Economic Outlook

The US Trade Deficit, Explained

The S&P 500 is down 5 percent this year despite tremendous year-over-year earnings growth. One of the primary factors weighing on the market: fear over the ongoing international trade war, particularly with China. President Donald Trump has repeatedly cited the U.S. trade deficit with China as grounds for the trade war….CLICK for complete article

Bitcoin Capitulation Is Not Over Yet

Bitcoin investors have endured plenty of misery this year after the leading digital currency crashed spectacularly. It would be nice for once to report that the selloff is done, and the market is ready for a huge leg up…. CLICK for complete article

A Canadian Scandal That’s Finally Getting Some Attention

Kimberly Fawcett’s story is one of unfathomable tragedy – determination – and dedication to serving Canada. Unfortunately her story is also about a lack of compassion, common sense and decency on the part of government.

Christmas Rate Hike

Due to the expected slowing global economy, stock market turmoil and the growing headwinds from rising interest rates, some analysts are holding out hope that the Fed might slow the pace of further hikes—even if this goes against the consensus.

It is widely anticipated that the Fed will hike interest rates again this month, which would be the fourth this year, with Fed members noting during a late September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee that “participants generally anticipated that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would most likely be consistent with a sustained economic expansion, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near 2 percent over the medium term”.

Looking ahead to 2019, Fed officials expect at least three rate hikes will be necessary, and one more in 2020. Fed officials expect the key rate to rise to 2.4 percent at the end of the year, 3.1 percent at the end of 2019 and 3.4 percent at the end of 2020, according to their median estimate.  CLICK for the rest of the article

Kass: Top 10 Reasons Why We May Be Entering A Bear Market

bearbulls

“It’s okay to be wrong; it’s unforgivable to stay wrong.” – Marty Zweig, (October 16, 1987 Wall Street Week – at six minute and 40 second mark!)

As I have often noted history rhymes – though history doesn’t necessarily repeat itself. And (as Benjamin Disraeli reminded us), what we have learned about history is that we have not learned about history.

Beginning early this year I argued that the market was in the process of making an important top. I described a market top and bottom as resembling an ice cream cone – that tops are processes and bottoms are events.

With the benefit of hindsight it is clear that the market’s nine year uptrend and Bull Market have likely been broken…. CLICK for complete article

 

You Won’t Believe How Canada Voted

castroandt

This week the UN voted on 8 resolutions condemning Cuba’s human rights violations from imprisoning gays, to banning unions, to arbitrary arrests of political opponents. France, German, the UK, the US all voted one way. Guess which way Canada voted.