Market Opinion

It’s not what we feared it might be…

 

Yesterday I was bombarded with more articles, comments, graphs, data and YouTube links following a Morning Porridge than ever before. I made a conscious effort to check as many as I could out.  Some of them were excellent. Some less so. There is still an awful lot of badly-written unsupported conspiracy-theory corona-denial out there. There is some very good fact-based commentary. There is plenty of data and good science – and I missed much of it till y’day!

I’ve put together a list of some YouTubes to watch and articles to read at the bottom.

My conclusion is simple. The evidence shows the coronavirus is not what we feared it might be. It is not the Medical Armageddon we closed down our economy to avoid. As a result we just hot our Economy in the foot. Lockdowns probably achieved very little – aside from wrecking whole swathes of industry, business and commerce.

Covid-19 is serious, it makes many people very ill, and it has culled large number of vulnerable people. Many people remain in danger. But it is not the Big One. It is not a repeat of the 1918 Spanish Flu or the Black Death. The story of the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic started with the assumption it was going to be a global disaster killing millions, but it’s turned out to be something very different and less threatening.

We should be thankful for that. The Big One is surely still coming. What we’ve experienced over the last months allows us to figure out what worked and what didn’t for next time. Hopefully we can face the tragedy and challenges of the next real pandemic without creating economic misery as well. At some point mankind will accidently unleash a new SARs or other virus that could kill millions. COVID-19 wasn’t the killer we thought it might be.

But…. READ MORE

 

Interesting Note on Platinum

Interesting Note Yesterday from Mark Leibovit on Platinum

“We’re generating a Postive Leibovit Volume Reversal in the Platinum ETF (PPLT) today and there is also an interesting ‘inverse’ head-and-shoulders pattern formed at the same time”. – via Don Vialoux of Timing the Market

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A year ago, Vancouver portfolio managers Mark Jasayko and Neil McIver made forecasts about the direction of world currencies, stock markets, gold prices, oil, natural gas, commodities, interest rates, Canadian real estate and carbon credits. They were on the money on every front except interest rates. Here are their fearless forecasts for 2012:

Higher gold prices, flat Canadian stocks seen. In 2012, portfolio managers also forecast higher interest rates, lower real estate prices, loonie between 90 cents and par and flat food costs…

 

In 2012, portfolio managers also forecast higher interest rates, lower real estate prices, loonie between 90 cents and par and flat food costs

A year ago, Vancouver portfolio managers Mark Jasayko and Neil McIver made forecasts about the
direction of world currencies, stock markets, gold prices, oil, natural gas, commodities, interest rates,
Canadian real estate and carbon credits. They were on the money on every front except interest
rates. Here are their fearless forecasts for 2012:

Gartman reverses his call on Gold

The ultimate crime in investing is not being wrong – it’s staying wrong!

 

I was not surprised to learn about Dennis Gartman’s change of heart and commend him for it. Not because he’s back on the side I’m on but for not committing one of the cardinal sins of investing – always being one-sided. I not only came to appreciate much about Dennis that I didn’t know and/or experience before my December challenge, but believe he’s light years ahead of the two stooges in my challenge. Dennis didn’t double-talk, twist facts and actually try to change history in his responses like the other two but rather took an extremely high road back then and now in his latest assessment.
I tip my hat to Dennis and am honored to now call him a friend (even if he bails again which if history is any indication, he will… but more power to him if and when he does).

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We’re not out of the woods yet in this latest correction in the “mother” of all gold bull markets. Technical traders are likely to try and sell any rallies around here until such time their charts turn positive again. But like it has done again and again, the physical market has overcome the paper sellers and the greatest all-time gold bull market shall once again bloody the perma-bears and weak-knee bulls.

I credit people like Jim Sinclair and GATA (who just issued this release) for not only being mostly right while the so-called “establishment” gold people have mostly missed the greatest gold bull market in history, but for allowing me to wear this fine hat with them (Tokyo Rose is just jealous his head is too big to fit in one).

Stock Market 2012 Inflection Point

LONG TERM: inflection point

After completing a 26 month, (Mar09-May11), Primary wave I high at SPX 1371 the market declined in five waves to 1075 by Oct11. We initially interpreted this decline as five waves down completing Major wave A. Then we expected a Major wave B rally, lasting about two months, retracing about 61.8% of the entire decline: around SPX 1258. The market then surprised most with an impulsive looking uptrend to SPX 1293 in only 18 trading days. We then considered the five waves down might have been an extended flat. Similar to the extended flat that ended the 1987 crash. This opened options to both a bull and bear market scenario. After the late-October SPX 1293 high, the market corrected in an abc pattern into a late-November low at SPX 1159. This corrective downtrend, essentially, kept both bull and bear scenarios alive: a resumption of the bull market, or a Major wave B still underway.

(click on the chart or HERE for larger view and the whole article)

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