Daily Updates

Update: Stocks Bonds Gold US Dollar Oil

Posted by Peter Grandich - Grandich.com

on Monday, 4 October 2010 14:08

On Major Moves, Grandich has been very right and not only saved many investors fortunes, but expanded them dramatically. On November 3, 2007 at the MoneyTalks Survival Conference, Peter Grandich of the Grandich Letter warned that “an unprecedented economic tsunami will hit American beginning in 2008”.   Peter advised publicly to short the US market two days from the top in October, 2007 and stayed short until the last week of October, 2008. He began to buy stocks in March 7th,  2009. He also bought oil and oil related investments near the lows after the dive from $147.
….go to visit Peter’s Website.

U.S. Stock Market – I noted in my September 23rd post that despite poor fundamentals, the technical picture of the market was much brighter. A run to the upper end of the trading range was possible and even more likely now that we’ve broke above the previously mentioned neckline. The trading range I’ve spoken about continues and it appears we can now test the top of it. If this occurs, it may offer speculators a chance to implement some bearish call spreads. Stay tuned.

Sp500

Gold and Silver – I noted about midday last Friday to book some profits as some overbought readings were showing up on my charts. This is in no way anything remotely close to some bearish stance but rather 25+ years of experience  has taught me to take something off the table during the times you have been on target.

Gold

A day, a week or even a little longer sideways to somewhat lower would actually be a good thing IMHO. If we just shoot up again this week, we could set ourselves up for a far sharper correction then is needed at this time.

U.S. Dollar – It’s becoming too easy to predict its ups and downs. Eating broken glass after peering into a crystal ball for over 25 years makes it much easier at my age now to put my tail between my legs versus beat my chest for all to see. We should see some consolidation under the 80 area before the next leg lower.

USD

U.S. Bonds, Oil and Natural Gas – I continue to hold no positions long or short in my model asset allocation

Bonds

Click here to download Jack Crooks report.

You may be asking yourself, did the central banks ever control the gold market? Yes, indeed they did! The gold Standard was the ultimate system of control they had until it was dropped. Then President Roosevelt’s Administration took control of the U.S. gold market when he confiscated all U.S. citizens held gold. Ownership of gold was only re-permitted in the early seventies. Even then the ‘powers that be’ declared that gold ownership was a privilege, not a right. That still holds. Few really appreciate the extent of central bank control over the gold market and gold price. We believe it is a critical aspect of the gold market and gold price, without which one cannot really understand the gold market.

Read more…

In Today’s Breakfast with Dave

– U.S.A. Today: We want to emphasize how important it is to go back and re-read these two articles in Wednesday’s USA Today edition — Mortgage Rates Fail to Motivate and Recession’s Impact on Us

– Gold still shining: We may not have a whole lot of conviction over the corporate profit outlook, but we do have conviction over the looming growth rate of fiat currency; gold, and silver, are likely going much higher still

– Housing affordability in the U.S. surges … so what?

– Renewed housing deflation… the culprit? A new wave of foreclosure supply is saturating the market

– Talk about insatiable investor income appetite: investors gobbled up $100bln of investment-grade bonds so far this month

– U.S. regional manufacturing indicators are mixed

…..read it all HERE

 

 

Mid-Week Market Report on SP500, Oil, Gold & Dollar

Wednesday the market didn’t tell us anything new. The equities market is still over extended on the daily chart but the market is refusing to break down. Each time there has been seen selling in the market over the past two weeks, the market recovers. Equities and the dollar have been trading with an inverse relationship and it seems to drop every in value each selling pressure enters the market, which naturally lifts stocks.

That being said, sellers are starting to come into the market at these elevated levels and it’s just a matter of time before we see a healthy pullback/correction. The past 10 session volatility has been creeping up as equities try to sell off. There will be a point when a falling dollar is not bullish for stocks but until then it looks like printing of money will continue devaluing of the dollar to help lift the stock market. Some type of pullback is needed if this trend is to continue and the markets can only be held up for so long.

Below is a chart of the USO oil fund and the SPY index fund. Crude has a tendency to provide an early warning sign for the strength of the economy. As you can see from the April top, oil started to decline well before the equities market did. This indicated a slow down was coming.

The recent equities rally which started in late August has been strong. But take a look at the price of oil. It has traded very flat during that time indicating the economy has not really picked up, nor does it indicate any growth in the coming months. This rally just may be coming to an end shortly.

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