Daily Updates

The U.S. energy sector has a history of moving higher from February to May each year. Will the seasonal trade work this year?

Seasonal influences The S&P Energy index has a period of seasonal strength from February 25th to May 9th. The trade has been profitable in 24 of the past 26 periods. Average gain per period was 8.9%. The index outperformed the S&P 500 index by an average of 5.6% per period

….read more HERE

Interest Rates and Gold

Richard Russell has made his subscribers fortunes. One of the best values anywhere in the financial world at only a $300 subscription to get his DAILY report for a year. HERE to subscribe. Amongst his achievements Richard was in cash before the 2008/2009 Crash and he has been Bullish Gold since below $300

Ed Note: Richard Russell is bullish Silver and holds one of the largest single positions he has held since the 1950’s in the precious metals.

 

Older subscribers may remember that I said that the Fed could continue its “quantitative easing” (printing money) until the bond market says it can’t. Below is a daily chart of the 30-year Treasury bond. The bond market doesn’t like what it sees. I view the pattern on this chart as a huge, down-slanting head-and-shoulder top with the bond sitting right on support. The bond appears weak, and if support is violated, interest rates will be heading higher. And that’s the last thing the Fed wants at this time.

0.EA0

I recently showed gold in a down-slanting “wedge” pattern. Such patterns usually resolve themselves to the upside, and that’s what may be happening now. Bringing the picture up-to-date, we see that gold has pushed above the upper trendline. This is a bullish indication.

2.18B8

 

Richard Russell – “Gold — I believe that gold is building a bullish structure above its downside support of 1,000. As I write April (the active month) gold is selling at 1094, only 6 points from the 1100 level. Gold topped on December 3, 2009 at 1218.30. Obviously, that is the upside target. If gold rises above 1218 it will have “gotten rid” of a lot of amateur traders and gold-haters. It will also be squeezing a large short position. I consider the current slow, measured upward action of gold to be positive and characteristic of bull market action.”
“Even the stupid, gold-hating central banks are buying gold. And what are they buying it with. The lousy fiat currency that they themselves are manufacturing. And how long will it be before those with gold won’t swap their gold for fiat paper? That’s the time when gold will go parabolic in the coming third phase.”

Richard Russell has made his subscribers fortunes. One of the best values anywhere in the financial world at only a $300 subscription to get his DAILY report for a year. HEREto subscribe. Amongst his achievements Richard was in cash before the 2008/2009 Crash and he has been Bullish Gold since below $300
Ed Note: Richard Russell is bullish Silver and holds one of the largest single positions he has held since the 1950’s in the precious metals.

This change is coming

Richard Russell has made his subscribers fortunes. One of the best values anywhere in the financial world at only a $300 subscription to get his DAILY report for a year. HERE to subscribe. Amongst his achievements Richard was in cash before the 2008/2009 Crash and he has been Bullish Gold since below $300

Ed Note: Richard Russell is bullish Silver and holds one of the largest single positions he has held since the 1950’s in the precious metals.


The gold shares have been lagging bullion. The gold shares tend to have leverage, and for this reason the sensitive mining stocks often lead bullion. So far, the action of the miners has been disappointing compared with the action of bullion.

This may be about to change. The chart below shows GDX (mining stocks) in a relative strength study against GLD (bullion). The ratio is now turning up in favor of the mining stocks. This should be bullish for the whole universe of gold.

0.16B8

Two leading gold mining shares that I watch are now acting bullishly. ABX and NEM have both crossed above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This too is bullish for gold. In time, the big gold mining shares will be taking over some of the smaller miners, in order to increase their reserves.

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5.36BE

 

 

In the monthly U.S. Treasury report this week, it was announced that China had sold $34.2 billion of Treasuries in December (or allowed short-term ones to run off), making Japan once again the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries.

The battle between China and Japan for the title of largest holder of this dubious asset is not very interesting. What’s more interesting is the question of where China is instead opting to invest. After all, $34.2 billion is a fair chunk of change, and China’s overall reserves are growing – not shrinking – and now total $2.4 trillion.

The People’s Bank of China usually keeps its holdings a carefully guarded secret, much more so than for most central banks – our knowledge of its holdings of Treasuries comes from U.S. data, not from China.  We do, however, have some evidence about the Chinese government’s investment thinking, thanks to the holdings of China Investment Corp., the country’s $200 billion sovereign wealth fund.

….read more HERE.

87 Crash redux…

“The Dow plummeted 22.6% on October 19, the largest one-day decline ever and a record that still stands. From the market’s peak that summer, almost half of its gains since 1982 had been wiped out by the day’s close. At the time, I thought the crash might usher in a depression, just as the 1929 crash had signaled the onset of the Great Depression.

As it turned out, I was the fool. The market quickly regained its footing, regaining all of its loss in about 1½ years.” Steven Goldberg- Kiplinger.com

Ed Note: Earnings crash and rapid recovery to new highs in 2010?

20100219

 

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