Economic Outlook

Blain’s Morning Porridge, Dec 3 2020: Market PTSD

Posted by Bill Blain

on Thursday, 3 December 2020 8:10

How Great is 2021 going to be? 

Strategizing about markets is a really, really fun way to start the day. I wake up with something to do and think about every day! I often get asked about when do I find time to write the Morning Porridge. Does it take all my time? Nope. I down tools on it by 9.00 am most days. I really do have a day-job – financing private debt and equity deals. Yesterday was spent working out how to restructure a UK aerospace and satellite launch project, and then how to present an infrastructure deal in the most effective way to potential investors.

Occasionally something big happens in markets that sets the Morning Porridge’s tone for the coming day, but most days it’s freshly produced from personally sourced global ingredients, or from thoughts leaping off the pages I scour as I wake up. Some days I have a very clear idea what I’m going to write about, and others, I wake up wondering what is there to say that hasn’t already been written about where the markets are going next.

Occasionally a theme or an idea will germinate or fester slowly in my head and it takes me a while to think it through and develop it. I’m having one of these days… I’m trying to think through the Consequences of the Year of the Pandemic. My thinking is its nowhere near complete.. and I’m beginning to scare myself.

The coronavirus has been the defining theme of 2020 – but what did it actually reveal in terms of markets? Its set the narrative. Everything else reacted to it. We saw enormous shifts in terms of policy and business strategies. All these shifts have consequences on future demand, supply, investment and growth, but also on expectations. Markets think its over so they are enthusiastic. Get back in the box…CLICK for complete article

Some Reasons for Caution

Posted by The Trend Letter

on Tuesday, 1 December 2020 15:35

Our model gave a recent warning of a potential market top coming soon and we sent subscribers a strategy to protect their portfolio. Below we show a few charts that allow investors to see some reasons for concern here.

The first chart shows the daily purchase and sell transactions by corporate insiders – officers, directors, and holders of more than 10% of company shares. The SEC requires these shareholders to report purchases and sells within two days of a transaction. As we can see on the chart, during the massive sell-off…Click for full article.

on Sunday, 29 November 2020 13:13

“The CBC’s attitude to economics journalism is the same as an adolescent’s attitude to household chores. They figure if they do it badly enough, they won’t be asked to do it again.”
– Stephen Gordon, Laval Economist

on Thursday, 26 November 2020 11:06

“The current rules close small bookstores, florists and lighting stores to in-store business but allow customers to line up at Costco and Walmart to buy these same items. If it is dangerous to buy a book at an independent bookseller, why isn’t it dangerous at Costco?”
~Dan Kelly, president, Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses

Warren Buffett Sold His Last 3 Canadian Stocks

Posted by Andrew Button

on Monday, 23 November 2020 11:04

In 2020, Warren Buffett has been lying low. Preferring to play his cards close to his chest, he hasn’t revealed much about what he’s been buying and selling. However, once every quarter, he is forced to reveal what he was up to in the quarter before. As it turns out, the “Oracle of Omaha” massively reduced his exposure to Canadian stocks this year.

In the second quarter, Warren Buffett sold out of Restaurant Brands International completely. That move was well publicized, leaving two Canadian stocks in his portfolio. He has trimmed both of those positions throughout the year as well. If this continues, Buffett may be out of Canadian stocks completely by the end of the year. That’s not a great sign for the Canadian economy but — as you’re about to see — there’s a silver lining. CLICK for complete article