Economic Outlook

Latin American Stocks Back In Fashion For 2019

Posted by Michael Kern

on Thursday, 24 January 2019 7:15

With the crisis in Venezuela and more than a dozen major presidential elections in only two years, investor appetites for Latin American stocks riding a precarious wave of instability had dwindled—but the hunger is now re-emerging, with Brazil becoming all the rage.

So far this year has been the start of a Latin America comeback, now that 14 presidential votes are over and there’s room for investors to think optimistically about stability and reform, excluding Venezuela, of course. They’re eyeing a boost in economic growth that has attracted new emerging market investment money….CLICK for complete article

Morgan Stanley Upgrades Walmart, Says Premium Valuation Is Justified

Posted by Jayson Derrick

on Wednesday, 23 January 2019 9:11

Gutman said over the past five years, Walmart’s U.S. EBIT contracted on average by 52 basis points but management’s dedication towards cost control, expense leverage, stopping all store expansions, zero-based budgeting, and moderating e-commerce dilution will help U.S. EBIT margins expand by one basis points. EBIT can expand without the need for the company to give up its reputation of offering customers low prices and a high level of convenience….CLICK for complete article

U.S. Trade Deficit With China Grows To Record High

Posted by Charles Benavidez

on Thursday, 17 January 2019 5:37

China’s exports are down, and imports are down even further, which translates into a trade surplus for Beijing that could set Trump on an even more aggressive warpath.

With year-end 2018 data now in, China ended up with a $324-billion trade surplus with the U.S.—a trade surplus that is over 25 percent bigger than it was prior to Trump’s ascension to the throne in Washington, DC.

And that’s even with Chinese exports down. Based on Chinese data analyzed by the BBC, exports from China dropped 4.4 percent in December, compared to the previous year, and imports also fell 7.6 percent…..CLICK for complete article

Nomura: Don’t Ignore These Three Big Structural Forces

Posted by HedgeAccordingly

on Wednesday, 16 January 2019 9:32

China’s yuan has surged to start the year, despite dismal economic data and dramatic easing from the PBOC. US equities have soared since the start of the year despite tumbling EPS expectations (and “little progress” on US-China trade talks). Cable has zoomed higher for a month, despite an increasingly vicious cycle of dismal results for May and her watered-down Brexit plans.

Up is down, bad is good, but water is always wet and The PPT is ever-present.

While markets remain focused on the next headline and next ultra-violent high-frequency swing, Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez warns that investors don’t quite appreciate how important some of the longer-term structural themes are….CLICK for complete article

THE WOLF STREET REPORT

Posted by Wolf Richter

on Tuesday, 8 January 2019 9:30

Nothing Goes to Hell in a Straight Line, not even on Wall Street.

I have to admit, it was the most volatile holiday period in the stock market and the credit markets that I can remember – and perhaps in history. All kinds of crazy things happened, just when market participation was thinnest. These were crazy moves. But those crazy moves won’t be the last crazy moves…. CLICK for complete article