AGENDA
**Subject to change

Friday, February 3, 2017 – 1:00pm to 9:00pm

Produced by McIver Capital Management

Ethan Dang, Portfolio Manager with McIver Capital Management in Vancouver.

www.McIverWealth.com

A recent study produced by Resonance Consultancy indicates folks are on the move to the Okanagan in general and Kelowna in particular. Resonance is a Vancouver-based firm that produces ongoing original research into what moves people to places and products. A large number of British Columbians and Albertans are targeting Kelowna and the Okanagan as a possible in-migration destination. The findings were part of their ‘Future of BC Housing’ study. 

The study projects that over the next five years, more than four in 10 home owners and seven in 10 renters are planning to buy, or rent, a different home. Three-quarters of those say they plan to stay in the same city or region but, of those planning a change, 13 per cent chose Kelowna and the Thompson-Okanagan as a most likely destination. The survey also shows people continue to be concerned about the state of housing with 74 per cent saying housing is unaffordable.

Kelowna, which is described as the urban heart of the Okanagan, has moved into the top 5 areas in BC for attracting young workers. The job creation within its tech sector and the relative affordability of housing are cited as two of the main drivers.  This is also impacting the demand for new multifamily housing – rental and for sale – in the central, more pedestrian oriented downtown resulting in accelerated absorptions and pricing.  In addition to attracting younger folks, the downsizing trend is observed locally and by residents from large urban centres and from smaller cities and towns in BC and Alberta. This is expected to be a long-term trend.

Mark West, President of local real estate firm Epic Real Estate Solutions, had this to say, “This accelerating demand trend is a big reason the downtown property markets are experiencing a resurgence. This is certain to drive several new development opportunities in the region and in downtown Kelowna over the next five to seven years.”

The Okanagan Valley, while experiencing a demographic shift, remains a desired new locale for aging baby boomers. W. Scott Brown, President of Fifth Avenue Real Estate Marketing Limited, a project marketing organization active in Kelowna and Metro Vancouver, expounded, “We recently completed the analysis of our buyer profile following the rapid and successful launch of a 21-storey concrete high-rise located in the residential heart of downtown Kelowna. Approximately 52 percent of the buyers were technically baby boomers in terms of age, coming from Metro Vancouver and smaller centres outside the region. Eighty percent of these out of market buyers were from Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.  The majority of the buyers are professionals or business owners buying with an eye towards semi or full time retirement.”

“During the design face our research led us to modify the mix of homes to be offered, not once, but twice, to meet the demand for larger spaces.” Brown added.

In a recent article in BC Business, Kelowna, which is described as the urban heart of the Okanagan, is noted to have moved into the top 5 areas in BC for attracting young workers. The job creation in its tech sector and the relative affordability of housing are cited as two of the main drivers.  This is also impacting the demand for new multifamily housing – rental and for sale – in the central, more pedestrian-oriented downtown resulting in accelerated absorptions and pricing. The job growth is continued to be buoyed by the nearly completed downtown office of the Interior Health Authority and the Okanagan Centre for Innovation. More than 1,200 permanent jobs will be injected into the downtown core.

Investors and primary residents alike are looking to Kelowna for more affordable and viable options. So, it’s no surprise to see the Okanagan Mainline Board reporting an increase of 28.8% with average prices up 12.7% to $409,500^(2).  In addition, the Okanagan Valley has recently experienced a demographic shift (no longer just a baby boomer, recreation or retirement focus for real estate sales), with the migration of every age group consistently on the rise. W. Scott Brown, President of Fifth Avenue Real Estate Marketing Limited, a project marketing organization active in Kelowna and Metro Vancouver stated, “The job growth combined with the current trend towards downsizing, and the number of prospective buyers from across the country looking to the Okanagan region as a desirable place to live, makes Kelowna a great place to invest today and tomorrow”.

According a recent report by the Okanagan Mainland Real Estate Board there was an increase in sales in the Central Okanagan by nearly 50 per cent. At the same time, a number of sources have reported that Vancouver sales volumes were down approximately 32 per cent compared to last year. 

Colin Basran, the youthful Mayor of Kelowna, thinks his community will continue to be a draw for younger talent. “People who don’t know Kelowna well would have thought of Kelowna as retirement destination. Over the last five years that has changed dramatically,” commented Basran.

That being said, “The market is and will continue to attract downsizers locally and from outside the region,” commented Mark West, President of Kelowna-based real estate marketing organization Epic Real Estate. “Kelowna’s downtown, with its pedestrian friendly access to a number of amenities has shown a strong appeal among intergenerational consumers from the local area and from metro Vancouver,” added West, who continued “Over the last 90 days we have seen a big spike in Chinese investment, as they feel Vancouver is over-priced now.”

Supply is also an issue in Kelowna. Presently, only one high rise is actively being marketed downtown. The project is called 1151 Sunset Drive and is being developed by Kerkhoff Construction. This 21-storey concrete high-rise is nestled in the residential heart of downtown Kelowna – steps to restaurants, entertainment and the lake. 1151 Sunset offers 109 homes ranging in size from 650 to 2,157 sq. ft. (including 7 townhomes at the podium). Approximately 60% of the project has been sold since the presale launch in late October.  See website for details at www.1151sunset.com.

“Demand for multifamily product in the area is largely influenced by youthful new residents and an ever-aging population looking to divest of single family homes in the area that have appreciated significantly over the past 10 to 20 years, and a great deal in the last 12 months with the average single family home sale” expounded Brown, who is also the marketer for 1151 Sunset Drive.

No, Make That Something “Historical” Is Happening

• The 5000 year bottom in interest rates is in
• The 35 year bull market in bonds is over
• The Brexit vote & Donald Trump’s victory confirm the beginning of a major change in politics
• The Dow Jones has exploded to new highs since Nov 9^th
• Gold has broken down 

I’m sure you’re busy. I certainly am given all the happenings in the economy and markets but what’s going on is so incredible that it merits my time in bringing it to your attention.  From Uber testing self-driving taxis in Pittsburgh to over $1 trillion in bond losses in the last two weeks. And then there’s the devastation to emerging market currencies and emerging market bonds.
 
Donald Trump’s victory was just one more sign of the kind of historical changes we’ve predicted at the World Outlook Financial Conference and on MoneyTalks since 2009. Everything’s on schedule – lots of money is going to be made and lost.
 
What’s about to happen is going to make the last five years seem tame. My goal is to make sure you are protected and profit financially. Unfortunately the vast majority of people won’t be. Just look at the beginning of the unworkable pension mess in Dallas, Chicago and Puerto Rico. Consider that Illinois’ pension liability is now 280% of its entire annual tax revenues. This is not going to end well.
 
Neither is the European Union with its $2.3 trillion in negative interest rate bonds.  Mark December 4 on your calendar as the Austrians vote in a presidential election, while the same day Italians vote in a referendum on parliamentary reform. Both votes have become a proxy for anti-EU sentiments. The Italian Prime Minister has said he will step down if the referendum is defeated.
 
As we’ve been predicting on MoneyTalks since 2010, the European Union will come apart and the financial repercussions are huge. We’ve been saying that playing the euro to go down (first recommended at 1.54 to the dollar, now 1.06) was a fundamental long term position – hence it was to be sold on any rally. (Hint: there’s more to come and the US stock market will be a major beneficiary.)
 
The euro recommendation illustrates the approach we take at the World Outlook Financial Conference and on MoneyTalks. You start by getting the big picture right and then devise strategies to take advantage of it.
 
Right now we are seeing that approach validated by what’s going on in the gold market. Contrary to the vast majority of analysts, my guess has been that the big move was still two years away and that there would be another major buying opportunity when the US dollar tops.  Today’s break below $1200 greatly increases the probability that scenario is forthcoming. I will explain that in more detail along with Martin Armstrong at the Outlook Conference.
 
That’s what I love about investment markets. You don’t have to be good looking and charming – you just have to get it right. In the end there’s no BS, no stories, no excuses – just results.
 
And our record at the World Outlook Financial Conference speaks for itself.
 
Our #1 recommendation since October, 2012 has been to put between 30% and 50% of your money into the US dollar. At the same time we recommended quality dividend paying US stocks and real estate in the Phoenix area.
 
We warned of the drop in commodities including gold when it was still $1800. Heck we even held a special conference warning of the drop to below $1100.
 
At the Outlook Conference in early 2014 our energy analyst, Josef Schachter stood up and warned, when oil was well over $100, that it was about to decline to the $32-$34 level. He still think there’s a washout to come in December.  He will be at this year’s Outlook to discuss where the bottom is and how to play it.   
 
My Point
 
Brexit and then Donald Trump’s victory were clearly predicted by the incredible Martin Armstrong at the World Outlook Financial Conference, and he will be back to lay out the path going forward. This year’s conference will focus on how you can profit by understanding these trends.
 
Every year our specific recommendations pay for the price of a ticket several times over. Keystone’s Ryan Irvine will be back to present his 2017 World Outlook Small Cap Portfolio.  While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, it is impressive that the Outlook Small Cap portfolio has achieved double digit returns every single year. We’ll talk the loonie with James Thorne and Martin Armstrong, real estate opportunities with Ozzie and Jeff Olin, gold with Mark Leibovit plus a range of essential personal finance mini seminars.
 
My Point
 
Janice, I want you to come to the World Outlook Financial Conference. I want you to bring a young person (free for the first 100 with the purchase of a ticket.) Why? Because we’re living in a time of historical change.  Textbooks are going to be written about this period. People who don’t understand what’s going on are going to get killed financially. Of course they already are. Companies have been devastated. So have countries.
 
I not only think we can protect you but that we can make you a lot of money.  If anyone took our numerous recommendation to move money into the US they’ve done well. It’s not that tough if you understand what going on. So I hope you make time to come.
 
Then again, maybe you’re not interested – and believe me I get that. Maybe you are already on top of things. Maybe there’s something good on tv. I have no idea. All I know is that periods of historic change provide incredible opportunities and incredible danger.
 
All I’m trying to do is help you avoid the danger part and take advantage of the opportunities.
 
The World Outlook Financial Conference is on Friday Feb 3rd and Saturday Feb 4th at the Westin Bayshore in Vancouver. I have spent a ton of time on the Conference program and sincerely think it is the most interesting – dare I say entertaining – and valuable we’ve ever done.
 
For tickets and other details go to www.moneytalks.net and click on the events button.
 
I hope to see you there.
 
Sincerely
Mike
 
PS.  My team has put together a fabulous VIP package again this year. I’ll just mention one of the eleven bonus items. VIP ticket buyers will get a special report from Ryan Irvine on an under-utilized, but incredibly valuable investment option called a Dividend Re-Investment Program. His DRIP report sells for $499. VIP buyers get it for free!
 
Finally
 
As you may know I am hugely interested in educating our younger generation and to that end we have a special offer – if you buy a ticket – you can bring a students absolutely free. The only thing is that we ask you to let us know that you want a student ticket when you purchase your ticket. We have a limited number set aside and we want to be able to accommodate you.