Daily Updates

I cannot overemphasize the critical importance of factoring the bond market into any analysis of the crisis now.” That was the sentence I started yesterday’s update with, and it’s probably the sentence I should start every update with, for the next six months!”

“I see a lot of gold analysts trying to gauge the “gold market correction” but they are seemingly unaware that the bond market just imploded, and Bill Gross basically issued a massive sell signal on his own fund, the world’s largest bond fund. For the past few months I’ve urged you to understand that when the bond implodes, there would be initial weakness in gold followed by tremendous strength. Here and now, the words “Gold” and “Bond” must be mentioned in the same sentence, or you are out to gold market analysis lunch.”

….read more “Bond Mkt Implosion & Gold Tactics” HERE

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks was significantly bearish yesterday.

Technical action by TSX Composite stocks also was significantly bearish

FX Trading – Sick and tired of “sanction of the victim”

“It is a moral crime to give money to support ideas with which you disagree. It is 
a moral crime to give money to support your own destroyers.” –
Ayn Rand

Is it a stretch to say the Chinese wish to destroy the United States?  Maybe!  But it isn’t a      stretch to say that China wants to become the primary global economic and military power in the world.  It is why the G‐20 was so fresh with irony. We have China and Germany teaming together for the “sanction of the victim” ‐‐ the United States. Even though it is US liquidity that is keeping both their economies afloat, now that Germany has become attached at the Chinese hip.  

You know what they say boys: Be careful what you wish for … it may come true!  I guess it doesn’t translate well into either Chinese or German.  

Bashed, indeed, Mr. Obama was at the G‐20; and for a lot of good reasons.  But, the reality is this problem in the global economy is first and foremost a global imbalanc problem with China and Germany (to a lesser degree) as the two spoiled children creating a problem they fail to admit.

German Finance Minister Schauble, tell us again how that single currency regime, structured primarily by your country to your own benefit by creating a captive market for your industrialists knowing all too well by locking the other countries into a system whereby they cannot adjust to compete with Germany’s efficiencies, i.e. the straightjacket of the euro, is working for you?   

Oh yes, you are correct Mr. Schauble ‐‐ it is working very well.  Germany is sucking the air completely out of the eurozone as the others are wheezing on life support.  Nicely done!  And you hammer the US for liquidity generation?  That is fresh!  

Why so fresh?  Well it is US liquidity and ability to take on China’s huge manipulated trade surplus that is creating the demand for Germany’s industrial orders, Mr. Schauble, in case you hadn’t noticed.  Ahh … no good turn goes unpunished, does it Mr. Schauble?    

But not to be outdone in the hypocrisy department, China, always one to love sanctioning its victims, tries to turn the G‐20 into a US bash fest.  And because the so‐ called leaders of most other countries are a bunch of weenies, afraid China will turn its….

….go directly to page 2 HERE

3 Critical Themes & Trades

Three Themes and Setups to End an Interesting Year in FX

Until recently most observers expected the US dollar to test new lows by year end 2010.  We see three major themes that have quickly changed that dynamic as we close out the year.  Here is a look at the three themes and three major trade setups that could result: 

1. Quantitative easing was already in the price!

  • Dollar Bullish: The improving US interest rate differential is a real change a likely big driver. The US dollar and interest rates have been in a very tight positive correlation. That correlation continues apace, but now it is moving in a favorable way for the US dollar.  Most didn’t expect that to result from further Fed ease through QE2.  Here is the primary correlation we have been watching for several months:

US -Germany 6-month yield spread versus the US dollar index: As you can see, as the yield differential got worse for the US dollar (black line going down) relative to Germany (Europe), the dollar sank in unison.  Surprisingly to a lot of players, this yield differential has changed directions since the Fed initiated its second round of quantitative easing and the dollar has reacted accordingly.

US_Dollar1117

…go directly to Page 2 of Themes HERE

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