exactly how much time and energy is left in the long term bull market in gold. He also shared with us the key geo-political turning points he watching for in the coming years.
 
Mark Leibovit offered over a dozen specific forecasts on companies in the gold space – absolutely invaluable trading insights for anyone looking at stocks in that sector. And to top it all off, David Bensimon‘s live video feed from Singapore gave us the unique experience of seeing David speaking from inside his numerous forecast charts (gotta love picture-in-picture technology). David’s hyper-specific forecasts in gold and silver will have us all watching the markets intensely between now and June 7th!
 
It was a very enthusiastic and energized sold out crowd who left the Westin Bayshore thursday night. If you weren’t able to attend in person, our crack film crew is putting the finishing touches on the video archive which will be available for viewing later that evening. If you would like to watch the video CLICK HERE to purchase your access codes. The streaming format allows you to watch right on your computer screen, can be accessed from any computer anywhere in the world and offers unlimited viewing to fit into your schedule.
 
Thanks again to Marty, Mark and David – and of course to our host and MC MIchael Campbell.
 
Grant Longhurst

Waterfall Decline Produces Capitulation Alert in Gold

The persistent decline in gold prices over the past two weeks has produced the first Capitulation Buy Alert since July 1997. The only other signals occurred in September 1988, December 1984 and September 1975. A period of consolidation, with an upside bias, is the most common characteristic in the following weeks.

Three occurrences saw prices rally back to the 50-day moving average within three weeks (currently $1488). The most recent examples saw prices recover to the 150-day average within twelve weeks (now $1619 and declining at $2 per day).

 

Screen shot 2013-05-23 at 5.20.07 PM

Ed Note: This May 23rd image and comment is from the 1st page of a May 20th 5 page report. This report and  2 follow-up May 23rd reports (a 5 page on silver & a 4 page on Gold) would have been come to you had you been subscribed to Institutional Advisors  Free One Month TrialBe sure not to miss another by subscribing to that FREE ONE MONTH TRIAL of Bob Hoye’s Institutional Advisors. Twitter will announce Publications. 

 

 

Fortune Belongs to the Bold

fortune-favors-the-bold-motivational-latin-proverb-posterAs anyone knows who has tried in whatever way to opine on the financial markets, sometimes three of the most important words in the English language are the following, “I was wrong.” The second most important three words are “I don’t know.” There are several reasons why I say this, but the most important one is that having lived through the 2008 financial crisis I can absolutely tell you that everyone from investment bank heads, CEOs of major corporations, to popular TV financial prognosticators, on down to private speculators and broker dealers in general did not see the crisis coming and took a bath on investments. Even the brightest minds get things wrong. And don’t get me started on central planners, who often never seem to be able to see asset bubbles coming, or to even know how to safely deflate said bubbles if they could see them coming.

In short, the most important lesson of the financial crisis may have been that oftentimes there are no experts, and that sometimes no one is in charge. I don’t mean to be negative in saying this- quite the opposite. It is meant to be empowering.

Oftentimes the big boys and gals get themselves in trouble with their 8 or 9 figure accounts, they are forced to liquidate, and do so without regard to fundamentals. Or put differently, these people are human beings after all who are caught up in the cycles of greed and fear– they are not superhuman, they are not above panicking. These “professionals” seem to act just as unprofessionally as retail investors– sometimes even more so. Its just that the consequences of their actions are felt more powerfully, look larger, and seem more ominous than when John Q. Public gets in trouble with his more meager holdings. But don’t let the carnage brought about by professional liquidation lead you to believe that a sector is permanently done for. Just ask investors at the bottom in March 2009 regarding many financial service industry stocks, for example. Although bottoming is a process, we are clearly at this kind of professional liquidation stage in the precious metal miners, and regardless of the price of metals, you can do quite well with these stocks in the years ahead.

We hear many valid objections to owning mining stocks. Those who only buy gold and silver bullion don’t want the risk involved in a mere paper asset. Others who have followed the cost management (or lack thereof) in the mining industry over these past five years believe that the miners will never get their act together and will never provide meaningful profits for investors. They believe that the mining companies are incapable of learning lessons about cost overruns, or from unrealistic expectations concerning mine acquisitions. Investors think that the miners can’t adapt the way other business owners can.

Couple this with the apparent belief that the bull market for precious metals prices is over, that a new era of nationalizations is upon us and can’t be avoided globally, and you get sentiment readings like the one we see today (and also saw last month). The percent bulls for the Gold Miners ($BPGDM) is at zero. Yes, you read that correctly— zero.

We have been here before, in late 2008. And I hope you know where the miners went from there. I also hope you understand that markets always look broken at the bottom, and that, as Alexander the Great is supposed to have said, “fortune belongs to the bold.”

…more comments from Ryan HERE

Ed Note: With metal mining stocks grinding around at the bottom, names are what you need for investing/speculating. Gregory Weldon’s trend tracker is brilliant. You can get a FREE trial HERE

 

  1. After the 1929 crash, the US Treasury & the Fed worked together. They revalued gold, and began a program of quantitative easing (QE). 
  2. Eight years later, in 1937, the Fed started tightening credit by raising interest rates, and America plunged back into economic depression.
  3. After the 2008 crash, America entered into a very severe recession, and the Fed began a new quantitative easing program.
  4. Recently, the mainstream media and bank economists have been quite emphatic that the economic recovery is solid enough for the Fed to begin reducing the size of the QE program.
  5. While it’s unknown whether a reduction or exit from QE would create an economic crash like 1937, institutional owners of gold have been selling hard, and shorting it. They believe that a reduction in QE would cause gold prices to fall, regardless of whether the economy faltered or not.
  6. Sentiment data shows that most gold analysts are very negative now. They are convinced that the price of gold is likely going much lower, and maybe it is, but I’m not so sure about that.
  7. The timeless market adage, “Buy the rumour, and sell the news!” may be something to carefully ponder, at this point in time. 
  8. Here’s why: A lot of the anticipation for a reduction in QE may already be factored into the current gold price. 
  9. The question you may need to ask yourself is, have the bears dropped the ball, by overplaying their QE reduction card?
  10. The daily charts of both gold and silver are beginning to show some bullish signs. On Sunday night, silver plunged about two dollar an ounce, but there wasn’t much volume, which is bullish.
  11. On Monday, Moody’s warned they would chop America’s credit rating if more action is not taken to reduce government debt. That caused a “skyrocket” move in silver, and all of Sunday night’s losses were recovered.
  12. Monday’s trading volume was truly enormous, and there is now a “key reversal” day apparent on the daily silver chart. 
  13. To view that chart, please click here now . Look at that volume bar!
  14. Note that while the price of silver went to a new low on Sunday night, my stokeillator did not, and the two lines are beginning to show signs of a “budding buy signal”.
  15. There is also a potential inverse head & shoulders pattern forming on this chart. If it is completed, silver could blast all the way to $30.
  16. The daily gold chart is equally impressive. Please click here now . You can see that the lead red line of my stokeillator has arrived at the 20 level, and is beginning to display a bullish hook.
  17. There is also a classic double bottom forming, and I’m sure that many technical analysts at the major banks may soon begin talking about it, in their daily commentary to investors. 
  18.  For this double bottom pattern to “activate”, gold must trade at $1490, but if it does, the technical target is…. $1680!  There are probably very few gold investors who believe such a move is even possible, let alone likely, but markets have an odd habit of doing what is least expected.
  19. There is a big wall of technical resistance in the $1500- $1550 area, but if most of the QE-exit news is already priced into the market, is it possible that gold’s upside action could shock a lot of people? I think so.
  20. Traders can sell lightly at $1400, $1420, and $1440, if the price gets there. It’s good to take regular profits, like pruning a tree, regardless of how high any analysis suggests the price will go.
  21. To view the short term price action for gold, please click here now . That’s the one hour bars chart, and you can see that a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern is forming now.
  22. Please click here now . Double click to enlarge. You are looking at the 2 hour bars chart for GDX. Most investors in the gold community own a lot of gold stock. GDX must rise over the highs at $31.27, to trigger technical buying from momentum traders.
  23. There may be an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming, which could help push GDX to the early April price of $33.71 this week.
  24. Is it possible that just as QE itself is producing “diminishing returns” for the US economy, QE-exit news will soon have minimal effect on the gold price? I think so. Any further QE exit news may be a buy signal for gold!

May 21, 2013
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
website: www.gracelandupdates.com
email for questions: stewart@gracelandupdates.com 
email to request the free reports: freereports@gracelandupdates.com

Silver: “The Greatest Opportunity of All” “Now”

shapeimage 22“if someone has the guts to get in the market now”……”Silver To Soar A Stunning 400% & Gold $1,500 In 10 Months

“The HUI and gold have have had three major buying opportunities since the bull market started roughly 12 years ago.  Each one has led to huge profits and we are now at the fourth bottom which will produce the greatest amount of profits since the bull market began. 

So we’ve hit the bottom and now we are headed higher, and there is no limit as to how high gold and silver can go from here.  Looking back, this will be seen as the greatest opportunity of all if someone has the guts to get in the market now….”

…..read it all HERE