Timing & trends

Why Tech Is Far & Large The Biggest Thing This Millennium – Lehman, EU Crisis Included

DSC 8980I can, without a shadow of a doubt, declare that the technology paradigm shift whose precipice we now teeter, is by far and large the most significant event of the last 8 years. Now, considering the events of the last 8 years, that’s saying an awful lot. So what makes this event so much more important than the event of the last 13 years?

It’s the advent of truly usable Contextual Computing!

The prospects for this tech are outrageous. I have already started putting my mind into intense problem solving mode, and the medical, real estate and hospitality industries are on tap to witness some dramatic changes in the way business is done. 

….read & view it all HERE 

Gold & Oil, Where to Go if the Middle East Explodes!

The Oil Price…if the Middle East Explodes

We preface by saying that this is still a “what if” scenario…

In the unlikely event that a limited strike on the Syrian government’s ability to launch nerve gas on its population through air strikes, rocket attacks or artillery shells has no other effect on the religious war, then we doubt that the impact of such a strike will send shock waves throughout the Middle East.

But, such a strike would weaken the government’s heavy weapons capacities, and so even the battlefield for the Sunni rebels against the Shi’ite government and increase the ferocity and sectarian nature of the war. At some point (as with that first gunshot that started the First World War) sectarian ferocity would infect other nations and bring new destructive tactics to the war on a regional basis.

Questions that then need to be asked are:

Would Shi’ites turn on the oilfields in their area, such as in Saudi Arabia and other West Persian Gulf States and damage production? That alone would send the oil price over $150 or higher as supplies became interrupted and vulnerable. The speed with which Kuwaiti oilfields were repaired gives us a time perspective on how long successful repairs to interrupted oil fields would take. But that would not remove the Shi’ite workers from those regions. The implications are that Saudi as well as U.S. [?] troops would be used to guard those fields, quickly.

Would Iran be emboldened to interfere with the oil passing through the Straits of Hormuz? This seems unlikely for while it is the jugular of Middle Eastern oil, the U.S. has placed its navy so as to prevent that from happening. Nevertheless threats of such action would warrant nations stocking up their oil supplies, taking prices even higher.

Because of the ongoing risks, would global financial markets keep oil prices high until the conflict were over? We think that prices over $150+ a barrel, would deeply impact global economic growth and inflation, affecting nearly all people on earth. This alone would be a game-changer for all financial markets.

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….much more analysis & Charts HERE

Gold Bull & Debt Bear Market In 50 Amazing Charts

In an excellent collection of 50 charts, Ronald Stoeferle presents all fundamental data related to gold’s bull market and the too-big-to-fail debt bubble. Stoeferle is Managing Director at Incrementum Liechtenstein and writer of the famous In Gold We Trust reports.

The charts cover three major themes: gold, debt and economy, currency debasement. In this article, we highlight the ten most powerful charts. They tell the complete fundamental story and lay out the most likely scenario going forward. The full presentation is mandatory study material.

The debt bubble keeps on growing. The nominal amounts are beyond imagination. The key take-away here is the diminishing rate of return of a marginal unit of debt. In other words, central planners need to create increasingly more debt for less economic growth. That is worrisome, to say the least. By the way, did you know how much debt has been created per citizen (on average)? Please don’t try to imagine this figure also applies to yourself. It is no information for the faint-hearted.

credit market debt vs gdp vs monetary base 1971 2013

 

 

Michael’s Sept 10th Comment on the student expectations for employment post-university and the reality of their training.

CLICK HERE to listen

Critical Market Junctures

Gold – We need to watch gold closely as it’s at a critical junction. After getting above initial resistance around $1,350, it has wobbled at next key resistance around $1,425 – $1,450. It’s critical gold remain above the $1,350 area and eventually get above $1,450 to put a nail in the coffin of those who have tried to break its back and still are out there as we speak.

U.S. Stock Market – It’s been my belief for quite some time now that the U.S. stock market won’t see a major sell-off until such time the perception of the FED goes from being in front of the curve to behind. I suggested this could occur as fall took hold and the economy accelerates to the downside, causing any “tapering” to end and cries for more trillions to be created and thrown at the economy  increase.

Last Friday’s employment numbers are just another indicator that the U.S. economy is very weak despite trillions created to make it stronger and now shall also choke off real economic expansion thanks to a debt crisis that only gets bigger each day.

While the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd can spin “tapering” into a good thing for now, the weight of years of total fiscal mismanagement and a monetary policy gone wild is setting us up for yet another economic crisis that the those who normally bail it out will need a bail-out themselves.

I would use continued strength in U.S. equities to lower exposure greatly and limit my general equities holdings to companies outside the U.S.

U.S. Bonds – While we may see a respite to rising rates in the short term, the worse investment for the next decade remains just that.

U.S. Dollar – The trading range has become so tight that movements that in the past wouldn’t even batter an eye now cause long-winded responses. It’s kissing your sister until further notice.

Mining and Exploration Shares – While clearly off the bottom, the heavy damage from the worse bear market in my 30-year career still lingers – especially as one goes down the food chain to juniors. I don’t see how that changes until either gold gets above $1,550 or we officially have said good-bye to 2013.

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…..more at Grandich.com