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Complete Show – Dec 12th

What’s the worst pandemic financial/economic policy? Mike’s got a new entrant. Nick Otton drops by to talk about an alternative that pays 4 or 5 times more than government bonds or bank deposits. And you better sit down for the shocking stat.

Safety First – Behind the Scenes of Canada’s 1st Regulated Blockchain Investment Platform

On November 25th Canadian regulators quietly approved a first-of-its-kind investment platform that employs distributed ledger technology, better known as blockchain. This application, called Finhaven Private Markets, operated by Finhaven Capital Inc., allows for investors to purchase securities from private issuers directly, without the need for a broker, deal representative or clearing house. And perhaps more importantly, allows for those securities to be privately traded on the platform directly between qualified individual investors.

The potential for this application to revolutionize the securities industry is significant. Traditional capital raise models such as IPOs, RTOs and brokered financings could become as outdated as video games disks and home phones.

But as with every new advance in the financial sector, the potential for bad actors and malfeasance has to be identified, addressed and guarded against. That task has fallen largely on the shoulders of Finhaven’s Chief Compliance Officer Sandra Jakab. Ms. Jakab has worked at the highest compliance levels of Canada’s financial and investment industry, heading up Capital Markets Regulation at the BC Securities Commission for nine years, and at one time being the only woman responsible for managing conduct risk for a major Canadian bank.

“It was a big decision to join the team at Finhaven and leave behind the familiar institutional world,” explained Ms. Jakab. “But how many times in a career do you get a chance to build something brand new, something that could fundamentally impact the Canadian investing landscape.”

Sandra and Finhaven Private Markets worked closely with regulators across the country, especially with the BC Securities Commission that served as Finhaven’s principal regulator, who in turn worked with the Securities Administrators Regulatory Sandbox Committee — a group set up specifically to encourage Canadian innovation and technology advances for the industry. Perhaps not surprisingly, something this new is being held to an incredibly high standard – one far beyond what current Exempt Market participants must employ. While the front end of the system offers simple, safe and secure paperless solutions – behind the scenes, the tracking will be cutting edge.

As Sandra outlined, “the platform initially will be restricted to “accredited” investors who must meet some long-standing criteria for income and/or assets. In addition, we apply proprietary tools that assess investors’ asset concentration, market knowledge and the risk of their current portfolio. This will ensure each investment opportunity offered is a good individual match for our clients. And at the same time, connecting our investment product issuers with a highly qualified group of accredited investors.”

Finhaven is banking that accredited investors will be open to the heightened requirements, as it makes them eligible to trade directly and privately with other equally-eligible investors on the platform.

Every Canadian securities dealer must address the inherent conflict-of-interest between the needs of companies seeking to raise capital, and the investor’s need for transparency and surety. Finhaven Private Markets has taken the addional step of establishing an Outside Advisory Board which will conduct an independent assessment of each investment offering from the perspective of the potential future shareholder. “We’re excited to not only bring new opportunities to Canadian investors, but to do it in a way that increases confidence in the process as well,” said Ms. Jakab.

And now that Finhaven Private Markets has been launched from the “sandbox” it will be fascinating to see if the team can deliver on the promise of blockchain technology in the securities industry.

Send Cards of Support

Thanks Terry Glavin for the idea to send Christmas cards – 730 days in solitary confinement in China for the crime of being Canadian. Take 2 minutes and let Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor know you care.
Christmas cards for the Mikes can be sent c/o the vile Cong Peiwu, Ambassador, People’s Republic of China, 515 St. Patrick., Ottawa, Ontario, K1N 5H3

Half-Truths Are Half Lies By Definition

“When one side of a story is heard and often repeated, the human mind becomes impressed with it insensibly” – George Washington

Daughter- Can I go out with friends?

Father- Have you asked your mother?

Daughter- Of course I have.

Father- Okay, have fun.

In the plot above, the daughter only tells her father half of the truth. She fails to disclose that her mother said “no.”

Like the daughter’s craftiness, many markets are surging on narratives built on just one side of a story. For speculators and gamblers, that seems to suffice. For investors aiming to build and preserve long term wealth, we suggest understanding every side of a story.

Of the many tales we hear to justify record equity valuations, low-interest rates are among the more popular. Make no mistake, low interest rates provide benefits to stock prices. However, that is only half of the truth. We now present the other half of the story that few tell.

Opportunity Cost

There is a popular narrative that says stocks should do well simply because bond yields are pitifully low. The basis behind the argument is simple math comparing historical stock returns versus current bond yields. The fact of the matter is that historical average returns and expected stock returns are often quite different.

The calculation of expected returns is primarily a function of the price of an asset. The higher the price paid, the lower your expected returns and vice versa.

As we wrote in “You’ve Got To Ask Yourself One Question. Do You Feel Lucky?” current expected equity returns are near 0, as valuations are extreme. Statistically based expected returns are vastly different than the “we hope for” expected returns spewed by cheerleaders in the financial and social media outlets.

The article presents four popular valuations methods and the expected returns based on the historical relationship between valuations and 10-year forward returns. In each case, the current valuation has a strong statistical correlation with the coming 10 years of returns.

We extend that analysis by comparing those return expectations to yields on Treasury and corporate bonds.

The intersection between the same color vertical and trend line denotes the expected return for the respective valuation method. We show Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields and BBB-rated corporate bond yields with the dotted horizontal lines.

The table below the graph summarizes our findings…CLICK for complete article

Millennials Prefer Bitcoin Over Gold As A Safe Haven Asset

The investing universe has labeled millennials many things: lazy, entitled, narcissistic among other unflattering terms. They have also been accused of being highly risk-averse, preferring flashy investments like crypto over slow-n-steady ones like stocks and bonds.

While some of those platitudes are plain wrong (many millennial stock picks have been handily trouncing the markets), others appear spot on.

And now a survey has established that an overwhelming majority of millennial investors actually prefer bitcoin over gold as the superior safe haven.

A recent global survey by deVere,  one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and fintech organisations, has revealed that millennials really do prefer bitcoin to gold as a safe-haven asset.

The revelation comes just a week after the world’s largest cryptocurrency touched an all-time high of $19,864.

Digital gold

In the deVere survey, more than two-thirds (67%) of the 700+ millennial respondents said that they think Bitcoin simply is a better safe haven compared to gold.

According to de Vere: “From Ancient Egypt onwards gold has always had immense value and has long been revered as the ultimate safe-haven. It’s always been a go-to asset in times of political, social and economic uncertainty as it is expected to retain its value or even grow in value when other assets fall, therefore enabling investors to reduce their exposure to losses. But, as this survey reveals, Bitcoin could be dethroned within a generation as millennials and younger investors, who are so-called ‘digital natives’, believe it competes better against gold as a safe-haven asset.” CLICK for complete article