Daily Updates

Us Dollar: Down and down she goes -While Gold Soars

It’s never too late to do the right thing. The world is in the process of rejecting money by fiat now.

How do I know that? The market tells me so. Month by month, year by year, gold increases in purchasing power while fiat money loses its purchasing power.

US Dollar: Down and down she goes, and where she stops nobody knows. Note the “death cross” is spreading as the 50-day MA sinks below the 200-day MA. The fragmented dollar is very oversold now, and a rally is overdue. But the death cross should act as a ceiling. The dollar is sinking against the six currencies of which the Dollar Index is made of. But the dollar is sinking against almost all the world’s currencies. What to do, what to do? I know, follow the Bernanke formula, just create more of it. Remember the old saying, “When you’re standing in a hole, and you want to get out of it, just stop digging.”

US Dollar Gold

Richard Russell has made his subscribers fortunes. One of the best values anywhere in the financial world at only a $300 subscription to get his DAILY report for a year. HERE to subscribe. Amongst his achievements Richard was in cash before the 2008/2009 Crash and he has been Bullish Gold since below $300

National Inflation Association – Preparing Americans for HyperInflation

October 5th/2010

Gold reached a new all time high today of $1,342 per ounce and silver reached a new 30-year high of $22.85 per ounce!

NIA’s latest stock suggestion U.S. Silver Corporation (TSX Venture: USA) closed today at a new 52-week high of $0.405 for a gain of 45% since we suggested it to you on September 20th at $0.28!

NIA’s second to latest stock suggestion Canadian Zinc (Toronto: CZN) closed today at a new 52-week high of $0.78 for a gain of 111% since we suggested it to you on July 28th at $0.37!

NIA’s SLV January 2011 $20 call options reached a high today of $2.92 for a gain of 214% since we suggested them to you on February 8th at $0.93!

First Majestic Silver (Toronto: FR) reached a new 52-week high of $7.32 for a gain of 169% since we suggested it to you on June 2nd, 2009, at $2.72!

Silver Wheaton (SLW) reached a new 52-week high of $27.29 for a gain of 305% since we suggested it to you on February 26th, 2009, at $6.74!

Tomorrow morning, NIA will be releasing a must read article about how ALL Americans will be billionaires by year 2020! Subscribe to NIA for FREE HERE

Now here:

 

Inflation to Make All Americans Billionaires By 2020

One of the Federal Reserve’s original stated purposes was to manage the nation’s money supply through monetary policy that provides for stable prices without inflation or deflation. Shocking just about the whole world except for NIA members, the Federal Reserve this past week shifted its purpose from being an inflation fighter to now being an inflation advocate. Charles Evans, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, is now saying that inflation in the U.S. is too low and the Federal Reserve needs to publicly declare a new goal of having inflation that is much higher than its informal 2% target. William Dudley, President of the New York Federal Reserve, is calling current low levels of U.S. inflation “a problem” because “it means slower nominal income growth”.

Dudley believes “slower nominal income growth” is unacceptable because it “means that less of the needed adjustment in household debt-to-income ratios will come from rising incomes. This puts more of the adjustment burden on paying down debt.” In other words, he wants to monetize our debts by printing so much money that all Americans are earning enough income to pay back their debts. NIA fears that one of the unintended consequences of such a policy will be an insurmountable currency crisis; this will lead to a U.S. societal collapse with class warfare, millions of Americans starving to death, and a return to a barter based system that will last until we can come up with a new form of workable government based on sound money that is backed by gold and silver.

When our government creates inflation with the goal of generating higher incomes, the real incomes of Americans always decline dramatically. Inflation never creates wealth, but instead misallocates resources that would have went towards productive purposes if the free market was allowed to operate. During periods of high inflation, no matter how fast incomes rise nominally, they never keep pace with rising gold prices. (Try to picture Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe trying to keep pace in a race against Olympic gold medalist Usain Bolt.)

Back in 1970, the median family income in the U.S. was $9,870. During the next decade, the U.S. government created unprecedented amounts of inflation, which led to the median family income rising in 1980 to $21,020 for a gain of 113%. Gold was only $35 per ounce in 1970, but rose to a high in 1980 of $850 per ounce for a gain of 2,329%. One year of income in 1970 would have bought 282 ounces of gold, but one year of income in 1980 would have only bought 25 ounces of gold. Priced in gold, families saw their real incomes decline during the 1970s by 91%.

On July 19th of this year, with everybody in the mainstream media warning Americans about the threat of deflation, NIA predicted that the Federal Reserve was, “quietly getting ready to implement ‘The Mother of All Quantitative Easing'”. NIA said that, “come this October, Bernanke is likely to shoot up his largest ever dose of quantitative easing.” Then on July 28th with gold down to $1,158 per ounce and silver down to $17.63 per ounce, NIA sent out an alert entitled, “Gold and Silver Capitulation is Near” in which we said, “The sentiment on gold and silver has abruptly changed to the negative like nothing we have ever seen before and to us this means the big move to the upside is right around the corner.”

NIA called the bottom on gold and silver perfectly. Since July 28th, gold and silver have both risen 34 out of 49 days, with gold rising by 16% and silver rising by 30%. Many people are asking us when precious metals are going to dip. Although gold and silver will make many dips in the years to come, NIA is never going to make an attempt to predict these short-term, temporary dips. It is far too risky and dangerous to sell gold and silver with the hope of buying back on a dip. Those who actively trade gold and silver, usually go long the U.S. dollar while they are waiting for a dip. There will come a time when the U.S. dollar crashes, with gold rising hundreds or even thousands of dollars in a day, and silver potentially doubling or tripling in value in a day. Trust us, you do not want to be on the wrong side of the trade on that day. NIA is focused on the long-term risk of hyperinflation and is not concerned about short-term volatility.

NIA believes that if the Federal Reserve doesn’t reverse course immediately, we are on a direct path to all Americans becoming billionaires by the year 2020, if not much sooner. Being a billionaire in dollars won’t mean anything. The wealth of Americans later this decade will be calculated based on how much gold and silver they own. We are at the beginning stages of a massive worldwide rush out of the U.S. dollar and into gold and silver.

Gold, at a new all time high of $1,344 per ounce, is still very undervalued. If gold’s total bull run from its 2001 low of $256 per ounce equals a percentage gain of 2,329% (just like the 1970s) we will see a gold price of $6,218 per ounce. Silver, at a new 30-year high of $23 per ounce, is still an absolute steal. Just like NIA predicted, the gold/silver ratio has declined in recent months from 70 down to 58, but is still well above the historical average of 16. In our opinion, because silver has been undervalued for so long with artificially high gold/silver ratios, once JP Morgan is forced to cover their naked short position in silver we could see the ratio decline to an artificially low level as low as 8. Therefore, if we see $6,218 per ounce gold, we wouldn’t be surprised to also see $777.25 per ounce silver.

Dudley’s solution to our current economic crisis is to “find ways to increase the amount of stimulus we currently provide via our balance sheet.” This is pure insanity. Bush’s $200 billion stimulus sent oil prices to $147 per barrel, Obama’s $800 billion stimulus prevented massive price deflation (that would have made cost of living in America a lot more affordable) during a period of rapidly rising unemployment, and now the Federal Reserve believes even greater stimulus will fix our economy. Dudley is calling for the Federal Reserve to purchase $500 billion in bonds, but the Federal Reserve’s real quantitative easing will be much greater. Dudley doesn’t want to steal the show from Bernanke. He must allow Bernanke to be the one who first suggests the “genius” idea of having quantitative easing of $1 trillion or more.

The truth is, the exact amount of the Federal Reserve’s short-term purchases is absolutely meaningless. Keep your eyes on the big picture and remember that if the Federal Reserve’s treasury purchases aren’t enough to create massive price inflation in the short-term, they will continue to unleash even larger doses of quantitative easing. Our gut feeling is that we are practically at the point where the U.S. economy is about to overdose on any further quantitative easing. A “Meltup” is currently taking place, exactly like NIA predicted in our documentary ‘Meltup’ that was released on May 13th (it has now been viewed by over 808,000 people).

We may be forced to soon change our hyperinflation forecast from the years 2014-2015 to as soon as the year 2012. NIA has long been predicting ever since its first documentary ‘Hyperinflation Nation’ that besides gold and silver, we would see inflation most in agricultural commodities. During the month of September alone we saw huge gains in agricultural commodities like soybeans +9.5%, rice +10%, corn +12%, orange juice +13%, cotton +17.5%, and sugar +19.3%.

All countries are now in a war with each other to have the weakest currency, with the false belief that having a strong currency destroys their export markets. When history looks back to the time period we are currently in, our world leaders (especially our elected representatives in Washington) will be considered the most incompetent and corrupt in world history. NIA’s new documentary being released later this month will expose the U.S. societal collapse from a perspective that has never been addressed before by anybody in the media. NIA’s co-founders are currently on their way to Kingston, NY, to interview Gerald Celente, the most accurate trends forecaster of all time. His interview in ‘Meltup’ was widely considered to be the most insightful and eye-opening economic interview to ever be a part of any documentary and his interview in our new documentary promises to be even better.

If you would like your friends and family members to be the first to see NIA’s new upcoming documentary, please tell them to become a member of NIA for free at http://inflation.us

Richard Russell has made his subscribers fortunes. One of the best values anywhere in the financial world at only a $300 subscription to get his DAILY report for a year. HERE to subscribe. Amongst his achievements Richard was in cash before the 2008/2009 Crash and he has been Bullish Gold since below $300

NIA’s new documentary about America’s Societal Collapse is now 80% complete. We are conducting some very important interviews for the documentary this week. We will be releasing this must see movie later this month. Be sure to have all of your friends and family members become members of NIA for free as soon as possible!

This will be the best documentary ever released in the history of the Internet because we included most of the ideas that were submitted to us by NIA members (we have the most educated membership base in the world)!

Our legal disclaimer: http://inflation.us/legaldisclaimer.html

There are those who strongly believe that emerging market growth is fueling fantastic demand for metals of all kinds — precious metals, industrial metals and “semi-precious” metals. Others look at the U.S. dollar’s decade-long slide, viewing commodities as an effective currency hedge against continuous greenback devaluation.

Warren Buffett hints at bond bubble

Buffett hints at bond bubble

Investors buying bonds at the prevailing high prices are ‘making a mistake,’ billionaire investor Warren Buffett said.

Buffett, speaking Tuesday at Fortune’s Most Powerful Women Summit in Washington, said it’s “quite clear stocks are cheaper than bonds” now. He added that he “can’t imagine” the rationale for adding bonds to your portfolio at current prices.

The Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) chief made the remarks in an interview with Fortune’s Carol Loomis at the 12th annual summit. He said in response to a question by Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs that investors will eventually regain confidence in the stock market – but he can’t say when.

warren buffet bonds bubbly

 

…..read more HERE

Quotable – Blow-hard Buffet talking his book again?

The marriage of Buffett’s suddenly unbridled optimism and China’s perceived invulnerability is a fascinating milestone. Just two years after pushing a “buy American” campaign, Buffett is leaning toward a “buy Chinese” one.

Terry Gou, chairman of Foxconn Technology Group, which makes parts for Apple Inc. iPhones, accuses BYD of stealing trade secrets. That, Foxconn claims in court documents, helped BYD double revenue from its handset business from 2005 through 2007. BYD countersued, claiming Foxconn gathered false evidence and conspired to hurt its business. 

Gou is critical of Buffett, too. “He doesn’t know the technology,” Gou told Bloomberg Businessweek last month, referring to the batteries used in electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. “He just used his name to speculate on the stock.”

William Pesek, full story on Bloomberg

Commentary & Analysis

A different way of saying the same thing: fiat Armageddon (except for in Europe?).

Let’s start off by paraphrasing a quote we came across earlier today: 

Everyone is trying to depreciate their currency except Europe.

Here’s a piece we took from Reuters today:

The Bank of Japan is getting the message. The U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have engaged heavily in quantitative easing to avert deflation. Now the BoJ, kicked by Japan’s politicians, is talking about QE and achieving “price stability”
.

And in last Friday’s audio/visual summary we made this analogy:

Quantitative easing is to the Federal Reserve … what qualitative easing is to the European Central Bank

The currency wars began a while ago—the financial press is now catching on as a theme fit to
print.  As we all know, China is at the center of this war and the primary aggressor. 

Though undeclared still, with lots of covert activity, much is becoming clear.  Even Europe is stepping up to the plate to criticize China.  Eurozone officials followed through on yesterday’s report that they would pressure China to free up the yuan so as to reduce “competitive” pressure on American and European businesses.

“So, in retrospect, it is a powerful reason why gold is hitting new all-time highs seemingly every day. It appears gold is telling us currency wars is equivalent to fiat Armageddon.  We of course aren’t there yet … but … “

…..read more HERE

10/04/10 Tampa, Florida – Bill Bonner here at The Daily Reckoning is one of those guys who, for some reason, figures that we (represented, apparently, by me) are smart enough to “connect the dots,” when some of us (again, me as “everyman”) are obviously not smart enough to engage in such mental gymnastics.

For example, as the gold-bug, Austrian school of economics, gun nut, paranoid, lunatic, greedy lowlife that I am, I am instantly alerted to buy more gold when he writes, “Gold makes up only 1.7% of China’s foreign exchange reserves. Many analysts believe China is targeting a 10% figure. If so, it would have to buy every ounce the world produces for two and a half years. Or, if it relies on only its own production – China is the world’s largest producer – it would take nearly 20 years of steady accumulation to reach the 10% level.”

‘“Wow!” I said to myself!

The problem for me is that China’s annual production of gold is, obviously, relatively fixed in the short run and, due to depletion of a finite resource, bound to hit something like Peak Chinese Gold, especially since gold and gold mining are not new to China!

So this “20 years of buying all internally produced gold” figure also supposes that China’s foreign exchange reserves will not grow at all – zero growth! – for 20 years.

Watch carefully here, as I note this inevitability of China accumulating more foreign reserves, which is, I figure, a dot to be connected! A dot!

I was so happy to have discovered a “dot” that I quit work early and went out to have a few congratulatory drinks to celebrate, and thus only needed one more dot to have something to connect! Wow! This is the kind of thing of which careers are made!

Sadly, I never did discover another dot, no matter how much I drank and/or thought about it, and I ended up getting really smashed, which is, admittedly, how I would have ended up if I had celebrated actually discovering another dot, and actually connected something.

So, either way, I ended up the same! It’s a win-win situation! Hahaha!

But it was still a rewarding experience, as towards the end of the night I noticed, as I “relaxed” on the floor of the bar, that the old wooden floor was tilted. Because of this slope in the floor, and my unique perspective of lying face-down on the ground in a puddle of what I hope was only beer, I could see by the light of some neon beer signs and a jukebox that two puddles of some unidentified liquid were slowly draining downhill, and the trails of them both curved down and around in big arcs. Arcs! Of course!

“Eureka!” I shouted, which caused the rest of the patrons to shout out, almost as one, “Alaska!” and then, apparently, argue about whether or not Eureka was the capital of Alaska, and if it wasn’t the capital of Alaska, then what is the capital, you loudmouth, which evolved into a discussion of who is calling who a loudmouth and who is going to do something about it, with or without the help of some alluded-to army.

“No, you morons!” I shouted from where I lay on the filthy floor, prostrate and stinking of beer, “I emulate the excited exclamation of Archimedes upon discovering the principle of specific gravity to indicate that I see, glinting in the glaring neon of the beer signs of this dreary little bar, the curving, upward-sloping line of China’s foreign reserves rising exponentially faster than the upward-sloping line of their internal production of gold, meaning that China cannot ever have enough internally-produced gold to equal 10% of their reserves if foreign reserves keep rising unless gold goes up a lot – a lot! – in price when priced in the currencies of those reserves, one of them being the dollar!

In that case, gold will go up wonderfully up in price!

Otherwise the Chinese are going to need to buy a lot – a lot! – of gold from the rest of the world, which will also drive up the price a lot – a lot! – to the point where today’s gold-bug people are going to be rich, rich, rich, and who will be a happy band of people who abruptly disappear from one town and mysteriously appear in another, fabulously wealthy, sporting nice clothes and snazzy new convertibles, and about whom lurid, wickedly delicious stories are told in whispers.

Fortunately, the Austrian school of economics and the Mogambo Lazy Bum Portfolio Plan (MLBPP) both figured that this was going to happen, and while I can’t speak for an entire school of economics, the MLBPP dictated that one should buy gold, silver and oil when the Federal Reserve is creating so outrageously, so unbelievably, so insanely much new money.

And because merely buying gold, silver and oil is so easy, one can only say, “Whee! This investing stuff is easy!”

The Mogambo Guru
for The Daily Reckoning

Richard Daughty (Mogambo Guru) is general partner and COO for Smith Consultant Group, serving the financial and medical communities, and the writer/publisher of the Mogambo Guru economic newsletter, an avocational exercise to better heap disrespect on those who desperately deserve it. The Mogambo Guru is quoted frequently in Barron’s, The Daily Reckoning , and other fine publications.

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