Economic Outlook

US GDP Growth Rebounds To 3.1% In Q1

Posted by Wayne Duggan

on Thursday, 27 June 2019 9:14

Despite concerns over a slowing global economy and negative impacts of the ongoing trade war with China, the U.S. grew its gross domestic product by 3.1% in the first quarter of 2019, up from just 2.2% growth in the fourth quarter of 2018.

The growth was surprisingly strong given falling economic growth forecasts around the world, a volatile stock market, an ongoing trade war with China and more dovish commentary from the Federal Reserve.

After a fourth-quarter sell-off, the S&P 500 surged more than 14% in the first quarter, one of the strongest starts to a year in history. Concerns over a near-term U.S. recession eased, and economic growth numbers suggest the U.S. economy is on a stronger footing than previously feared….CLICK for complete article

China Launches World’s First Smart Oil Tanker

Posted by Irina Slav

on Tuesday, 25 June 2019 8:56

China unveiled the world’s first intelligent Very Large Crude Carrier, which will have a capacity of more than 2.257 million barrels, China News Service reports, adding that the vessel, named New Journey, was delivered to China Merchant Energy Shipping Co. in Dalian.

“At present, countries around the world are actively promoting intelligent navigation and developing intelligent technologies for ships, which plays an important role in improving maritime traffic safety, energy conservation, emission reduction and economic efficiency,” the news service quoted the vice chief engineer of the company that built the VLCC, Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co., as saying.

Among the “intelligent” features of the vessel, according to Guan Yinghua, are assisted autopilot navigation, intelligent liquefied cargo management, comprehensive energy efficiency management, equipment operation and maintenance, and finally integrated ship-to-shore communication, China News Service reports.

The Economy Is Both Booming And Headed For Recession

Posted by Heisenberg

on Monday, 24 June 2019 9:01

“The economy at the moment is in a superposition of two states.”

A fixture of debates about the relative merits of Fed cuts in the current environment is the paradox of conflicting data, some of which suggests the US economy is rolling over, some of which suggests it’s not.

This is something that’s vexed Fed officials and while there are a number of ways to illustrate it, a simple visualization might simply show, on one hand, unemployment loitering at a five-decade nadir and, on the other, manufacturing surveys diving to Trump-era lows amid trade uncertainty.

Jerome Powell has, of course, spent quite a bit of time documenting the extent to which the data has a habit of sending conflicting signals. Trump’s trade policies cloud the outlook for corporate America and also for the Fed. With respect to the latter, there’s an argument to be made that the president is deliberately muddying the waters to engineer easier monetary policy….CLICK for complete article

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, May Update

Posted by Wolf Richter

on Friday, 21 June 2019 9:35

Home prices across major metros in Canada ticked up 0.5% in May from the prior month, the slowest rise for any May in the 21-year history of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index. “If seasonally adjusted, the index would have been down 0.4% on the month,” the report said. But real estate is local, with wide variations from market to market, and so here we go.

Vancouver:

In Greater Vancouver, house prices, instead of rising seasonally, declined 0.2% in May from April, the 10th month in a row of declines, according to the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index. The index is down 5.0% from the peak in July 2018, the sharpest 10-month decline since July 2009. And it’s down 4.1% compared to May 2018…CLICK for complete article

US Consumer Debt Is Worse Than Ever

Posted by Michael Kern

on Friday, 21 June 2019 9:27

By some calculations, our consumer debt right now has surpassed what it was in the 2008 financial crisis. If American consumers held $13 trillion in credit cards, car loans, mortgages and other debt in 2008, it will be shocking to learn that they may have topped $14 trillion this year. The $14 trillion calculation comes from Marquette Associates’ senior research analyst of fixed income, Ben Mohr, and it’s spreading like wildfire in the media for the drastic implications. After all, the last financial crisis hit when all those loans went bad, taking down the securities that were pegged to them.

New polling data from a Morning Consult/CNBC survey supports Mohr’s thesis, showing that Americans have indeed taken on more credit card debt than ever before, including during the 2008 financial crisis.

Discretionary spending–spending on clothes, entertainment, etc–is responsible for a large share of that….CLICK for complete article