Energy & Commodities
POT – Potash Corp down over 20%
AGU – Agrium down over $4.00
Jul 30, 2013
1. The gold community loves (rising) gold stocks. On that note, I have a new buy signal in play, for swing traders.
2. Please click here now . You are looking at the GDX weekly chart. In a trending market, this 4,8 moving average series has a solid track record of getting investors in and out of intermediate trend moves.
3. Minor trend weakness could be created by the release of three key reports this week. Both swing traders and long term gold stock investors should use that weakness as a buying opportunity.
4. There is a FOMC announcement on Wednesday. Then, Barrick Gold Corporation issues its quarterly report on Thursday. On Friday, the US labor department releases the jobs report.
5. It’s very likely that at least one of those reports creates a sharp sell-off in gold. That would provide swing traders and investors with a good entry point, to act on my buy signal.
6. While a bullish moving average crossover is in play now, acting on that signal still requires some fine tuning. Substantial patience is required, regardless of how bullish the buy signal appears to be.
7. Please click here now . That’s the daily chart for gold. Note the tentative sell signal in play on my stokeillator (14,7,7 series Stochastics) at the bottom of the chart.
8. Gold is in a position of short term danger. It’s hard to know how gold stocks would react to a sell-off in gold, but if they did decline, both traders and investors should be very aggressive buyers.
9. I’ve been a seller of gold stocks in this general price area, but on any tiny pullback I’ll be a much more aggressive buyer, because of the increased number of bullish technical events that are occurring on a daily basis.
10. I’d like you to take a closer look at the gold price action. To do so, please click here now . That’s the hourly bars chart for gold. Gold has been trending higher, within a channel.
11. Note the thick blue and black trend lines that define the channel. Since peaking in the $1348 area, gold has traded in a very tight range, forming a small triangle.
12. It’s likely that one of the three key reports this week will trigger a move out of that triangle, down towards either $1266, or up to the $1380 area.
13. If the move is up, traders need to book more profits, and that move would really “solidify” the GDX weekly chart buy signal that’s in play now.
14. Silver stocks can dramatically outperform gold stocks, when a trending move gets underway. Is there also a buy signal in play on the SIL-NYSE weekly chart, for swing traders?
15. Yes, there is a key buy signal. Please click here now . You are viewing the SIL weekly chart, and I’d like you to look carefully at the moving average signals that appeared in the summer of 2012.
16. Most investors use the 50 and 200 day moving averages, but that can subject investors to enormous drawdowns. My 4,8 weekly chart series has the benefit of very limited drawdowns, as you can see during that summer of 2012 period.
17. The current swing higher has carried SIL from $10.54 to $14.19. That’s about 35%, which is a substantial move. Silver stock buffs should wait for a minor “hit” before taking action on the buy side.
18. For gold bullion swing trading, I like to use a little bit longer term moving average, to smooth out some of the false signals that can occur.
19. Please click here now . On this weekly gold chart, I use the 5,10 moving average series to identify potential trending moves.
20. Note the action of the Williams oscillator, at the top of the chart. I’ve highlighted part of it with a big red circle. Oscillators work pretty well during a period of sideways price action, but the moving averages have superb track records when a trend is in place.
21. The Williams indicator generated a lot of false buy signals over the past 9 months, while the 5,10 moving average series was impeccable.Using this moving average, a buy signal for gold is near, but not quite here.
22. Silver bullion traders have the “privilege” of acting like gold’s little brother, in the market. Ironically, more false signals can be generated on silver bullion charts, than on silver stock charts.
23. For swing trading silver “on a weekly chart”, the 4,8 series seems to provide an optimal blend of managing risk and reward. Please click here now . A buy signal is closer than it is for gold, which should be good news for silver enthusiasts. There are more false signals, but if you want the upside potential that silver brings to the table, you need to accept either more false signals or bigger drawdowns.
24. I never embraced the “growth with safety” trade (buy bullion and sell gold stocks) that was promoted by some gold analysts. Swing traders have a great “growth with risk” opportunity right now in gold and silver stocks, and with a dollop of patience, it should be a winner!
Stewart Thomson
email: stewart@gracelandupdates.com
email: stewart@gracelandjuniors.com
email: stewart@gutrader.com
Jul 30, 2013
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
website: www.gracelandupdates.com
email for questions: stewart@gracelandupdates.com
email to request the free reports: freereports@gracelandupdates.com
Seasonality refers to particular time frames when stocks/sectors/indices are subjected to and influenced by recurring tendencies that produce patterns that are apparent in the investment valuation. Tendencies can range from weather events (temperature in winter vs. summer, probability of inclement conditions, etc.) to calendar events (quarterly reporting expectations, announcements, etc.). The key is that the tendency is recurring and provides a sustainable probability of performing in a manner consistent to previous results.
Identified below are the periods of seasonal strength for each market segment, as identified by Brooke Thackray. Each bar will indicate a buy and sell date based upon the optimal holding period for each market sector/index.
A seasonality study preferably uses at least 10 years of data. Most of our studies use 10-20 years of data, however, data may not always be available for periods greater than 10 years in length. Studies using less than ten years of data can be used, but they tend to be less reliable. Results of shorter term studies have a higher chance of being skewed by a single data point.
About Equity Clock
Equity Clock is a division of the Tech Talk Financial Network, a market analysis company that provides technical, fundamental and seasonality analysis on a daily basis via TimingTheMarkets.com andEquityClock.com. Equity Clock’s mission is to identify periods of reoccurring strength among individual equities in the market using methodologies presented by some of the top analysts in the industry, including that of Don Vialoux, author of TimingTheMarkets.com.
Feel free to use any of the content or seasonality studies (charts, timelines, or otherwise) presented as long as a link-back to this site at EquityClock.com is provided.
For further information on indicators used in reports presented on this site, please visit our reference page.
Horizons AlphaPro Seasonal Rotation ETF (HAC)
Interested in the methodologies and strategies presented by Tech Talk? The Horizons AlphaPro Seasonal Rotation ETF (trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange under symbol HAC) uses a proprietary, seasonal rotation investment strategy developed by research analysts Don Vialoux and Brooke Thackray. The strategy’s core position consists of broad markets at seasonally favourable times of the year and money market securities at seasonally unfavourable times of the year. The strategy allocates from the core portfolio to various sectors when those sectors offer favourable opportunities. Rotating a portfolio in anticipation of these opportunities is designed to deliver returns that are superior to a static investment in broad markets. As seasonal periods are never the same, this investment strategy is supported by additional fundamental and technical analysis.
For more information, Click Here.
A radical new material made from a single carbon atom will soon have a pervasive impact on the U.S. economy – and the entire human race.
200 times stronger than steel and lighter than a feather, this high-tech medium will shape virtually every part of our daily lives by the end of this decade.
The possible uses are almost limitless.
For instance…
- Doctors will soon use it to create implants that will end brain disease…
- Technologists will use it to take the power of 1,000 mainframe computers and hardwire it into your smartphone …
- And biotechnologists will use this very same substance to work as “synthetic blood.”
No wonder the two scientists who discovered this substance won the Nobel Prize in physics last year. That alone should tell you something.
It often takes decades for scientific breakthroughs like this to bag the world’s biggest award. But these two Russians won it for a substance discovered just seven years ago!
We’re talking, of course, about graphene – a substance that is often referred to as the “Miracle Material” of the 21st century.
Make no mistake: This material is not something from science fiction.
It’s for real. And it has the power to revolutionize biotechnology… electronics… energy… computers…even more.
Best of all, it holds the promise of extraordinary new wealth for investors who know the secrets to playing this transformational breakthrough.
….find out what exactly Graphene is HERE
JPMorgan is exiting physical commodities trading, the bank said in a surprise statement on Friday, as Wall Street’s role in the trading of raw materials comes under unprecedented political and regulatory pressure.
After spending billions of dollars and five years building the banking world’s biggest commodity desk, JPMorgan said it would pursue “strategic alternatives” for its trading assets that stretch from Baltimore to Johor, and a global team dealing in everything from African crude oil to Chilean copper.
……read more HERE
-
I know Mike is a very solid investor and respect his opinions very much. So if he says pay attention to this or that - I will.
~ Dale G.
-
I've started managing my own investments so view Michael's site as a one-stop shop from which to get information and perspectives.
~ Dave E.
-
Michael offers easy reading, honest, common sense information that anyone can use in a practical manner.
~ der_al.
-
A sane voice in a scrambled investment world.
~ Ed R.
Inside Edge Pro Contributors
Greg Weldon
Josef Schachter
Tyler Bollhorn
Ryan Irvine
Paul Beattie
Martin Straith
Patrick Ceresna
Mark Leibovit
James Thorne
Victor Adair